J 2019

Chronic hepatitis C in the Czech Republic: forecasting the disease burden

FRAŇKOVÁ, Soňa, Petr URBÁNEK, Petr HUSA, Vratislav NĚMEČEK, Homie RAZAVI et. al.

Basic information

Original name

Chronic hepatitis C in the Czech Republic: forecasting the disease burden

Authors

FRAŇKOVÁ, Soňa (203 Czech Republic, guarantor), Petr URBÁNEK (203 Czech Republic), Petr HUSA (203 Czech Republic, belonging to the institution), Vratislav NĚMEČEK (203 Czech Republic), Homie RAZAVI (840 United States of America), Devin RAZAVI-SHEARER (840 United States of America), Roman CHLÍBEK (203 Czech Republic) and Jan ŠPERL (203 Czech Republic)

Edition

Central European Journal of Public Health, Prague, Tigis s.r.o. 2019, 1210-7778

Other information

Language

English

Type of outcome

Článek v odborném periodiku

Field of Study

30303 Infectious Diseases

Country of publisher

Czech Republic

Confidentiality degree

není předmětem státního či obchodního tajemství

References:

Impact factor

Impact factor: 0.653

RIV identification code

RIV/00216224:14110/19:00110345

Organization unit

Faculty of Medicine

DOI

UT WoS

000472898100002

Keywords in English

hepatitis C;disease burden;epidemiology;Czech Republic

Tags

Tags

International impact, Reviewed
Změněno: 31/1/2020 10:36, Mgr. Tereza Miškechová

Abstract

V originále

Objective: Chronic HCV infection is associated with cirrhosis of the liver, hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC), and liver transplantation. HCV disease burden and the impact of new potent direct acting antivirals (DAAs) in the Czech Republic are unknown. Methods: Using a modelling framework, HCV disease progression in the Czech Republic was predicted to 2030 under the current standard of care treatment structure. In addition, two strategies to reduce the future burden of HCV infection were modelled: an incremental increase in treatment annually and WHO targets. Results: The number of viremic infected individuals in the Czech Republic is estimated to peak in 2026 (n = 55,130) and to decline by 0.5% by 2030 (n = 54,840). The number of individuals with compensated cirrhosis (n = 1,400), decompensated cirrhosis (n = 80), HCC (n = 70), and liver related deaths (n = 60) is estimated to more than double by 2030. Through aggressive increases in diagnosis and treatment, HCV related mortality may decrease by 70% by 2030. Conclusions: Disease burden associated with chronic HCV infection is projected to peak in the Czech Republic in 30-40 years. Assuming that the current portion of DAAs used remains constant, a significant reduction in HCV disease burden is possible through increased diagnosis and treatment through 2030. This analysis provides evidence in order to facilitate the development of national strategies for HCV care and management in the Czech Republic.