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@article{1548796,
author = {Fraňková, Soňa and Urbánek, Petr and Husa, Petr and Němeček, Vratislav and Razavi, Homie and RazaviandShearer, Devin and Chlíbek, Roman and Šperl, Jan},
article_location = {Prague},
article_number = {2},
doi = {http://dx.doi.org/10.21101/cejph.a5350},
keywords = {hepatitis C;disease burden;epidemiology;Czech Republic},
language = {eng},
issn = {1210-7778},
journal = {Central European Journal of Public Health},
title = {Chronic hepatitis C in the Czech Republic: forecasting the disease burden},
url = {http://dx.doi.org/10.21101/cejph.a5350},
volume = {27},
year = {2019}
}
TY - JOUR
ID - 1548796
AU - Fraňková, Soňa - Urbánek, Petr - Husa, Petr - Němeček, Vratislav - Razavi, Homie - Razavi-Shearer, Devin - Chlíbek, Roman - Šperl, Jan
PY - 2019
TI - Chronic hepatitis C in the Czech Republic: forecasting the disease burden
JF - Central European Journal of Public Health
VL - 27
IS - 2
SP - 93-98
EP - 93-98
PB - Tigis s.r.o.
SN - 12107778
KW - hepatitis C;disease burden;epidemiology;Czech Republic
UR - http://dx.doi.org/10.21101/cejph.a5350
L2 - http://dx.doi.org/10.21101/cejph.a5350
N2 - Objective: Chronic HCV infection is associated with cirrhosis of the liver, hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC), and liver transplantation. HCV disease burden and the impact of new potent direct acting antivirals (DAAs) in the Czech Republic are unknown. Methods: Using a modelling framework, HCV disease progression in the Czech Republic was predicted to 2030 under the current standard of care treatment structure. In addition, two strategies to reduce the future burden of HCV infection were modelled: an incremental increase in treatment annually and WHO targets. Results: The number of viremic infected individuals in the Czech Republic is estimated to peak in 2026 (n = 55,130) and to decline by 0.5% by 2030 (n = 54,840). The number of individuals with compensated cirrhosis (n = 1,400), decompensated cirrhosis (n = 80), HCC (n = 70), and liver related deaths (n = 60) is estimated to more than double by 2030. Through aggressive increases in diagnosis and treatment, HCV related mortality may decrease by 70% by 2030. Conclusions: Disease burden associated with chronic HCV infection is projected to peak in the Czech Republic in 30-40 years. Assuming that the current portion of DAAs used remains constant, a significant reduction in HCV disease burden is possible through increased diagnosis and treatment through 2030. This analysis provides evidence in order to facilitate the development of national strategies for HCV care and management in the Czech Republic.
ER -
FRAŇKOVÁ, Soňa, Petr URBÁNEK, Petr HUSA, Vratislav NĚMEČEK, Homie RAZAVI, Devin RAZAVI-SHEARER, Roman CHLÍBEK and Jan ŠPERL. Chronic hepatitis C in the Czech Republic: forecasting the disease burden. \textit{Central European Journal of Public Health}. Prague: Tigis s.r.o., 2019, vol.~27, No~2, p.~93-98. ISSN~1210-7778. Available from: https://dx.doi.org/10.21101/cejph.a5350.
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