J 2016

The impact of Polish unconventional production on the regional distribution of natural gas supply and transit: A scenario analysis

OSIČKA, Jan, Petr OCELÍK and Břetislav DANČÁK

Basic information

Original name

The impact of Polish unconventional production on the regional distribution of natural gas supply and transit: A scenario analysis

Authors

OSIČKA, Jan (203 Czech Republic, guarantor, belonging to the institution), Petr OCELÍK (203 Czech Republic, belonging to the institution) and Břetislav DANČÁK (203 Czech Republic, belonging to the institution)

Edition

Energy Strategy Reviews, 2016, 2211-467X

Other information

Language

English

Type of outcome

Článek v odborném periodiku

Field of Study

50601 Political science

Country of publisher

Netherlands

Confidentiality degree

není předmětem státního či obchodního tajemství

References:

URL

Impact factor

Impact factor: 1.891

RIV identification code

RIV/00216224:14230/16:00089911

Organization unit

Faculty of Social Studies

DOI

http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.esr.2016.02.001

UT WoS

000378853000001

Keywords in English

Natural gas; Network flow model; Unconventional gas; Central and Eastern Europe; Scenario analysis
Změněno: 26/4/2017 13:57, Ing. Alena Raisová

Abstract

V originále

We use the MEOS model to assess the possible impact of Polish unconventional gas (UNG) production on natural gas flows through the Czech Republic, Hungary, Poland and Slovakia. MEOS is a network flow optimization model designed to solve the minimum-cost flow problem in a network that consists of nodes (production areas, consumption areas, transshipment junctions) and arcs (pipelines). The article postulates and analyzes five distinct scenarios combining various levels of UNG production with different settings of regional infrastructure. The MEOS simulations reveal the critical importance of currently missing cross-border links between the countries. Polish UNG production is therefore likely to trigger new infrastructure projects and foster the ones that are currently under consideration. The biggest changes in natural gas supply can be expected in Slovakia and Hungary, as these markets do not have direct access to German hubs. Similarly, it is reasonable to expect Polish UNG to be traded at the Austrian CEGH hub, which will further catalyze the transformation of the regional market. It is further argued that in addition to sufficient infrastructure, UNG production will require liberalization of the Polish domestic market and a certain degree of integration of regional markets, effectively changing the nature of natural gas trading in the region, which is still dominated by Russian long-term, take-or-pay contracts.

Links

MUNI/A/1113/2015, interní kód MU
Name: Evropa v měnícím se mezinárodním prostředí II
Investor: Masaryk University, Category A
MUNI/M/0081/2013, interní kód MU
Name: Energetická infrastruktura a její vliv na energetickou bezpečnost
Investor: Masaryk University, INTERDISCIPLINARY - Interdisciplinary research projects
Displayed: 9/11/2024 08:34