Destabilization of a seasonal synchronization in a population model with a seasonally varying Allee effect
Authors
PŘIBYLOVÁ, Lenka (203 Czech Republic, guarantor, belonging to the institution), Deeptajyoti SEN (356 India, belonging to the institution) and Veronika ECLEROVÁ (203 Czech Republic, belonging to the institution)
Edition
Applied Mathematics and Computation, Elsevier, 2024, 0096-3003
Climate change causing large seasonal fluctuations is likely to lead to an increase in the average threshold of the Allee effect as well as an increase in its seasonal variability. In this paper, we show that a seasonally synchronized predator-prey system can be strongly destabilized by these changes in the threshold of the Allee effect. The typical result first leads to two-year and multiyear cycles by the principle of period doubling on a folded Möbius strip, up to the emergence of a chaotic and hyper-chaotic attractor living close to the trivial equilibrium corresponding to the extinction of populations. Moreover, this instability of the ecosystem can be hidden for a long time and the transition to its basin of attraction can occur by external perturbation in a random and irreversible manner. We also reveal a double folding of the 1:1 synchronized cycle manifold inside the corresponding Arnold tongue and hysteresis similar to well-known Duffing oscillator.
Links
MUNI/A/1132/2022, interní kód MU
Name: Matematické a statistické modelování 7
Investor: Masaryk University
MUNI/A/1342/2021, interní kód MU
Name: Matematické a statistické modelování 6 (Acronym: MaStaMo6)
Investor: Masaryk University
101063853, interní kód MU
Name: Models with cross-interactions between partial dynamical processes aiming to understand significant or abrupt dynamic changes. (Acronym: CrossInteractions)
Investor: European Union, Marie Skłodowska-Curie Postdoctoral Fellowships (MSCA PF)