LOSOSOVÁ, Zdeňka, Lubomír TICHÝ, Jan DIVÍŠEK, Natálie ČEPLOVÁ, Jiří DANIHELKA, Pavel DŘEVOJAN, Karel FAJMON, Veronika KALNÍKOVÁ, Veronika KALUSOVÁ, Pavel NOVÁK, Vladimír ŘEHOŘEK, Tamás WIRTH and Milan CHYTRÝ. Projecting potential future shifts in species composition of European urban plant communities. Diversity and Distributions. Wiley, 2018, vol. 24, No 6, p. 765-775. ISSN 1366-9516. doi:10.1111/ddi.12725.
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Basic information
Original name Projecting potential future shifts in species composition of European urban plant communities
Authors LOSOSOVÁ, Zdeňka (203 Czech Republic, guarantor, belonging to the institution), Lubomír TICHÝ (203 Czech Republic, belonging to the institution), Jan DIVÍŠEK (203 Czech Republic, belonging to the institution), Natálie ČEPLOVÁ (203 Czech Republic, belonging to the institution), Jiří DANIHELKA (203 Czech Republic, belonging to the institution), Pavel DŘEVOJAN (203 Czech Republic, belonging to the institution), Karel FAJMON (203 Czech Republic, belonging to the institution), Veronika KALNÍKOVÁ (203 Czech Republic, belonging to the institution), Veronika KALUSOVÁ (203 Czech Republic, belonging to the institution), Pavel NOVÁK (203 Czech Republic, belonging to the institution), Vladimír ŘEHOŘEK (203 Czech Republic, belonging to the institution), Tamás WIRTH (348 Hungary) and Milan CHYTRÝ (203 Czech Republic, belonging to the institution).
Edition Diversity and Distributions, Wiley, 2018, 1366-9516.
Other information
Original language English
Type of outcome Article in a journal
Field of Study 10600 1.6 Biological sciences
Country of publisher United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland
Confidentiality degree is not subject to a state or trade secret
WWW URL
Impact factor Impact factor: 4.092
RIV identification code RIV/00216224:14310/18:00101053
Organization unit Faculty of Science
Doi http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/ddi.12725
UT WoS 000433571100005
Keywords in English CCSM4; climate chang; plant functional types; plant invasion; urban ecology; vegetation modelling
Tags International impact, Reviewed
Changed by Changed by: Mgr. Pavel Dřevojan, učo 269768. Changed: 9/1/2019 09:24.
Abstract
Aim: Urban floras are composed of species of different origin, both native and alien, and with various traits and niches. It is likely that these species will respond to the ongoing climate change in different ways, resulting in future species compositions with no analogues in current European cities. Our goal was to estimate potential shifts in plant species composition in European cities under different scenarios of climate change for the 21st century. - Location: Europe. - Methods: Potential changes in the distribution of 375 species currently growing in 60 large cities in Southern, Central and Western Europe were modelled using generalized linear models and four climate change projections for two future periods (2041-2060 and 2061-2080). These projections were based on two global climate models (CCSM4 and MIROC-ESM) and two Representative Concentration Pathways (2.6 and 8.5). - Results: Results were similar across all climate projections, suggesting that the composition of urban plant communities will change considerably due to future climate change. However, even under the most severe climate change scenario, native and alien species will respond to climate change similarly. Many currently established species will decline and others, especially annuals currently restricted to Southern Europe, will spread to northern cities. In contrast, perennial herbs, woody plants and most species with temperate continental and oceanic distribution ranges will make up a smaller proportion of future European urban plant communities in comparison with the present communities. - Main conclusions: The projected 21st century climate change will lead to considerable changes in the species composition of urban floras. These changes will affect the structure and functioning of urban plant communities.
Links
GA14-10723S, research and development projectName: Rostlinná společenstva měst: model vznikajících společenstev budoucnosti
Investor: Czech Science Foundation, Standard Projects
GB14-36079G, research and development projectName: Centrum analýzy a syntézy rostlinné diverzity (PLADIAS) (Acronym: PLADIAS)
Investor: Czech Science Foundation, Projects to promote excellence in basic research
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