J 2016

Drought trends over part of Central Europe between 1961 and 2014

TRNKA, Miroslav, Jan BALEK, Petr ŠTĚPÁNEK, Pavel ZAHRADNÍČEK, Martin MOŽNÝ et. al.

Basic information

Original name

Drought trends over part of Central Europe between 1961 and 2014

Authors

TRNKA, Miroslav (203 Czech Republic), Jan BALEK (203 Czech Republic), Petr ŠTĚPÁNEK (203 Czech Republic), Pavel ZAHRADNÍČEK (203 Czech Republic), Martin MOŽNÝ (203 Czech Republic), Josef EITZINGER (40 Austria), Zdeněk ŽALUD (203 Czech Republic), Herbert FORMAYER (40 Austria), Maroš TURŇA (703 Slovakia), Pavol NEJEDLÍK (703 Slovakia), Daniela SEMERÁDOVÁ (203 Czech Republic), Petr HLAVINKA (203 Czech Republic) and Rudolf BRÁZDIL (203 Czech Republic, guarantor, belonging to the institution)

Edition

Climate Research, 2016, 0936-577X

Other information

Language

English

Type of outcome

Článek v odborném periodiku

Field of Study

10500 1.5. Earth and related environmental sciences

Country of publisher

Germany

Confidentiality degree

není předmětem státního či obchodního tajemství

Impact factor

Impact factor: 1.578

RIV identification code

RIV/00216224:14310/16:00088628

Organization unit

Faculty of Science

DOI

http://dx.doi.org/10.3354/cr01420

UT WoS

000388194400005

Keywords in English

SPI; PDSI; SPEI; Z-index; ICDI; drought climatology; climate trends

Tags

AKR, rivok
Změněno: 5/4/2017 10:00, Ing. Andrea Mikešková

Abstract

V originále

An increase in drought frequency, duration and severity is expected for the Central European region as a direct consequence of climate change. This will have profound effects on a number of key sectors (e.g. agriculture, forestry, energy production and tourism) and also affect water resources, biodiversity and the landscape as a whole. However, global circulation models significantly differ in their projections for Central Europe with respect to the magnitude and timing of these changes. Therefore, analysis of changes in drought characteristics during the last 54 yr in relation to prevailing climate trends might significantly enhance our understanding of present and future drought risks. This study is based on a set of drought indices, including the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI), the Palmer Drought Severity Index (PDSI), the Palmer Zindex (Z-index) and the Standardized Precipitation-Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI), in their most advanced formulations. The time series of the drought indices were calculated for 411 climatological stations across Austria (excluding the Alps), the Czech Republic and Slovakia. Up to 45% of the evaluated stations (depending on the index) became significantly drier during the 1961-2014 period except for areas in the west and north of the studied region. In addition to identifying the regions with the most pronounced drying trends, a drying trend consistency across the station network of 3 independent national weather services was shown. The main driver behind this development was an increase in the evaporative demand of the atmosphere, driven by higher temperatures and global radiation with limited changes in precipitation totals. The observed drying trends were most pronounced during the April-September period and in lower elevations. Conversely, the majority of stations above 1000 m exhibited a significant wetting trend for both the summer and winter (October-March) half-years.

Links

GA13-19831S, research and development project
Name: Hydrometeorologické extrémy na jižní Moravě odvozené z dokumentárních pramenů
Investor: Czech Science Foundation
Displayed: 10/11/2024 09:14