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@inbook{1173373,
author = {Turcsányi, Richard},
address = {Bratislava},
booktitle = {Panorama of Global Security Environment 2013},
editor = {Marian Majer, Róbert Ondrejcsák},
keywords = {South China Sea; territorial dispute; international relations in East Asia},
howpublished = {tištěná verze "print"},
language = {eng},
location = {Bratislava},
isbn = {978-80-971124-5-5},
pages = {495-506},
publisher = {Centre for European and North Atlantic Affairs},
title = {The Chessboard of South China Sea: Game Modeling of the Dispute Dynamics},
year = {2013}
}
TY - CHAP
ID - 1173373
AU - Turcsányi, Richard
PY - 2013
TI - The Chessboard of South China Sea: Game Modeling of the Dispute Dynamics
VL - Neuveden
PB - Centre for European and North Atlantic Affairs
CY - Bratislava
SN - 9788097112455
KW - South China Sea
KW - territorial dispute
KW - international relations in East Asia
N2 - South China Sea with its vast geopolitical importance continues to be also one of the world’s most problematic regions with a very unpredictable future in terms of security conditions and realities on the ground. The proposed paper will try to shed some light into the current situation by grasping the logic of interaction between the involved parties. It will focus on actions of individual states involved in the dispute, which will be treated as parts of a complex game situation, in which the states’ actions are reacting to each other. The two types of actions will be considered - ‘events establishing new trends’ and ‘incidents’; and these will be taking place on the backdrop of ‘long term tendencies’ which continue to push forward the overall distribution of power sources. The logic of moves by China, Vietnam, Philippines, and the US will be analyzed, including the available options and possible reactions to other states’ moves. It will be concluded that if the current dynamics continues to prevail, China will be step-by-step improving its standing due to favorable tendency of power distribution and established trends, heightened by the lack of capabilities and potentially high risks on the side of the opponent states; and lack of true commitment and potentially too big a burden for the US. The individual steps of the opponent countries may have only the effect of accelerating the process while at the same time creating more tensions.
ER -
TURCSÁNYI, Richard. The Chessboard of South China Sea: Game Modeling of the Dispute Dynamics. In Marian Majer, Róbert Ondrejcsák. \textit{Panorama of Global Security Environment 2013}. Bratislava: Centre for European and North Atlantic Affairs, 2013, p.~495-506. ISBN~978-80-971124-5-5.
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