Changing regional weather-crop yield relationships across
Europe between 1901 and 2012

J 2016

Changing regional weather-crop yield relationships across Europe between 1901 and 2012

TRNKA, Miroslav, Jørgen Eivind OLESEN, Kurt Christian KERSEBAUM, Reimund Paul RÖTTER, Rudolf BRÁZDIL et. al.

Basic information

Original name

Changing regional weather-crop yield relationships across Europe between 1901 and 2012

Authors

TRNKA, Miroslav (203 Czech Republic), Jørgen Eivind OLESEN (208 Denmark), Kurt Christian KERSEBAUM (276 Germany), Reimund Paul RÖTTER (246 Finland), Rudolf BRÁZDIL (203 Czech Republic, guarantor, belonging to the institution), Josef EITZINGER (40 Austria), Sander JANSSEN (528 Netherlands), Arne Oddvar SKJELVÅG (578 Norway), Pirjo PELTONEN-SAINIO (246 Finland), Petr HLAVINKA (203 Czech Republic), Jan BALEK (203 Czech Republic), H. ECKERSTEN (752 Sweden), A. GOBIN (56 Belgium), V. VUCETI (191 Croatia), A. DALLA MARTA (380 Italy), S. ORLANDINI (380 Italy), V. ALEXANDROV (100 Bulgaria), D. SEMERADOVA (203 Czech Republic), P. STEPANEK (203 Czech Republic), E. SVOBODOVA (203 Czech Republic) and K. RAJDL (203 Czech Republic)

Edition

Climate Research, 2016, 0936-577X

Other information

Language

English

Type of outcome

Článek v odborném periodiku

Field of Study

10500 1.5. Earth and related environmental sciences

Country of publisher

Germany

Confidentiality degree

není předmětem státního či obchodního tajemství

Impact factor

Impact factor: 1.578

RIV identification code

RIV/00216224:14310/16:00088631

Organization unit

Faculty of Science

DOI

http://dx.doi.org/10.3354/cr01426

UT WoS

000388194400008

Keywords in English

climatic trend; weather-crop yield relationship; wheat; barley; yield trend; drought; Europe

Abstract

V originále

Europe is, after Asia, the second largest producer of wheat in the world, and provides the largest share of barley. Wheat (and to a similar extent, barley) production in Europe increased by more than 6-fold during the 20th century. During the first half of the 20th century, this was driven by expanding the harvested area. This was followed, from the mid-20th century, by a massive increase in productivity that in many regions has stalled since 2000. However, it remains unclear what role climatic factors have played in these changes. Understanding the net impact of climatic trends over the past century would also aid in our understanding of the potential impact of future climate changes and in assessments of the potential for adaptation across Europe. In this study, we compiled information from several sources on winter wheat and spring barley yields and climatological data from 12 countries/regions covering the period from 1901-2012. The studied area includes the majority of climatic regions in which wheat and barley are grown (from central Italy to Finland). We hypothesized that changes in climatic conditions have led to measurable shifts in climate-yield relationships over the past 112 yr, and that presently grown wheat and barely show a more pronounced response to adverse weather conditions compared to crops from the early 20th century. The results confirm that climate-yield relationships have changed significantly over the period studied, and that in some regions, different predictors have had a greater effect on yields in recent times (between 1991 and 2012) than in previous decades. It is likely that changes in the climate-yield relationship at the local level might be more pronounced than those across the relatively large regions used in this study, as the latter represents aggregations of yields from various agroclimatic and pedoclimatic conditions that may show opposing trends.

Links

GA13-19831S, research and development project

Name: Hydrometeorologické extrémy na jižní Moravě odvozené z dokumentárních pramenů

Investor: Czech Science Foundation

Citovat

TRNKA, Miroslav, Jørgen Eivind OLESEN, Kurt Christian KERSEBAUM, Reimund Paul RÖTTER, Rudolf BRÁZDIL, Josef EITZINGER, Sander JANSSEN, Arne Oddvar SKJELVÅG, Pirjo PELTONEN-SAINIO, Petr HLAVINKA, Jan BALEK, H. ECKERSTEN, A. GOBIN, V. VUCETI, A. DALLA MARTA, S. ORLANDINI, V. ALEXANDROV, D. SEMERADOVA, P. STEPANEK, E. SVOBODOVA and K. RAJDL. Changing regional weather-crop yield relationships across Europe between 1901 and 2012. Climate Research. 2016, vol. 70, 2-3, p. 195-214. ISSN 0936-577X. Available from: https://dx.doi.org/10.3354/cr01426.

@article{1371183,
   author = {Trnka, Miroslav and Olesen, Jørgen Eivind and Kersebaum, Kurt Christian and Rötter, Reimund Paul and Brázdil, Rudolf and Eitzinger, Josef and Janssen, Sander and Skjelvåg, Arne Oddvar and PeltonenandSainio, Pirjo and Hlavinka, Petr and Balek, Jan and Eckersten, H. and Gobin, A. and Vuceti, V. and Dalla Marta, A. and Orlandini, S. and Alexandrov, V. and Semeradova, D. and Stepanek, P. and Svobodova, E. and Rajdl, K.},
   article_number = {2-3},
   doi = {http://dx.doi.org/10.3354/cr01426},
   keywords = {climatic trend; weather-crop yield relationship; wheat; barley; yield trend; drought; Europe},
   language = {eng},
   issn = {0936-577X},
   journal = {Climate Research},
   title = {Changing regional weather-crop yield relationships across Europe between 1901 and 2012},
   volume = {70},
   year = {2016}
}

TY  - JOUR
ID  - 1371183
AU  - Trnka, Miroslav - Olesen, Jørgen Eivind - Kersebaum, Kurt Christian - Rötter, Reimund Paul - Brázdil, Rudolf - Eitzinger, Josef - Janssen, Sander - Skjelvåg, Arne Oddvar - Peltonen-Sainio, Pirjo - Hlavinka, Petr - Balek, Jan - Eckersten, H. - Gobin, A. - Vuceti, V. - Dalla Marta, A. - Orlandini, S. - Alexandrov, V. - Semeradova, D. - Stepanek, P. - Svobodova, E. - Rajdl, K.
PY  - 2016
TI  - Changing regional weather-crop yield relationships across Europe between 1901 and 2012
JF  - Climate Research
VL  - 70
IS  - 2-3
SP  - 195-214
EP  - 195-214
SN  - 0936577X
KW  - climatic trend
KW  - weather-crop yield relationship
KW  - wheat
KW  - barley
KW  - yield trend
KW  - drought
KW  - Europe
N2  - Europe is, after Asia, the second largest producer of wheat in the world, and provides the largest share of barley. Wheat (and to a similar extent, barley) production in Europe increased by more than 6-fold during the 20th century. During the first half of the 20th century, this was driven by expanding the harvested area. This was followed, from the mid-20th century, by a massive increase in productivity that in many regions has stalled since 2000. However, it remains unclear what role climatic factors have played in these changes. Understanding the net impact of climatic trends over the past century would also aid in our understanding of the potential impact of future climate changes and in assessments of the potential for adaptation across Europe. In this study, we compiled information from several sources on winter wheat and spring barley yields and climatological data from 12 countries/regions covering the period from 1901-2012. The studied area includes the majority of climatic regions in which wheat and barley are grown (from central Italy to Finland). We hypothesized that changes in climatic conditions have led to measurable shifts in climate-yield relationships over the past 112 yr, and that presently grown wheat and barely show a more pronounced response to adverse weather conditions compared to crops from the early 20th century. The results confirm that climate-yield relationships have changed significantly over the period studied, and that in some regions, different predictors have had a greater effect on yields in recent times (between 1991 and 2012) than in previous decades. It is likely that changes in the climate-yield relationship at the local level might be more pronounced than those across the relatively large regions used in this study, as the latter represents aggregations of yields from various agroclimatic and pedoclimatic conditions that may show opposing trends.
ER  -

TRNKA, Miroslav, Jørgen Eivind OLESEN, Kurt Christian KERSEBAUM, Reimund Paul RÖTTER, Rudolf BRÁZDIL, Josef EITZINGER, Sander JANSSEN, Arne Oddvar SKJELVÅG, Pirjo PELTONEN-SAINIO, Petr HLAVINKA, Jan BALEK, H. ECKERSTEN, A. GOBIN, V. VUCETI, A. DALLA MARTA, S. ORLANDINI, V. ALEXANDROV, D. SEMERADOVA, P. STEPANEK, E. SVOBODOVA and K. RAJDL. Changing regional weather-crop yield relationships across Europe between 1901 and 2012. \textit{Climate Research}. 2016, vol.~70, 2-3, p.~195-214. ISSN~0936-577X. Available from: https://dx.doi.org/10.3354/cr01426.

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