Demography vs. Ethnopolitics: What to expect from the 2021 census round in the Western Balkans

ČERMÁK, Petr. Demography vs. Ethnopolitics: What to expect from the 2021 census round in the Western Balkans. In National minorities, migration and security. 2020.

Basic information

• Original name: Demography vs. Ethnopolitics: What to expect from the 2021 census round in the Western Balkans
• Authors: ČERMÁK, Petr.
• Edition: National minorities, migration and security, 2020.

Other information

• Type of outcome: Presentations at conferences
• Confidentiality degree: is not subject to a state or trade secret
• Tags: International impact

Abstract

The paper will discuss the general issue of politicization of ethnic demography and particular implications it may have for the upcoming round of censuses in ethnically divided societies of former Yugoslavia. Censuses play an important political role in ethnically fragmented societies where they determine relative positions of different groups and provide opportunity for their ethno-political mobilisation. Recent censuses have been intensely politicized in most of post-Yugoslav states characterized by ethnic divisions. In some cases, censuses were cancelled (Macedonia) or postponed (Bosnia) because of political tensions they produced between ethnic groups. In other countries, some ethnic minorities boycotted the count (Albanians in Serbia and Serbs in Kosovo). Since the underlying ethnic tensions in Post-Yugoslav space persist, we can expect that the upcoming 2021 census round to be accompanied also by another round of politicization of ethnic demography throughout the region. Some minority groups will probably await the counts with serious concerns about the result and its political consequences, as it can possibly reveal their continuing demographic decline. This can be expected to be, among others, the case of Serbs in Croatia and Kosovo, or Croats in Bosnia. On the other hand, some ethnic groups can probably expect confirmation of their relative demographic growth or rising ethnic identification, such as Bosniak and Roma minorities in Croatia. In ethnically segmented political environments of Bosnia, Macedonia and Montenegro, outcomes of censuses can have important implications for general political settings. Finally, fresh censuses are expected to reveal the actual extent of the recent massive emigration that affected whole population of the region, and its effects on single ethnic communities. The paper will discuss possible responses of single states and groups to these challenges in a comparative perspective focusing on ethno-demographic positions and agendas of ethnic groups across the region.