J 2019

Spatial modelling of summer climate indices based on local climate zones: expected changes in the future climate of Brno, Czech Republic

GELETIČ, Jan, Michal LEHNERT, Petr DOBROVOLNÝ and Maja ZUVELA-ALOISE

Basic information

Original name

Spatial modelling of summer climate indices based on local climate zones: expected changes in the future climate of Brno, Czech Republic

Authors

GELETIČ, Jan (203 Czech Republic, guarantor), Michal LEHNERT (203 Czech Republic), Petr DOBROVOLNÝ (203 Czech Republic, belonging to the institution) and Maja ZUVELA-ALOISE (40 Austria)

Edition

Climatic Change, Dordrecht, Springer Netherlands, 2019, 0165-0009

Other information

Language

English

Type of outcome

Článek v odborném periodiku

Field of Study

10509 Meteorology and atmospheric sciences

Country of publisher

Netherlands

Confidentiality degree

není předmětem státního či obchodního tajemství

References:

Impact factor

Impact factor: 4.134

RIV identification code

RIV/00216224:14310/19:00109520

Organization unit

Faculty of Science

DOI

UT WoS

000462907000011

Keywords in English

URBAN HEAT LOAD; LARGE-EDDY SIMULATION; TEMPERATURE OBSERVATIONS; CHANGE IMPACTS; EURO-CORDEX; CITIES; HEALTH; SCHEME; CITY; VARIABILITY

Tags

Tags

International impact, Reviewed
Změněno: 18/3/2020 09:14, Mgr. Marie Šípková, DiS.

Abstract

V originále

With global climate change ongoing, there is growing concern about future living conditions in urban areas. This contribution presents the modelled spatial distribution of two daytime (summer days, hot days), and two night-time (warm nights and tropical nights) summer climate indices in the recent and future climate of the urban environment of Brno, Czech Republic, within the framework of local climate zones (LCZs). The thermodynamic MUKLIMO_3 model combined with the CUBOID method is used for spatial modelling. Climate indices are calculated from measurements over three periods (1961-1990, 1971-2000 and 1981-2010). The EURO-CORDEX database for two periods (2021-2050 and 2071-2100) and three representative concentration pathway (RCP) scenarios (2.6, 4.5 and 8.5) are employed to indicate future climate. The results show that the values of summer climate indices will significantly increase in the twenty-first century. In all LCZs, the increase per RCP 8.5 scenario is substantially more pronounced than scenarios per RCP 2.6 and 4.5. Our results indicate that a higher absolute increment in the number of hot days, warm nights and tropical nights is to be expected in already warmer, densely populated midrise and/or compact developments (LCZs 2, 3 and 5) in contrast to a substantially lower increment for forested areas (LCZ A). Considering the projected growth of summer climate indices and the profound differences that exist between LCZs, this study draws urgent attention to the importance of urban planning that works towards moderating the increasing heat stress in central European cities.