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@article{1797672,
author = {Trnka, Miroslav and Možný, Martin and Jurečka, František and Balek, Jan and Semerádová, Daniela and Hlavinka, Petr and Štěpánek, Petr and Farda, Aleš and Skalák, Petr and Cienciala, Emil and Čermák, Petr and Chuchma, Filip and Zahradníček, Pavel and Janouš, Dalibor and Fischer, Milan and Žalud, Zdeněk and Brázdil, Rudolf},
article_number = {November},
doi = {http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.agrformet.2021.108583},
keywords = {Wildfire; Fire weather index; Global warming; Fuel aridity; Fire weather trends},
language = {eng},
issn = {0168-1923},
journal = {Agricultural and Forest Meteorology},
title = {Observed and estimated consequences of climate change for the fire weather regime in the moist-temperate climate of the Czech Republic},
url = {https://doi.org/10.1016/j.agrformet.2021.108583},
volume = {310},
year = {2021}
}
TY - JOUR
ID - 1797672
AU - Trnka, Miroslav - Možný, Martin - Jurečka, František - Balek, Jan - Semerádová, Daniela - Hlavinka, Petr - Štěpánek, Petr - Farda, Aleš - Skalák, Petr - Cienciala, Emil - Čermák, Petr - Chuchma, Filip - Zahradníček, Pavel - Janouš, Dalibor - Fischer, Milan - Žalud, Zdeněk - Brázdil, Rudolf
PY - 2021
TI - Observed and estimated consequences of climate change for the fire weather regime in the moist-temperate climate of the Czech Republic
JF - Agricultural and Forest Meteorology
VL - 310
IS - November
SP - "108583"
EP - "108583"
PB - Elsevier
SN - 01681923
KW - Wildfire
KW - Fire weather index
KW - Global warming
KW - Fuel aridity
KW - Fire weather trends
UR - https://doi.org/10.1016/j.agrformet.2021.108583
N2 - The occurrence of major wildfires in countries such as Portugal, Italy and Spain (2017) and Sweden (2018) indicated that wildfires pose a risk across Europe. While Central Europe has not been at the center of such events, observed climate data and climate projections suggest a tendency toward more years with wet and warm winters and dry and hot summers as well as fuel accumulation, leading to more hazardous conditions. Although some existing studies analyzed the differences in wildfire occurrence in this territory based on terrain, soil or vegetation characteristics, the effects of climate change have not been properly appraised. To fill this knowledge gap, we used and tested an ensemble of nine fuel aridity metrics, including three dedicated fire danger rating indices, and evaluated their level of agreement with actual fire occurrence, their ability to explain the interannual variability in wildfire frequency, and their temporal trends. The analysis covered the entire territory of the Czech Republic at 500 m spatial resolution. Two periods were included based on observed (1956-2015) and projected (2020-2100) meteorological data using ensembles of five regional climate models (RCMs) and five global circulation models (GCMs) based on Euro-CORDEX and CMIP5 datasets. For the future, we considered Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 4.5. Our results showed that since 1956, most of the Czech territory has exhibited an increasing frequency of fire weather days (i.e., days with highly conducive wildfire conditions) and an increasing area affected by weather conducive to wildfire occurrence, with the trends accelerating after 2000. The annual variation in the fuel aridity levels (derived solely from meteorological data) explained more than 2/3 of the reported wildfire variability during 1991-2015 over the Czech Republic. The future projections based on the RCM or GCM ensembles indicated a significant increase in fuel aridity and an increase in the area under fire-conducive conditions. Recommendations derived from such robust results are provided for stakeholders seeking to implement adaptation measures.
ER -
TRNKA, Miroslav, Martin MOŽNÝ, František JUREČKA, Jan BALEK, Daniela SEMERÁDOVÁ, Petr HLAVINKA, Petr ŠTĚPÁNEK, Aleš FARDA, Petr SKALÁK, Emil CIENCIALA, Petr ČERMÁK, Filip CHUCHMA, Pavel ZAHRADNÍČEK, Dalibor JANOUŠ, Milan FISCHER, Zdeněk ŽALUD and Rudolf BRÁZDIL. Observed and estimated consequences of climate change for the fire weather regime in the moist-temperate climate of the Czech Republic. \textit{Agricultural and Forest Meteorology}. Elsevier, 2021, vol.~310, November, p.~''108583'', 16 pp. ISSN~0168-1923. Available from: https://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.agrformet.2021.108583.
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