J 2015

Precipitation reconstruction for the Czech Lands, AD 1501–2010

DOBROVOLNÝ, Petr, Rudolf BRÁZDIL, Mirek TRNKA, Oldřich KOTYZA, Hubert VALÁŠEK et. al.

Basic information

Original name

Precipitation reconstruction for the Czech Lands, AD 1501–2010

Authors

DOBROVOLNÝ, Petr (203 Czech Republic, guarantor, belonging to the institution), Rudolf BRÁZDIL (203 Czech Republic, belonging to the institution), Mirek TRNKA (203 Czech Republic), Oldřich KOTYZA (203 Czech Republic) and Hubert VALÁŠEK (203 Czech Republic)

Edition

International Journal of Climatology, Wiley, 2015, 0899-8418

Other information

Language

English

Type of outcome

Článek v odborném periodiku

Field of Study

10500 1.5. Earth and related environmental sciences

Country of publisher

United States of America

Confidentiality degree

není předmětem státního či obchodního tajemství

Impact factor

Impact factor: 3.609

RIV identification code

RIV/00216224:14310/15:00080636

Organization unit

Faculty of Science

UT WoS

000347462400001

Keywords in English

documentary evidence; instrumental data; precipitation; reconstruction; Czech Lands

Tags

Změněno: 8/4/2016 10:36, Ing. Andrea Mikešková

Abstract

V originále

This contribution employs documentary-based precipitation indices and long homogenised series of precipitation totals for quantitative reconstruction of seasonal and annual precipitation in the Czech Lands (now the Czech Republic) from AD 1501. Final calibration is based on linear regression using fully independent indices and data measured during the 1804–1854 overlap period, with subsequent variance scaling. Correlation analysis demonstrates that Czech documentary indices explain a significant amount of precipitation variability in all months and seasons of the entire overlapping period. Reconstruction results are best for annual values and for autumn (SON), for which proxy and target data share 36% of common variability. The coefficient of determination for summer (JJA) is 35%, for spring (MAM) 33%, but for winter (DJF) only 26%. Verification statistics (reduction of error, coefficient of efficiency) computed for early (1804–1829) and late (1830–1854) overlapping periods indicate acceptable reconstruction skill for precipitation indices in JJA and annual values. However, for the other seasons they failed in the early or in the late calibration period and this indicates possible chronological instability of reconstruction results in MAM, SON, and DJF seasons. The final reconstructions are complemented with uncertainty estimates. Reconstructed Czech precipitation series do not indicate long-term trends but reveal quite high inter-annual and inter-decadal variability. Smoothed reconstructed DJF and JJA precipitation totals show the highest values in the second part of the 16th century, while the driest 30-year period occurred during the 18th century in DJF, MAM, JJA, and in annual series. Direct comparisons with two other reconstructions (tree-ring-based for southern Moravia and gridded multiproxy for central Europe) show significant correlations for a substantial part of the common period, but also disclose several periods with loss of coherence.

Links

GAP209/11/0956, research and development project
Name: Globální a regionální modelové simulace klimatu ve střední Evropě v 18.-20. století v porovnání s pozorovaným a rekonstruovaným klimatem
Investor: Czech Science Foundation
GA13-04291S, research and development project
Name: Rekonstrukce hydro-klimatických podmínek jara a léta posledního milénia v České republice na základě dubové standardní chronologie
Investor: Czech Science Foundation
GA13-19831S, research and development project
Name: Hydrometeorologické extrémy na jižní Moravě odvozené z dokumentárních pramenů
Investor: Czech Science Foundation