European summer temperatures since Roman times

J 2016

European summer temperatures since Roman times

LUTERBACHER, Juerg, J.P. WERNER, J.E. SMERDON, L. FERNANDEZ-DONADO, F.J. GONZALEZ-ROUCO et. al.

Basic information

Original name

European summer temperatures since Roman times

Authors

LUTERBACHER, Juerg (756 Switzerland, guarantor), J.P. WERNER (276 Germany), J.E. SMERDON (840 United States of America), L. FERNANDEZ-DONADO (724 Spain), F.J. GONZALEZ-ROUCO (724 Spain), D. BARRIOPEDRO (724 Spain), F.C. LJUNGQVIST (752 Sweden), Ulf BÜNTGEN (756 Switzerland), E. ZORITA (724 Spain), S. WAGNER (276 Germany), J. ESPER (276 Germany), D. MCCARROLL (826 United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland), A. TORETI (380 Italy), D. FRANK (756 Switzerland), J.H. JUNGCLAUS (276 Germany), M. BARRIENDOS (724 Spain), C. BERTOLIN (380 Italy), O. BOTHE (276 Germany), Rudolf BRÁZDIL (203 Czech Republic, belonging to the institution), D. CAMUFFO (380 Italy), Petr DOBROVOLNÝ (203 Czech Republic, belonging to the institution), M. GAGEN (826 United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland), E. GARICA-BUSTAMANTE (724 Spain), Q. GE (156 China), J.J. GOMEZ-NAVARRO (724 Spain), J. GUIOT (250 France), Z. HAO (156 China), G.C. HEGERL (826 United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland), K. HOLMGREN (752 Sweden), V.V. KLIMENKO (643 Russian Federation), J. MARTIN-CHIVELET (724 Spain), Christian PFISTER (756 Switzerland), N. ROBERTS (826 United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland), A. SCHINDLER (756 Switzerland), A. SCHURER (826 United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland), O. SOLOMINA (643 Russian Federation), L. VON GUNTEN (756 Switzerland), E. WAHL (840 United States of America), H. WANNER (756 Switzerland), O. WETTER (756 Switzerland), E. XOPLAKI (300 Greece), N. YUAN (156 China), D. ZANCHETTIN (380 Italy), H. ZHANG (156 China) and C. ZEREFOS (300 Greece)

Edition

Environmental Research Letters, BRISTOL, IOP PUBLISHING LTD, 2016, 1748-9326

Other information

Language

English

Type of outcome

Článek v odborném periodiku

Field of Study

10500 1.5. Earth and related environmental sciences

Country of publisher

United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland

Confidentiality degree

není předmětem státního či obchodního tajemství

Impact factor

Impact factor: 4.404

RIV identification code

RIV/00216224:14310/16:00087868

Organization unit

Faculty of Science

DOI

http://dx.doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/11/2/024001

UT WoS

000371488300003

Keywords in English

Common Era; heat waves; paleoclimatology; Bayesian hierarchical modelling; European summer temperature reconstruction; ensemble of climate model simulations; Medieval Climate Anomaly

Abstract

V originále

The spatial context is criticalwhen assessing present-day climate anomalies, attributing them to potential forcings and making statements regarding their frequency and severity in a long-term perspective. Recent international initiatives have expanded the number of high-quality proxy-records and developed new statistical reconstruction methods. These advances allow more rigorous regional past temperature reconstructions and, in turn, the possibility of evaluating climate models on policy-relevant, spatiotemporal scales. Here we provide a new proxy-based, annually-resolved, spatial reconstruction of the European summer (June-August) temperature fields back to 755 CE based on Bayesian hierarchical modelling (BHM), together with estimates of the European mean temperature variation since 138 BCE based on BHM and composite-plus-scaling (CPS). Our reconstructions compare well with independent instrumental and proxy-based temperature estimates, but suggest a larger amplitude in summer temperature variability than previously reported. Both CPS and BHM reconstructions indicate that the mean 20th century European summer temperature was not significantly different from some earlier centuries, including the 1st, 2nd, 8th and 10th centuries CE. The 1st century (in BHM also the 10th century) may even have been slightly warmer than the 20th century, but the difference is not statistically significant. Comparing each 50 yr period with the 1951-2000 period reveals a similar pattern. Recent summers, however, have been unusually warm in the context of the last two millennia and there are no 30 yr periods in either reconstruction that exceed the mean average European summer temperature of the last 3 decades (1986-2015 CE). A comparison with an ensemble of climate model simulations suggests that the reconstructed European summer temperature variability over the period 850-2000 CE reflects changes in both internal variability and external forcing on multi-decadal time-scales. For pan-European temperatures we find slightly better agreement between the reconstruction and the model simulations with high-end estimates for total solar irradiance. Temperature differences between the medieval period, the recent period and the Little Ice Age are larger in the reconstructions than the simulations. This may indicate inflated variability of the reconstructions, a lack of sensitivity and processes to changes in external forcing on the simulated European climate and/or an underestimation of internal variability on centennial and longer time scales.

Links

GA13-04291S, research and development project

Name: Rekonstrukce hydro-klimatických podmínek jara a léta posledního milénia v České republice na základě dubové standardní chronologie

Investor: Czech Science Foundation

Citovat

LUTERBACHER, Juerg, J.P. WERNER, J.E. SMERDON, L. FERNANDEZ-DONADO, F.J. GONZALEZ-ROUCO, D. BARRIOPEDRO, F.C. LJUNGQVIST, Ulf BÜNTGEN, E. ZORITA, S. WAGNER, J. ESPER, D. MCCARROLL, A. TORETI, D. FRANK, J.H. JUNGCLAUS, M. BARRIENDOS, C. BERTOLIN, O. BOTHE, Rudolf BRÁZDIL, D. CAMUFFO, Petr DOBROVOLNÝ, M. GAGEN, E. GARICA-BUSTAMANTE, Q. GE, J.J. GOMEZ-NAVARRO, J. GUIOT, Z. HAO, G.C. HEGERL, K. HOLMGREN, V.V. KLIMENKO, J. MARTIN-CHIVELET, Christian PFISTER, N. ROBERTS, A. SCHINDLER, A. SCHURER, O. SOLOMINA, L. VON GUNTEN, E. WAHL, H. WANNER, O. WETTER, E. XOPLAKI, N. YUAN, D. ZANCHETTIN, H. ZHANG and C. ZEREFOS. European summer temperatures since Roman times. Environmental Research Letters. BRISTOL: IOP PUBLISHING LTD, 2016, vol. 11, No 2, p. "nestrankovano", 12 pp. ISSN 1748-9326. Available from: https://dx.doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/11/2/024001.

@article{1341254,
   author = {Luterbacher, Juerg and Werner, J.P. and Smerdon, J.E. and FernandezandDonado, L. and GonzalezandRouco, F.J. and Barriopedro, D. and Ljungqvist, F.C. and Büntgen, Ulf and Zorita, E. and Wagner, S. and Esper, J. and McCarroll, D. and Toreti, A. and Frank, D. and Jungclaus, J.H. and Barriendos, M. and Bertolin, C. and Bothe, O. and Brázdil, Rudolf and Camuffo, D. and Dobrovolný, Petr and Gagen, M. and GaricaandBustamante, E. and Ge, Q. and GomezandNavarro, J.J. and Guiot, J. and Hao, Z. and Hegerl, G.C. and Holmgren, K. and Klimenko, V.V. and MartinandChivelet, J. and Pfister, Christian and Roberts, N. and Schindler, A. and Schurer, A. and Solomina, O. and von Gunten, L. and Wahl, E. and Wanner, H. and Wetter, O. and Xoplaki, E. and Yuan, N. and Zanchettin, D. and Zhang, H. and Zerefos, C.},
   article_location = {BRISTOL},
   article_number = {2},
   doi = {http://dx.doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/11/2/024001},
   keywords = {Common Era; heat waves; paleoclimatology; Bayesian hierarchical modelling; European summer temperature reconstruction; ensemble of climate model simulations; Medieval Climate Anomaly},
   language = {eng},
   issn = {1748-9326},
   journal = {Environmental Research Letters},
   title = {European summer temperatures since Roman times},
   volume = {11},
   year = {2016}
}

TY  - JOUR
ID  - 1341254
AU  - Luterbacher, Juerg - Werner, J.P. - Smerdon, J.E. - Fernandez-Donado, L. - Gonzalez-Rouco, F.J. - Barriopedro, D. - Ljungqvist, F.C. - Büntgen, Ulf - Zorita, E. - Wagner, S. - Esper, J. - McCarroll, D. - Toreti, A. - Frank, D. - Jungclaus, J.H. - Barriendos, M. - Bertolin, C. - Bothe, O. - Brázdil, Rudolf - Camuffo, D. - Dobrovolný, Petr - Gagen, M. - Garica-Bustamante, E. - Ge, Q. - Gomez-Navarro, J.J. - Guiot, J. - Hao, Z. - Hegerl, G.C. - Holmgren, K. - Klimenko, V.V. - Martin-Chivelet, J. - Pfister, Christian - Roberts, N. - Schindler, A. - Schurer, A. - Solomina, O. - von Gunten, L. - Wahl, E. - Wanner, H. - Wetter, O. - Xoplaki, E. - Yuan, N. - Zanchettin, D. - Zhang, H. - Zerefos, C.
PY  - 2016
TI  - European summer temperatures since Roman times
JF  - Environmental Research Letters
VL  - 11
IS  - 2
SP  - "nestrankovano"
EP  - "nestrankovano"
PB  - IOP PUBLISHING LTD
SN  - 17489326
KW  - Common Era
KW  - heat waves
KW  - paleoclimatology
KW  - Bayesian hierarchical modelling
KW  - European summer temperature reconstruction
KW  - ensemble of climate model simulations
KW  - Medieval Climate Anomaly
N2  - The spatial context is criticalwhen assessing present-day climate anomalies, attributing them to potential forcings and making statements regarding their frequency and severity in a long-term perspective. Recent international initiatives have expanded the number of high-quality proxy-records and developed new statistical reconstruction methods. These advances allow more rigorous regional past temperature reconstructions and, in turn, the possibility of evaluating climate models on policy-relevant, spatiotemporal scales. Here we provide a new proxy-based, annually-resolved, spatial reconstruction of the European summer (June-August) temperature fields back to 755 CE based on Bayesian hierarchical modelling (BHM), together with estimates of the European mean temperature variation since 138 BCE based on BHM and composite-plus-scaling (CPS). Our reconstructions compare well with independent instrumental and proxy-based temperature estimates, but suggest a larger amplitude in summer temperature variability than previously reported. Both CPS and BHM reconstructions indicate that the mean 20th century European summer temperature was not significantly different from some earlier centuries, including the 1st, 2nd, 8th and 10th centuries CE. The 1st century (in BHM also the 10th century) may even have been slightly warmer than the 20th century, but the difference is not statistically significant. Comparing each 50 yr period with the 1951-2000 period reveals a similar pattern. Recent summers, however, have been unusually warm in the context of the last two millennia and there are no 30 yr periods in either reconstruction that exceed the mean average European summer temperature of the last 3 decades (1986-2015 CE). A comparison with an ensemble of climate model simulations suggests that the reconstructed European summer temperature variability over the period 850-2000 CE reflects changes in both internal variability and external forcing on multi-decadal time-scales. For pan-European temperatures we find slightly better agreement between the reconstruction and the model simulations with high-end estimates for total solar irradiance. Temperature differences between the medieval period, the recent period and the Little Ice Age are larger in the reconstructions than the simulations. This may indicate inflated variability of the reconstructions, a lack of sensitivity and processes to changes in external forcing on the simulated European climate and/or an underestimation of internal variability on centennial and longer time scales.
ER  -

LUTERBACHER, Juerg, J.P. WERNER, J.E. SMERDON, L. FERNANDEZ-DONADO, F.J. GONZALEZ-ROUCO, D. BARRIOPEDRO, F.C. LJUNGQVIST, Ulf BÜNTGEN, E. ZORITA, S. WAGNER, J. ESPER, D. MCCARROLL, A. TORETI, D. FRANK, J.H. JUNGCLAUS, M. BARRIENDOS, C. BERTOLIN, O. BOTHE, Rudolf BRÁZDIL, D. CAMUFFO, Petr DOBROVOLNÝ, M. GAGEN, E. GARICA-BUSTAMANTE, Q. GE, J.J. GOMEZ-NAVARRO, J. GUIOT, Z. HAO, G.C. HEGERL, K. HOLMGREN, V.V. KLIMENKO, J. MARTIN-CHIVELET, Christian PFISTER, N. ROBERTS, A. SCHINDLER, A. SCHURER, O. SOLOMINA, L. VON GUNTEN, E. WAHL, H. WANNER, O. WETTER, E. XOPLAKI, N. YUAN, D. ZANCHETTIN, H. ZHANG and C. ZEREFOS. European summer temperatures since Roman times. \textit{Environmental Research Letters}. BRISTOL: IOP PUBLISHING LTD, 2016, vol.~11, No~2, p.~''nestrankovano'', 12 pp. ISSN~1748-9326. Available from: https://dx.doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/11/2/024001.

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