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@article{1423261,
author = {Lososová, Zdeňka and Tichý, Lubomír and Divíšek, Jan and Čeplová, Natálie and Danihelka, Jiří and Dřevojan, Pavel and Fajmon, Karel and Kalníková, Veronika and Kalusová, Veronika and Novák, Pavel and Řehořek, Vladimír and Wirth, Tamás and Chytrý, Milan},
article_number = {6},
doi = {http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/ddi.12725},
keywords = {CCSM4; climate chang; plant functional types; plant invasion; urban ecology; vegetation modelling},
language = {eng},
issn = {1366-9516},
journal = {Diversity and Distributions},
title = {Projecting potential future shifts in species composition of European urban plant communities},
url = {https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/ddi.12725},
volume = {24},
year = {2018}
}
TY - JOUR
ID - 1423261
AU - Lososová, Zdeňka - Tichý, Lubomír - Divíšek, Jan - Čeplová, Natálie - Danihelka, Jiří - Dřevojan, Pavel - Fajmon, Karel - Kalníková, Veronika - Kalusová, Veronika - Novák, Pavel - Řehořek, Vladimír - Wirth, Tamás - Chytrý, Milan
PY - 2018
TI - Projecting potential future shifts in species composition of European urban plant communities
JF - Diversity and Distributions
VL - 24
IS - 6
SP - 765-775
EP - 765-775
PB - Wiley
SN - 13669516
KW - CCSM4
KW - climate chang
KW - plant functional types
KW - plant invasion
KW - urban ecology
KW - vegetation modelling
UR - https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/ddi.12725
N2 - Aim: Urban floras are composed of species of different origin, both native and alien, and with various traits and niches. It is likely that these species will respond to the ongoing climate change in different ways, resulting in future species compositions with no analogues in current European cities. Our goal was to estimate potential shifts in plant species composition in European cities under different scenarios of climate change for the 21st century. - Location: Europe. - Methods: Potential changes in the distribution of 375 species currently growing in 60 large cities in Southern, Central and Western Europe were modelled using generalized linear models and four climate change projections for two future periods (2041-2060 and 2061-2080). These projections were based on two global climate models (CCSM4 and MIROC-ESM) and two Representative Concentration Pathways (2.6 and 8.5). - Results: Results were similar across all climate projections, suggesting that the composition of urban plant communities will change considerably due to future climate change. However, even under the most severe climate change scenario, native and alien species will respond to climate change similarly. Many currently established species will decline and others, especially annuals currently restricted to Southern Europe, will spread to northern cities. In contrast, perennial herbs, woody plants and most species with temperate continental and oceanic distribution ranges will make up a smaller proportion of future European urban plant communities in comparison with the present communities. - Main conclusions: The projected 21st century climate change will lead to considerable changes in the species composition of urban floras. These changes will affect the structure and functioning of urban plant communities.
ER -
LOSOSOVÁ, Zdeňka, Lubomír TICHÝ, Jan DIVÍŠEK, Natálie ČEPLOVÁ, Jiří DANIHELKA, Pavel DŘEVOJAN, Karel FAJMON, Veronika KALNÍKOVÁ, Veronika KALUSOVÁ, Pavel NOVÁK, Vladimír ŘEHOŘEK, Tamás WIRTH and Milan CHYTRÝ. Projecting potential future shifts in species composition of European urban plant communities. \textit{Diversity and Distributions}. Wiley, 2018, vol.~24, No~6, p.~765-775. ISSN~1366-9516. Available from: https://dx.doi.org/10.1111/ddi.12725.
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