| WETTER, Oliver, Christian PFISTER, Johannes P. WERNER, Eduardo ZORITA, Sebastian WAGNER, Sonia I. SENEVIRATNE, Jürgen HERGET, Uwe GRÜNEWALD, Jürg LUTERBACHER, Maria-Joao ALCOFORADO, Mariano BARRIENDOS, Ursula BIEBER, Rudolf BRÁZDIL, Karl H. BURMEISTER, Chantal CAMENISCH, Antonio CONTINO, Petr DOBROVOLNÝ, Rüdiger GLASER, Iso HIMMELSBACH, Andrea KISS, Oldřich KOTYZA, Thomas LABBÉ, Danuta LIMANÓWKA, Laurent LITZENBURGER, Øyvind NORDLI, Kathleen PRIBYL, Dag RETSÖ, Dirk RIEMANN, Christian ROHR, Werner SIEGFRIED, Johan SÖDERBERG and Jean-Laurent SPRING. The year-long unprecedented European heat and drought of 1540 – a worst case. Climatic Change. 2014, vol. 125, 3-4, p. 349-363. ISSN 0165-0009. Available from: https://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s10584-014-1184-2. |
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@article{1197047,
author = {Wetter, Oliver and Pfister, Christian and Werner, Johannes P. and Zorita, Eduardo and Wagner, Sebastian and Seneviratne, Sonia I. and Herget, Jürgen and Grünewald, Uwe and Luterbacher, Jürg and Alcoforado, MariaandJoao and Barriendos, Mariano and Bieber, Ursula and Brázdil, Rudolf and Burmeister, Karl H. and Camenisch, Chantal and Contino, Antonio and Dobrovolný, Petr and Glaser, Rüdiger and Himmelsbach, Iso and Kiss, Andrea and Kotyza, Oldřich and Labbé, Thomas and Limanówka, Danuta and Litzenburger, Laurent and Nordli, Øyvind and Pribyl, Kathleen and Retsö, Dag and Riemann, Dirk and Rohr, Christian and Siegfried, Werner and Söderberg, Johan and Spring, JeanandLaurent},
article_number = {3-4},
doi = {http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s10584-014-1184-2},
keywords = {documentary evidence; meteorological drought ; hydrological drought; agricultural drought; socio-economic drought; megadrought; precipitation; Europe},
language = {eng},
issn = {0165-0009},
journal = {Climatic Change},
title = {The year-long unprecedented European heat and drought of 1540 – a worst case},
volume = {125},
year = {2014}
}
TY - JOUR
ID - 1197047
AU - Wetter, Oliver - Pfister, Christian - Werner, Johannes P. - Zorita, Eduardo - Wagner, Sebastian - Seneviratne, Sonia I. - Herget, Jürgen - Grünewald, Uwe - Luterbacher, Jürg - Alcoforado, Maria-Joao - Barriendos, Mariano - Bieber, Ursula - Brázdil, Rudolf - Burmeister, Karl H. - Camenisch, Chantal - Contino, Antonio - Dobrovolný, Petr - Glaser, Rüdiger - Himmelsbach, Iso - Kiss, Andrea - Kotyza, Oldřich - Labbé, Thomas - Limanówka, Danuta - Litzenburger, Laurent - Nordli, Øyvind - Pribyl, Kathleen - Retsö, Dag - Riemann, Dirk - Rohr, Christian - Siegfried, Werner - Söderberg, Johan - Spring, Jean-Laurent
PY - 2014
TI - The year-long unprecedented European heat and drought of 1540 – a worst case
JF - Climatic Change
VL - 125
IS - 3-4
SP - 349-363
EP - 349-363
SN - 01650009
KW - documentary evidence
KW - meteorological drought
KW - hydrological drought
KW - agricultural drought
KW - socio-economic drought
KW - megadrought
KW - precipitation
KW - Europe
N2 - The heat waves of 2003 in Western Europe and 2010 in Russia, commonly labelled as rare climatic anomalies outside of previous experience, are often taken as harbingers of more frequent extremes in the global warming-influenced future. However, a recent reconstruction of spring–summer temperatures for WE resulted in the likelihood of significantly higher temperatures in 1540. In order to check the plausibility of this result we investigated the severity of the 1540 drought by putting forward the argument of the known soil desiccation-temperature feedback. Based on more than 300 first-hand documentary weather report sources originating from an area of 2 to 3 million km2, we show that Europe was affected by an unprecedented 11-month-long Megadrought. The estimated number of precipitation days and precipitation amount for Central and Western Europe in 1540 is significantly lower than the 100-year minima of the instrumental measurement period for spring, summer and autumn. This result is supported by independent documentary evidence about extremely low river flows and Europe-wide wild-, forest- and settlement fires. We found that an event of this severity cannot be simulated by state-of-the-art climate models.
ER -
WETTER, Oliver, Christian PFISTER, Johannes P. WERNER, Eduardo ZORITA, Sebastian WAGNER, Sonia I. SENEVIRATNE, Jürgen HERGET, Uwe GRÜNEWALD, Jürg LUTERBACHER, Maria-Joao ALCOFORADO, Mariano BARRIENDOS, Ursula BIEBER, Rudolf BRÁZDIL, Karl H. BURMEISTER, Chantal CAMENISCH, Antonio CONTINO, Petr DOBROVOLNÝ, Rüdiger GLASER, Iso HIMMELSBACH, Andrea KISS, Oldřich KOTYZA, Thomas LABBÉ, Danuta LIMANÓWKA, Laurent LITZENBURGER, Øyvind NORDLI, Kathleen PRIBYL, Dag RETSÖ, Dirk RIEMANN, Christian ROHR, Werner SIEGFRIED, Johan SÖDERBERG and Jean-Laurent SPRING. The year-long unprecedented European heat and drought of 1540 – a worst case. \textit{Climatic Change}. 2014, vol.~125, 3-4, p.~349-363. ISSN~0165-0009. Available from: https://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s10584-014-1184-2.
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