The year-long unprecedented European heat and drought of 1540 –
a worst case

J 2014

The year-long unprecedented European heat and drought of 1540 – a worst case

WETTER, Oliver, Christian PFISTER, Johannes P. WERNER, Eduardo ZORITA, Sebastian WAGNER et. al.

Basic information

Original name

The year-long unprecedented European heat and drought of 1540 – a worst case

Authors

WETTER, Oliver (756 Switzerland, guarantor), Christian PFISTER (756 Switzerland), Johannes P. WERNER (276 Germany), Eduardo ZORITA (276 Germany), Sebastian WAGNER (276 Germany), Sonia I. SENEVIRATNE (756 Switzerland), Jürgen HERGET (276 Germany), Uwe GRÜNEWALD (276 Germany), Jürg LUTERBACHER (276 Germany), Maria-Joao ALCOFORADO (620 Portugal), Mariano BARRIENDOS (724 Spain), Ursula BIEBER (40 Austria), Rudolf BRÁZDIL (203 Czech Republic, belonging to the institution), Karl H. BURMEISTER (276 Germany), Chantal CAMENISCH (756 Switzerland), Antonio CONTINO (380 Italy), Petr DOBROVOLNÝ (203 Czech Republic, belonging to the institution), Rüdiger GLASER (276 Germany), Iso HIMMELSBACH (276 Germany), Andrea KISS (40 Austria), Oldřich KOTYZA (203 Czech Republic), Thomas LABBÉ (276 Germany), Danuta LIMANÓWKA (616 Poland), Laurent LITZENBURGER (250 France), Øyvind NORDLI (578 Norway), Kathleen PRIBYL (826 United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland), Dag RETSÖ (752 Sweden), Dirk RIEMANN (276 Germany), Christian ROHR (756 Switzerland), Werner SIEGFRIED (756 Switzerland), Johan SÖDERBERG (752 Sweden) and Jean-Laurent SPRING (756 Switzerland)

Edition

Climatic Change, 2014, 0165-0009

Other information

Language

English

Type of outcome

Článek v odborném periodiku

Field of Study

10500 1.5. Earth and related environmental sciences

Country of publisher

Netherlands

Confidentiality degree

není předmětem státního či obchodního tajemství

Impact factor

Impact factor: 3.430

RIV identification code

RIV/00216224:14310/14:00073833

Organization unit

Faculty of Science

DOI

http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s10584-014-1184-2

UT WoS

000339970700005

Keywords in English

documentary evidence; meteorological drought ; hydrological drought; agricultural drought; socio-economic drought; megadrought; precipitation; Europe

Abstract

V originále

The heat waves of 2003 in Western Europe and 2010 in Russia, commonly labelled as rare climatic anomalies outside of previous experience, are often taken as harbingers of more frequent extremes in the global warming-influenced future. However, a recent reconstruction of spring–summer temperatures for WE resulted in the likelihood of significantly higher temperatures in 1540. In order to check the plausibility of this result we investigated the severity of the 1540 drought by putting forward the argument of the known soil desiccation-temperature feedback. Based on more than 300 first-hand documentary weather report sources originating from an area of 2 to 3 million km2, we show that Europe was affected by an unprecedented 11-month-long Megadrought. The estimated number of precipitation days and precipitation amount for Central and Western Europe in 1540 is significantly lower than the 100-year minima of the instrumental measurement period for spring, summer and autumn. This result is supported by independent documentary evidence about extremely low river flows and Europe-wide wild-, forest- and settlement fires. We found that an event of this severity cannot be simulated by state-of-the-art climate models.

Links

GA13-04291S, research and development project

Name: Rekonstrukce hydro-klimatických podmínek jara a léta posledního milénia v České republice na základě dubové standardní chronologie

Investor: Czech Science Foundation

GA13-19831S, research and development project

Name: Hydrometeorologické extrémy na jižní Moravě odvozené z dokumentárních pramenů

Investor: Czech Science Foundation

Citovat

WETTER, Oliver, Christian PFISTER, Johannes P. WERNER, Eduardo ZORITA, Sebastian WAGNER, Sonia I. SENEVIRATNE, Jürgen HERGET, Uwe GRÜNEWALD, Jürg LUTERBACHER, Maria-Joao ALCOFORADO, Mariano BARRIENDOS, Ursula BIEBER, Rudolf BRÁZDIL, Karl H. BURMEISTER, Chantal CAMENISCH, Antonio CONTINO, Petr DOBROVOLNÝ, Rüdiger GLASER, Iso HIMMELSBACH, Andrea KISS, Oldřich KOTYZA, Thomas LABBÉ, Danuta LIMANÓWKA, Laurent LITZENBURGER, Øyvind NORDLI, Kathleen PRIBYL, Dag RETSÖ, Dirk RIEMANN, Christian ROHR, Werner SIEGFRIED, Johan SÖDERBERG and Jean-Laurent SPRING. The year-long unprecedented European heat and drought of 1540 – a worst case. Climatic Change. 2014, vol. 125, 3-4, p. 349-363. ISSN 0165-0009. Available from: https://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s10584-014-1184-2.

@article{1197047,
   author = {Wetter, Oliver and Pfister, Christian and Werner, Johannes P. and Zorita, Eduardo and Wagner, Sebastian and Seneviratne, Sonia I. and Herget, Jürgen and Grünewald, Uwe and Luterbacher, Jürg and Alcoforado, MariaandJoao and Barriendos, Mariano and Bieber, Ursula and Brázdil, Rudolf and Burmeister, Karl H. and Camenisch, Chantal and Contino, Antonio and Dobrovolný, Petr and Glaser, Rüdiger and Himmelsbach, Iso and Kiss, Andrea and Kotyza, Oldřich and Labbé, Thomas and Limanówka, Danuta and Litzenburger, Laurent and Nordli, Øyvind and Pribyl, Kathleen and Retsö, Dag and Riemann, Dirk and Rohr, Christian and Siegfried, Werner and Söderberg, Johan and Spring, JeanandLaurent},
   article_number = {3-4},
   doi = {http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s10584-014-1184-2},
   keywords = {documentary evidence; meteorological drought ; hydrological drought; agricultural drought; socio-economic drought; megadrought; precipitation; Europe},
   language = {eng},
   issn = {0165-0009},
   journal = {Climatic Change},
   title = {The year-long unprecedented European heat and drought of 1540 – a worst case},
   volume = {125},
   year = {2014}
}

TY  - JOUR
ID  - 1197047
AU  - Wetter, Oliver - Pfister, Christian - Werner, Johannes P. - Zorita, Eduardo - Wagner, Sebastian - Seneviratne, Sonia I. - Herget, Jürgen - Grünewald, Uwe - Luterbacher, Jürg - Alcoforado, Maria-Joao - Barriendos, Mariano - Bieber, Ursula - Brázdil, Rudolf - Burmeister, Karl H. - Camenisch, Chantal - Contino, Antonio - Dobrovolný, Petr - Glaser, Rüdiger - Himmelsbach, Iso - Kiss, Andrea - Kotyza, Oldřich - Labbé, Thomas - Limanówka, Danuta - Litzenburger, Laurent - Nordli, Øyvind - Pribyl, Kathleen - Retsö, Dag - Riemann, Dirk - Rohr, Christian - Siegfried, Werner - Söderberg, Johan - Spring, Jean-Laurent
PY  - 2014
TI  - The year-long unprecedented European heat and drought of 1540 – a worst case
JF  - Climatic Change
VL  - 125
IS  - 3-4
SP  - 349-363
EP  - 349-363
SN  - 01650009
KW  - documentary evidence
KW  - meteorological drought
KW  - hydrological drought
KW  - agricultural drought
KW  - socio-economic drought
KW  - megadrought
KW  - precipitation
KW  - Europe
N2  - The heat waves of 2003 in Western Europe and 2010 in Russia, commonly labelled as rare climatic anomalies outside of previous experience, are often taken as harbingers of more frequent extremes in the global warming-influenced future. However, a recent reconstruction of spring–summer temperatures for WE resulted in the likelihood of significantly higher temperatures in 1540. In order to check the plausibility of this result we investigated the severity of the 1540 drought by putting forward the argument of the known soil desiccation-temperature feedback. Based on more than 300 first-hand documentary weather report sources originating from an area of 2 to 3 million km2, we show that Europe was affected by an unprecedented 11-month-long Megadrought. The estimated number of precipitation days and precipitation amount for Central and Western Europe in 1540 is significantly lower than the 100-year minima of the instrumental measurement period for spring, summer and autumn. This result is supported by independent documentary evidence about extremely low river flows and Europe-wide wild-, forest- and settlement fires. We found that an event of this severity cannot be simulated by state-of-the-art climate models.
ER  -

WETTER, Oliver, Christian PFISTER, Johannes P. WERNER, Eduardo ZORITA, Sebastian WAGNER, Sonia I. SENEVIRATNE, Jürgen HERGET, Uwe GRÜNEWALD, Jürg LUTERBACHER, Maria-Joao ALCOFORADO, Mariano BARRIENDOS, Ursula BIEBER, Rudolf BRÁZDIL, Karl H. BURMEISTER, Chantal CAMENISCH, Antonio CONTINO, Petr DOBROVOLNÝ, Rüdiger GLASER, Iso HIMMELSBACH, Andrea KISS, Oldřich KOTYZA, Thomas LABBÉ, Danuta LIMANÓWKA, Laurent LITZENBURGER, Øyvind NORDLI, Kathleen PRIBYL, Dag RETSÖ, Dirk RIEMANN, Christian ROHR, Werner SIEGFRIED, Johan SÖDERBERG and Jean-Laurent SPRING. The year-long unprecedented European heat and drought of 1540 – a worst case. \textit{Climatic Change}. 2014, vol.~125, 3-4, p.~349-363. ISSN~0165-0009. Available from: https://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s10584-014-1184-2.

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