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@article{2297924,
author = {Přibylová, Lenka and Eclerová, Veronika and Májek, Ondřej and Jarkovský, Jiří and Pavlík, Tomáš and Dušek, Ladislav},
article_number = {7},
doi = {http://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0287959},
keywords = {COVID 19; Virus testing; Hospitals; Czech Republic; Hospitalizations; Infectious diseases; Respiratory infections; SARS CoV 2},
language = {eng},
issn = {1932-6203},
journal = {PLoS ONE},
title = {Using real-time ascertainment rate estimate from infection and hospitalization dataset for modeling the spread of infectious disease: COVID-19 case study in the Czech Republic},
url = {https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0287959},
volume = {18},
year = {2023}
}
TY - JOUR
ID - 2297924
AU - Přibylová, Lenka - Eclerová, Veronika - Májek, Ondřej - Jarkovský, Jiří - Pavlík, Tomáš - Dušek, Ladislav
PY - 2023
TI - Using real-time ascertainment rate estimate from infection and hospitalization dataset for modeling the spread of infectious disease: COVID-19 case study in the Czech Republic
JF - PLoS ONE
VL - 18
IS - 7
SP - 1-17
EP - 1-17
PB - Public Library of Science
SN - 19326203
KW - COVID 19
KW - Virus testing
KW - Hospitals
KW - Czech Republic
KW - Hospitalizations
KW - Infectious diseases
KW - Respiratory infections
KW - SARS CoV 2
UR - https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0287959
N2 - We present a novel approach to estimate the time-varying ascertainment rate in almost real-time, based on the surveillance of positively tested infectious and hospital admission data. We also address the age dependence of the estimate. The ascertainment rate estimation is based on the Bayes theorem. It can be easily calculated and used (i) as part of a mechanistic model of the disease spread or (ii) to estimate the unreported infections or changes in their proportion in almost real-time as one of the early-warning signals in case of undetected outbreak emergence. The paper also contains a case study of the COVID-19 epidemic in the Czech Republic. The case study demonstrates the usage of the ascertainment rate estimate in retrospective analysis, epidemic monitoring, explanations of differences between waves, usage in the national Anti-epidemic system, and monitoring of the effectiveness of non-pharmaceutical interventions on Czech nationwide surveillance datasets. The Czech data reveal that the probability of hospitalization due to SARS-CoV-2 infection for the senior population was 12 times higher than for the non-senior population in the monitored period from the beginning of March 2020 to the end of May 2021. In a mechanistic model of COVID-19 spread in the Czech Republic, the ascertainment rate enables us to explain the links between all basic compartments, including new cases, hospitalizations, and deaths.
ER -
PŘIBYLOVÁ, Lenka, Veronika ECLEROVÁ, Ondřej MÁJEK, Jiří JARKOVSKÝ, Tomáš PAVLÍK and Ladislav DUŠEK. Using real-time ascertainment rate estimate from infection and hospitalization dataset for modeling the spread of infectious disease: COVID-19 case study in the Czech Republic. \textit{PLoS ONE}. Public Library of Science, 2023, vol.~18, No~7, p.~1-17. ISSN~1932-6203. Available from: https://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0287959.
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