Discord at Home, Discord in the World : Is Turkey, NATO’s Eastern Frontier, Sustainably Stable and Peaceful?

BÍZIK, Vladimír. Discord at Home, Discord in the World : Is Turkey, NATO’s Eastern Frontier, Sustainably Stable and Peaceful? In 4. Mezinárodní konference Defence and Strategy 2018. 2018.

Basic information

• Original name: Discord at Home, Discord in the World : Is Turkey, NATO’s Eastern Frontier, Sustainably Stable and Peaceful?
• Name in Czech: Spory vnitřní, spory ve světě : Je stabilita a mír v Turecku jako východní hraninice NATO udržitelná?
• Authors: BÍZIK, Vladimír (703 Slovakia, guarantor, belonging to the institution).
• Edition: 4. Mezinárodní konference Defence and Strategy 2018, 2018.

Other information

• Original language: English
• Type of outcome: Presentations at conferences
• Field of Study: 50601 Political science
• Country of publisher: Czech Republic
• Confidentiality degree: is not subject to a state or trade secret
• RIV identification code: RIV/00216224:14230/18:00106897
• Organization unit: Faculty of Social Studies
• Keywords (in Czech): Turecko; stabilita; společenský řád; kosmopolitismus; racionalita; konflikt; militarizace; civilně-vojenské vztahy; krize demokracie
• Keywords in English: Turkey; Stability; Social Order; Cosmopolitanism; Rationality; Conflict; Militarization; Civil-Military Relations; Democratic Backsliding
• Tags: rivok

Abstract

The aim of this presentation is to determine if it is likely for Turkey to remain a stable country that will avoid serious internal conflicts and violent conflicts abroad. The keynote examines long-term cultural and civilizational variables of cosmopolitanism and rationality. It examines indicators that are more immediately associated with escalation of internal conflict: violent criminality, youth unemployment rate income inequality, corruption perception, and political terror. In the end it examines the level of militarization and the evolution and current state of civil-military relations. It concludes that most of the indicators do not bode well for the stability and democratic consolidation of Turkey. The reason Turkey has not succumbed to violence and social instability is likely due to its high level of political repression. The author concludes that given the characteristics of the Turkish society, two basic scenarios for future development are feasible: Turkey can either become much less stable and a victim to social discord with a chance of dangerous escalation; or it will cement its authoritarianism and manage social order by draconian policing, disproportionate “counter-terrorism” laws and a disregard for the rule of law. Neither of these scenarios is favorable for its NATO allies, who must engage Turkey and work within the framework of existing alliances and international organizations to mitigate the risks of Turkey either becoming a rogue player or a state embroiled in a civil conflict.

Links

• VI20172020094, research and development project: Name: Metodika predikce, včasného varování a prevence hrozeb plynoucích z regionálních ozbrojených konfliktů pro vnitřní bezpečnost ČR (Acronym: Metodika EWS a prevence hrozeb z konfliktu)

Investor: Ministry of the Interior of the CR