Long-term variability of drought indices in the Czech Lands and
effects of external forcings and large-scale climate
variability modes

J 2019

Long-term variability of drought indices in the Czech Lands and effects of external forcings and large-scale climate variability modes

MIKŠOVSKÝ, Jiří, Rudolf BRÁZDIL, Miroslav TRNKA and Petr PIŠOFT

Basic information

Original name

Long-term variability of drought indices in the Czech Lands and effects of external forcings and large-scale climate variability modes

Authors

MIKŠOVSKÝ, Jiří (203 Czech Republic), Rudolf BRÁZDIL (203 Czech Republic, guarantor, belonging to the institution), Miroslav TRNKA (203 Czech Republic) and Petr PIŠOFT (203 Czech Republic)

Edition

Climate of the Past, Göttingen, Published by Copernicus Publications on behalf of the European Geosciences Union, 2019, 1814-9324

Other information

Language

English

Type of outcome

Článek v odborném periodiku

Field of Study

10510 Climatic research

Country of publisher

Germany

Confidentiality degree

není předmětem státního či obchodního tajemství

References:

Full Text

Impact factor

Impact factor: 3.536

RIV identification code

RIV/00216224:14310/19:00107413

Organization unit

Faculty of Science

DOI

http://dx.doi.org/10.5194/cp-15-827-2019

UT WoS

000466420100001

Keywords in English

drought indices; variability; Czech Lands; forcings; climate variability modes; regression analysis; wavelet analysis

Abstract

V originále

While a considerable number of records document the temporal variability of droughts for central Europe, the understanding of its underlying causes remains limited. In this contribution, time series of three drought indices (Standardized Precipitation Index - SPI; Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index - SPEI; Palmer Drought Severity Index - PDSI) are analyzed with regard to mid-to long-term drought variability in the Czech Lands and its potential links to external forcings and internal climate variability modes over the 1501-2006 period. Employing instrumental and proxy-based data characterizing the external climate forcings (solar and volcanic activity, greenhouse gases) in parallel with series representing the activity of selected climate variability modes (El Nino-Southern Oscillation - ENSO; Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation - AMO; Pacific Decadal Oscillation - PDO; North Atlantic Oscillation - NAO), regression and wavelet analyses were deployed to identify and quantify the temporal variability patterns of drought indices and similarity between individual signals. Aside from a strong connection to the NAO, temperatures in the AMO and (particularly) PDO regions were disclosed as one of the possible drivers of inter-decadal variability in the Czech drought regime. Colder and wetter episodes were found to coincide with increased volcanic activity, especially in summer, while no clear signature of solar activity was found. In addition to identification of the links themselves, their temporal stability and structure of their shared periodicities were investigated. The oscillations at periods of approximately 60-100 years were found to be potentially relevant in establishing the teleconnections affecting the long-term variability of central European droughts.

Links

GA17-10026S, research and development project

Name: Epizody sucha v České republice a jejich příčinná podmíněnost

Investor: Czech Science Foundation

Citovat

MIKŠOVSKÝ, Jiří, Rudolf BRÁZDIL, Miroslav TRNKA and Petr PIŠOFT. Long-term variability of drought indices in the Czech Lands and effects of external forcings and large-scale climate variability modes. Climate of the Past. Göttingen: Published by Copernicus Publications on behalf of the European Geosciences Union, 2019, vol. 15, No 2, p. 827-847. ISSN 1814-9324. Available from: https://dx.doi.org/10.5194/cp-15-827-2019.

@article{1532996,
   author = {Mikšovský, Jiří and Brázdil, Rudolf and Trnka, Miroslav and Pišoft, Petr},
   article_location = {Göttingen},
   article_number = {2},
   doi = {http://dx.doi.org/10.5194/cp-15-827-2019},
   keywords = {drought indices; variability; Czech Lands; forcings; climate variability modes; regression analysis; wavelet analysis},
   language = {eng},
   issn = {1814-9324},
   journal = {Climate of the Past},
   title = {Long-term variability of drought indices in the Czech Lands and effects of external forcings and large-scale climate variability modes},
   url = {https://www.clim-past.net/15/827/2019/},
   volume = {15},
   year = {2019}
}

TY  - JOUR
ID  - 1532996
AU  - Mikšovský, Jiří - Brázdil, Rudolf - Trnka, Miroslav - Pišoft, Petr
PY  - 2019
TI  - Long-term variability of drought indices in the Czech Lands and effects of external forcings and large-scale climate variability modes
JF  - Climate of the Past
VL  - 15
IS  - 2
SP  - 827-847
EP  - 827-847
PB  - Published by Copernicus Publications on behalf of the European Geosciences Union
SN  - 18149324
KW  - drought indices
KW  - variability
KW  - Czech Lands
KW  - forcings
KW  - climate variability modes
KW  - regression analysis
KW  - wavelet analysis
UR  - https://www.clim-past.net/15/827/2019/
L2  - https://www.clim-past.net/15/827/2019/
N2  - While a considerable number of records document the temporal variability of droughts for central Europe, the understanding of its underlying causes remains limited. In this contribution, time series of three drought indices (Standardized Precipitation Index - SPI; Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index - SPEI; Palmer Drought Severity Index - PDSI) are analyzed with regard to mid-to long-term drought variability in the Czech Lands and its potential links to external forcings and internal climate variability modes over the 1501-2006 period. Employing instrumental and proxy-based data characterizing the external climate forcings (solar and volcanic activity, greenhouse gases) in parallel with series representing the activity of selected climate variability modes (El Nino-Southern Oscillation - ENSO; Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation - AMO; Pacific Decadal Oscillation - PDO; North Atlantic Oscillation - NAO), regression and wavelet analyses were deployed to identify and quantify the temporal variability patterns of drought indices and similarity between individual signals. Aside from a strong connection to the NAO, temperatures in the AMO and (particularly) PDO regions were disclosed as one of the possible drivers of inter-decadal variability in the Czech drought regime. Colder and wetter episodes were found to coincide with increased volcanic activity, especially in summer, while no clear signature of solar activity was found. In addition to identification of the links themselves, their temporal stability and structure of their shared periodicities were investigated. The oscillations at periods of approximately 60-100 years were found to be potentially relevant in establishing the teleconnections affecting the long-term variability of central European droughts.
ER  -

MIKŠOVSKÝ, Jiří, Rudolf BRÁZDIL, Miroslav TRNKA and Petr PIŠOFT. Long-term variability of drought indices in the Czech Lands and effects of external forcings and large-scale climate variability modes. \textit{Climate of the Past}. Göttingen: Published by Copernicus Publications on behalf of the European Geosciences Union, 2019, vol.~15, No~2, p.~827-847. ISSN~1814-9324. Available from: https://dx.doi.org/10.5194/cp-15-827-2019.

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