Minority refugee return in Bosnia 20 years after - confirmation or reversal of ethnic cleansing? Overview of statistical evidence

ČERMÁK, Petr. Minority refugee return in Bosnia 20 years after - confirmation or reversal of ethnic cleansing? Overview of statistical evidence. In National minorities, migration and security in democratic societies. 2017.

Basic information

• Original name: Minority refugee return in Bosnia 20 years after - confirmation or reversal of ethnic cleansing? Overview of statistical evidence
• Authors: ČERMÁK, Petr.
• Edition: National minorities, migration and security in democratic societies, 2017.

Other information

• Type of outcome: Presentations at conferences
• Confidentiality degree: is not subject to a state or trade secret
• Tags: International impact

Abstract

The primary goal of the research is to collect and provide original statistical evidence on actual results of the minority refugee return process in Bosnia and Herzegovina 20 years from its onset and 10 years from its actual end. First, officially declared results of the minority refugee return reported by UNHCR and pre-war demographic figures are compared to newly available census-based data on ethnic structure of 142 municipalities to uncover the real effects of the minority return on the local ethnic structure. This comparison reveals high levels of multi-directional discrepancy between results reported by UNHCR and those indicated by the recent census. Second, municipalities of relative success in the return process are identified through this comparison for single ethnic groups. These include 57 municipalities in total, which are further clustered into 11 wider regions of successful minority return (8 Bosniak, 2 Croat, 1 Serb). Third, in these areas of relative success, the socio-political sustainability of minority returnee groups is assessed through newly collected data on their actual demographic situation, political representation, and proportionality of their actual share of local power. By presenting and analysing these data, the paper has ambition to provide a data-based contribution into the wider debate on impact of the refugee return process on the post-conflict ethnic structure and inter-ethnic relations in Bosnia and Herzegovina.