Palaeodistribution modelling of European vegetation types at
the Last Glacial Maximum using modern analogues from Siberia:
Prospects and limitations

J 2017

Palaeodistribution modelling of European vegetation types at the Last Glacial Maximum using modern analogues from Siberia: Prospects and limitations

JANSKÁ, Veronika, Francisco De Borja JIMÉNEZ ALFARO GONZÁLEZ, Milan CHYTRÝ, Jan DIVÍŠEK, Oleg ANENKHONOV et. al.

Basic information

Original name

Palaeodistribution modelling of European vegetation types at the Last Glacial Maximum using modern analogues from Siberia: Prospects and limitations

Authors

JANSKÁ, Veronika (203 Czech Republic, belonging to the institution), Francisco De Borja JIMÉNEZ ALFARO GONZÁLEZ (724 Spain, guarantor, belonging to the institution), Milan CHYTRÝ (203 Czech Republic, belonging to the institution), Jan DIVÍŠEK (203 Czech Republic, belonging to the institution), Oleg ANENKHONOV (643 Russian Federation), Andrey KOROLYUK (643 Russian Federation), Nikolai LASHCHINSKYI (643 Russian Federation) and Martin CULEK (203 Czech Republic, belonging to the institution)

Edition

Quaternary Science Reviews, Oxford, PERGAMON-ELSEVIER SCIENCE LTD, 2017, 0277-3791

Other information

Language

English

Type of outcome

Článek v odborném periodiku

Field of Study

10611 Plant sciences, botany

Country of publisher

United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland

Confidentiality degree

není předmětem státního či obchodního tajemství

References:

URL

Impact factor

Impact factor: 4.334

RIV identification code

RIV/00216224:14310/17:00094647

Organization unit

Faculty of Science

DOI

http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.quascirev.2017.01.011

UT WoS

000395609300008

Keywords in English

Europe; Last Glacial Maximum; Modern analogues; Palaeoecological reconstructions; Siberia; Species distribution modelling

Abstract

V originále

We modelled the European distribution of vegetation types at the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) using present-day data from Siberia, a region hypothesized to be a modern analogue of European glacial climate. Distribution models were calibrated with current climate using 6274 vegetation-plot records surveyed in Siberia. Out of 22 initially used vegetation types, good or moderately good models in terms of statistical validation and expert-based evaluation were computed for 18 types, which were then projected to European climate at the LGM. The resulting distributions were generally consistent with reconstructions based on pollen records and dynamic vegetation models. Spatial predictions were most reliable for steppe, forest-steppe, taiga, tundra, fens and bogs in eastern and central Europe, which had LGM climate more similar to present-day Siberia. The models for western and southern Europe, regions with a lower degree of climatic analogy, were only reliable for mires and steppe vegetation, respectively. Modelling LGM vegetation types for the wetter and warmer regions of Europe would therefore require gathering calibration data from outside Siberia. Our approach adds value to the reconstruction of vegetation at the LGM, which is limited by scarcity of pollen and macrofossil data, suggesting where specific habitats could have occurred. Despite the uncertainties of climatic extrapolations and the difficulty of validating the projections for vegetation types, the integration of palaeodistribution modelling with other approaches has a great potential for improving our understanding of biodiversity patterns during the LGM.

Links

CZ.1.07/2.3.00/30.0037, interní kód MU
(CEP code: EE2.3.30.0037)

Name: Zaměstnáním nejlepších mladých vědců k rozvoji mezinárodní spolupráce (Acronym: Postdoc II.)

Investor: Ministry of Education, Youth and Sports of the CR, 2.3 Human resources in research and development

GAP504/11/0454, research and development project

Name: Změny biodiverzity na přechodu pleistocénu a holocénu: současné analogie v reliktních ekosystémech Sibiře

Investor: Czech Science Foundation

Citovat

JANSKÁ, Veronika, Francisco De Borja JIMÉNEZ ALFARO GONZÁLEZ, Milan CHYTRÝ, Jan DIVÍŠEK, Oleg ANENKHONOV, Andrey KOROLYUK, Nikolai LASHCHINSKYI and Martin CULEK. Palaeodistribution modelling of European vegetation types at the Last Glacial Maximum using modern analogues from Siberia: Prospects and limitations. Quaternary Science Reviews. Oxford: PERGAMON-ELSEVIER SCIENCE LTD, 2017, vol. 159, March, p. 103-115. ISSN 0277-3791. Available from: https://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.quascirev.2017.01.011.

@article{1373393,
   author = {Janská, Veronika and Jiménez Alfaro González, Francisco De Borja and Chytrý, Milan and Divíšek, Jan and Anenkhonov, Oleg and Korolyuk, Andrey and Lashchinskyi, Nikolai and Culek, Martin},
   article_location = {Oxford},
   article_number = {March},
   doi = {http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.quascirev.2017.01.011},
   keywords = {Europe; Last Glacial Maximum; Modern analogues; Palaeoecological reconstructions; Siberia; Species distribution modelling},
   language = {eng},
   issn = {0277-3791},
   journal = {Quaternary Science Reviews},
   title = {Palaeodistribution modelling of European vegetation types at the Last Glacial Maximum using modern analogues from Siberia: Prospects and limitations},
   url = {http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0277379117300598},
   volume = {159},
   year = {2017}
}

TY  - JOUR
ID  - 1373393
AU  - Janská, Veronika - Jiménez Alfaro González, Francisco De Borja - Chytrý, Milan - Divíšek, Jan - Anenkhonov, Oleg - Korolyuk, Andrey - Lashchinskyi, Nikolai - Culek, Martin
PY  - 2017
TI  - Palaeodistribution modelling of European vegetation types at the Last Glacial Maximum using modern analogues from Siberia: Prospects and limitations
JF  - Quaternary Science Reviews
VL  - 159
IS  - March
SP  - 103-115
EP  - 103-115
PB  - PERGAMON-ELSEVIER SCIENCE LTD
SN  - 02773791
KW  - Europe
KW  - Last Glacial Maximum
KW  - Modern analogues
KW  - Palaeoecological reconstructions
KW  - Siberia
KW  - Species distribution modelling
UR  - http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0277379117300598
N2  - We modelled the European distribution of vegetation types at the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) using present-day data from Siberia, a region hypothesized to be a modern analogue of European glacial climate. Distribution models were calibrated with current climate using 6274 vegetation-plot records surveyed in Siberia. Out of 22 initially used vegetation types, good or moderately good models in terms of statistical validation and expert-based evaluation were computed for 18 types, which were then projected to European climate at the LGM. The resulting distributions were generally consistent with reconstructions based on pollen records and dynamic vegetation models. Spatial predictions were most reliable for steppe, forest-steppe, taiga, tundra, fens and bogs in eastern and central Europe, which had LGM climate more similar to present-day Siberia. The models for western and southern Europe, regions with a lower degree of climatic analogy, were only reliable for mires and steppe vegetation, respectively. Modelling LGM vegetation types for the wetter and warmer regions of Europe would therefore require gathering calibration data from outside Siberia. Our approach adds value to the reconstruction of vegetation at the LGM, which is limited by scarcity of pollen and macrofossil data, suggesting where specific habitats could have occurred. Despite the uncertainties of climatic extrapolations and the difficulty of validating the projections for vegetation types, the integration of palaeodistribution modelling with other approaches has a great potential for improving our understanding of biodiversity patterns during the LGM.
ER  -

JANSKÁ, Veronika, Francisco De Borja JIMÉNEZ ALFARO GONZÁLEZ, Milan CHYTRÝ, Jan DIVÍŠEK, Oleg ANENKHONOV, Andrey KOROLYUK, Nikolai LASHCHINSKYI and Martin CULEK. Palaeodistribution modelling of European vegetation types at the Last Glacial Maximum using modern analogues from Siberia: Prospects and limitations. \textit{Quaternary Science Reviews}. Oxford: PERGAMON-ELSEVIER SCIENCE LTD, 2017, vol.~159, March, p.~103-115. ISSN~0277-3791. Available from: https://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.quascirev.2017.01.011.

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