Climate in the Czech Republic without consideration of climate change data Czech Republic Climate data source: Portál ČHMÚ : Historická data : Počasí : Základní informace (chmi.cz) 1961-2020 Portál ČHMÚ : Historická data : Počasí : Územní teploty (chmi.cz) 2020-2023 "Výpočet percentilů v Excelu – Kurzy, konzultace, návody (exceltown.com)" Help instruction: "Learn to rearrange the climate data table by a selected column, for example, by coldest January (as used) or by year." "Learn to rearrange the climate data table by a selected column, for example, by coldest January (as used) or by year." "It is necessary to have ""EXCEL supplements"" actively installed: ""solver"" and ""analytical tools"" (usually installed via File/Options/Add-ons).)" "First of all, compare Table 1 of the temperatures for the year 2023 with the pages of the ČMHU that are valid for the Czech Republic." Task: Complete the data in the yellow-colored fields in both sheets. Do not change the graphs (they are updated automatically). Table 1: Climate data residuum di n Year January February March April May Juni July August September October November December Average January 1 1961 -3.40 1.70 5.10 10.7 10.2 16.2 15.2 15.7 15 9.4 2.7 -3.2 2 1962 -1.20 -2.10 -1.10 8.6 9.7 13.8 15.1 16.7 11.8 7.5 2.4 -5.5 3 1963 -8.90 -6.90 0.60 8.1 12 16 18 16.5 13.8 7.4 6.4 -5.6 4 1964 -5.90 -2.30 -1.20 8.3 12.8 17.5 17.8 15.1 12.6 6.7 3.7 -1.7 5 1965 -0.80 -4.70 0.70 6.1 10.2 15.2 15.5 14.7 12.7 6.5 -0.3 0.7 6 1966 -5.40 3.70 2.20 9.1 12.4 16.2 15.9 15.3 12.4 11.3 1.8 -0.1 7 1967 -2.50 0.40 4.10 6.5 12.6 15 18.5 16.2 13.8 10.3 2.6 -1.5 8 1968 -3.70 -0.20 3.30 8.5 11.2 16.2 16.1 15.7 12.6 8.4 3.4 -3.7 9 1969 -2.90 -2.90 -0.40 6.7 14.2 14.8 17.9 15.5 13.1 8.8 4.2 -6.3 10 1970 -3.90 -2.70 0.30 5.7 10.6 16.3 16.7 16.3 11.9 7.4 4.7 -1.1 11 1971 -3.60 -0.20 -0.30 8 13.7 13.8 17.7 18.4 10.7 7.1 2.1 2.1 12 1972 -3.90 1.00 4.60 6.7 11.7 15.5 17.8 15.7 10.2 5.3 3.2 -1.3 13 1973 -1.80 -0.20 3.10 4.9 12.3 15.3 16.6 17.1 13.7 6 1.1 -1.5 14 1974 0.80 2.30 5.60 7.2 10.9 13.4 15.2 17.7 12.6 4.4 2.8 2.6 15 1975 2.00 -1.10 3.20 6.4 12.6 14.6 17.6 17.4 15.5 7.1 1.3 -0.6 16 1976 -1.10 -1.20 -0.50 6.8 12.4 16.2 18.4 14.6 11.7 9 4.1 -2.4 17 1977 -1.80 0.80 5.40 5.4 11.9 16 16.1 15.6 10.7 8.8 3.8 -1.2 18 1978 -1.00 -3.10 3.70 6.1 10.8 14.2 15 14.5 11.5 8.1 1.9 -0.8 19 1979 -5.80 -2.00 3.30 5.9 13 17.6 14.6 15.5 12.6 6.6 2.5 2.6 20 1980 -5.10 0.50 1.70 4.6 9.7 14.4 14.7 15.9 12.2 7 1.3 -1.3 21 1981 -4.10 -1.50 5.80 6.6 12.9 16.1 16.1 16.3 13.3 8 3 -3.3 22 1982 -5.40 -2.40 3.40 5.1 12.8 16.2 18.2 17.2 15.4 8.8 3.8 0.7 23 1983 2.20 -3.50 3.50 9 12.9 15.9 20 17.5 13.1 8 1.1 -1.5 24 1984 -1.20 -1.80 1.10 6.4 11.3 13.8 15.2 16.3 11.8 9.1 3.6 -1.2 25 1985 -7.90 -5.80 2.10 7 13.5 13 17.2 16.5 12.6 7.4 -0.2 2 26 1986 -1.70 -7.80 2.10 8.3 14.5 15.4 16.4 16.4 11.3 8.1 3.7 -0.8 27 1987 -8.10 -1.80 -2.50 7.9 10.3 14.6 17.3 14.8 14.4 8.5 3.6 0.3 28 1988 1.20 0.60 1.00 7.5 13.9 15 17.5 16.8 12.8 8.5 -0.4 0.8 29 1989 -0.30 2.20 5.60 8.1 12.8 14.4 17.3 16.7 13.7 9 0.8 0.1 30 1990 -0.40 3.40 6.00 6.5 13.3 15.4 16.5 17.9 10.8 8.5 3.5 -1.3 31 1991 -0.40 -4.60 4.80 6.3 8.9 14.3 18.7 17.1 13.9 6.8 2.5 -2.3 32 1992 -0.30 1.20 3.20 7.3 13.6 17.1 18.8 20.8 13.1 6.2 3.3 -1.5 33 1993 -0.20 -3.00 1.50 9 15 15.4 16.1 16.6 12 7.7 -0.3 1.5 34 1994 1.60 -1.30 5.40 7.5 12.4 16.3 21 18.1 13.7 6.1 5 0.9 35 1995 -2.00 3.10 2.00 8 12.1 14.5 20 17.2 11.9 9.9 0.3 -2.7 36 1996 -4.70 -4.80 -1.00 7.5 12.5 16 15.6 16.4 9.7 8.8 4.3 -5.1 37 1997 -4.50 1.40 3.60 4.7 13.1 16.1 16.5 18.2 12.7 5.7 2.7 0.7 38 1998 0.10 2.60 2.70 9.2 13.4 16.9 17.1 17.1 12.4 8.1 0.1 -1.9 39 1999 -0.40 -1.70 4.40 8.6 13.5 15.3 18.6 16.7 16 8 1.6 -0.4 40 2000 -2.40 2.10 3.50 10.9 14.7 17.3 15.4 18.4 12.6 10.8 5.4 0.6 41 2001 -1.60 0.30 3.40 6.8 14.3 14.1 17.9 18.2 11.1 11.3 1.5 -3.6 42 2002 -1.30 3.40 4.10 7.5 15.4 17.4 18.5 18.5 11.8 6.8 4.7 -2.8 43 2003 -2.40 -4.40 3.50 7.1 15 19.4 18.4 20.1 13.2 4.9 4.6 -0.6 44 2004 -3.90 0.40 2.40 8.7 11.3 15.3 17.1 18.1 12.8 9.2 3.2 -0.7 45 2005 -0.40 -3.70 1.00 8.9 13 16.1 18 15.8 14.1 9.1 2 -1.3 46 2006 -6.00 -3.00 0.10 8.1 12.7 16.9 21.3 15.1 15.5 10.1 5.6 2.3 47 2007 3.10 2.80 5.10 10.3 14.4 18.1 18.3 17.7 11.3 7.2 1.4 -0.9 48 2008 1.30 2.30 3.00 7.8 13.6 17.4 18 17.5 12 8.3 4.6 0.7 49 2009 -4.00 -1.00 3.20 12 13.3 14.9 18.1 18.4 14.7 7.2 5.5 -1 50 2010 -5.00 -1.80 2.70 8.1 11.5 16.6 20 17 11.3 6.1 5 -4.9 51 2011 -1.20 -2.00 3.90 10.5 13.3 16.9 16.3 17.9 14.6 7.8 2.5 1.9 52 2012 -0.20 -5.20 5.20 8.4 14.4 16.9 18.2 18.2 13.2 7.4 4.8 -1.4 53 2013 -1.90 -1.40 -0.70 8.1 12 15.8 19.4 17.7 11.8 9 4.1 1.2 54 2014 0.50 2.10 6.20 9.8 12.1 16 19.2 15.7 14 10 6 1.6 55 2015 0.90 -0.10 4.00 7.8 12.4 16.1 20.2 21.3 13.1 7.8 5.7 3.7 56 2016 -1.40 3.00 3.30 7.7 13.4 17.2 18.6 17 15.8 7.4 2.7 -0.5 57 2017 -5.60 1.10 5.90 6.9 13.8 18.2 18.5 18.8 11.8 9.5 3.7 0.8 58 2018 1.80 -3.50 0.80 12.7 16.2 17.5 19.7 20.6 14.5 10 4.3 1.2 59 2019 -1.70 1.70 5.60 9.4 10.7 20.7 18.8 18.9 13.3 9.5 5.6 1.9 60 2020 0.30 3.70 3.90 9.2 10.9 16.4 17.7 18.8 14 9 3.9 1.7 61 2021 -1.10 -0.80 2.60 5.4 10.6 18.8 18.8 16 14.2 8 3.6 0.4 62 2022 0.60 2.80 3.10 6.4 14.3 18.7 18.6 19.1 12 10.7 4.1 0.3 63 2023 2.00 1.20 4.70 6.4 12.6 17.2 19.6 18.6 16.5 11.1 4.1 2.1 n Year January February March April May Juni July August September October November December Average January residuum di Calendar month 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 Mean Min Max Median standard deviation " • Band - upper limit (+0,5*sdev)" " • Band - lower limit(-0,5*sdev)" Confidence at a= 0.05 • Conf. band - upper limit (+c.i.) • Conf. band - lower limit (-c.i.) Percentile 25% Percentile 75% Graph 1: Average temperature of the month without consideration of climate change. Table 2: Průměrná teplota v lednu bez uvážení klimatické změny. Ručně EXCEL Funkce Number of years n 63 63 =NUMBER(B12:B74) Degrees of freedom n Arithmetic mean Sum of squared uncertainty ∑ SDEV^2 (Here and below are all for January) Standard deviation SDEV Two-sided Student's t probability 0.05 (95%) Two-sided Student's t probability 0.0015 (99.9%) mean + confidence interval Confidence interval for a= 0.05 1.960 Confidence interval for a= 0.001 3.090 Minimum value Maximum value Median Percentile P25= 0.25 Percentile P75= 0.75 ##### Sheet/List 2 ##### Climate change in Czechia Linregression function input training according to: Reference: LINREGRESE (funkce) - Podpora Microsoftu Lineární regrese v excelu LINREGRESE() (financevpraxi.cz) eq. y=y0+b1 x "Výpočet percentilů v Excelu – Kurzy, konzultace, návody (exceltown.com)" Table 2: Climate data Functions for obtaining Student's t-coefficients: " =T.INV.2T(0,001;63-2)" Example y x Statistics: Graph 2: Dependence of the annual mean temperature on the year of observation. 38 36.1 year Temp. / C reliability band 95% 43.7 49.2 n min. max. 45.2 51.7 1 1961 7.94 46 53.9 2 1962 6.31 41.3 43 3 1963 6.45 48.1 59 4 1964 6.95 49.8 62.1 5 1965 6.38 51.8 67 6 1966 7.90 7 1967 8.00 8 1968 7.32 0.445463549 21.98929777 9 1969 6.89 0.006034883 0.323425273 10 1970 6.85 0.998900015 0.161579425 11 1971 7.46 5448.620752 6 12 1972 7.21 142.2521025 0.156647463 13 1973 7.22 14 1974 7.96 15 1975 8.00 16 1976 7.33 17 1977 7.63 a (intercept)= 18 1978 6.74 b (slope) = LINREGRESE: 19 1979 7.20 20 1980 6.30 21 1981 7.43 n= 22 1982 7.82 n=n-2= 23 1983 8.18 24 1984 7.03 25 1985 6.45 26 1986 7.16 27 1987 6.61 28 1988 7.93 29 1989 8.37 r*r= 30 1990 8.34 31 1991 7.17 32 1992 8.57 33 1993 7.61 34 1994 8.89 = = 35 1995 7.86 36 1996 6.27 37 1997 7.58 38 1998 8.15 t-coefficients: 39 1999 8.35 for 63values= 1.999623585 40 2000 9.11 Next: Significance test of parameter b for 63values= 3.457293709 41 2001 7.81 Assumption: Slope B would be =0 if climate change did not exist. 42 2002 8.67 Then and 43 2003 8.23 But after the installation: is greater than/less than This means that the assumption (hold)/(does not hold) and that there is a greater than 95% probability that climate change is/(is not) occurring. 44 2004 7.83 45 2005 7.72 46 2006 8.23 Calculation of climate warming from 1961 to 2023: 47 2007 9.07 The Czech Republic's temperature increase over the last 63 years by: Celsius 48 2008 8.88 49 2009 8.44 Tabule 3: Climate change. 50 2010 7.22 Handly EXCEL Funkction (text form) 51 2011 8.53 Number of years 63 63 =POČET(B10:B72) 52 2012 8.33 degree of freedompočet stupňů volnosti n 53 2013 7.93 54 2014 9.43 55 2015 9.41 56 2016 8.68 57 2017 8.62 58 2018 9.65 parameter a (intercept) 59 2019 9.53 parameter b (slope) 60 2020 9.13 61 2021 8.04 62 2022 9.23 viz =LINREGRESE(D10:D72;C10:C72;PRAVDA;PRAVDA) 63 2023 9.68 mean xi mean yi calculate also: calculate by hand way: = "Čím chladnější zima, tím teplejší léto." =