Predicting the next pandemic: VACCELERATE ranking of the World
Health Organization’s Blueprint for Action to Prevent Epidemics

J 2024

Predicting the next pandemic: VACCELERATE ranking of the World Health Organization’s Blueprint for Action to Prevent Epidemics

SALMANTON-GARCÍA, Jon, Pauline WIPFLER, Janine LECKLER, Pontus NAUCLÉR, Patrick W MALLON et. al.

Basic information

Original name

Predicting the next pandemic: VACCELERATE ranking of the World Health Organization’s Blueprint for Action to Prevent Epidemics

Authors

Edition

TRAVEL MEDICINE AND INFECTIOUS DISEASE, ENGLAND, ELSEVIER SCI LTD, 2024, 1477-8939

Other information

Language

English

Type of outcome

Článek v odborném periodiku

Field of Study

30303 Infectious Diseases

Country of publisher

United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland

Confidentiality degree

není předmětem státního či obchodního tajemství

References:

URL

Impact factor

Impact factor: 12.000 in 2022

Organization unit

Faculty of Medicine

DOI

http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.tmaid.2023.102676

UT WoS

001138577900001

Keywords in English

WHO R&D Blueprint for action to prevent epidemics; Pandemic; Influenza viruses; Disease X; SARS-CoV-2; SARS-CoV; Ebola virus; Infectious disease

Abstract

V originále

Introduction: The World Health Organization (WHO)’s Research and Development (R&D) Blueprint for Action to Prevent Epidemics, a plan of action, highlighted several infectious diseases as crucial targets for prevention. These infections were selected based on a thorough assessment of factors such as transmissibility, infectivity, severity, and evolutionary potential. In line with this blueprint, the VACCELERATE Site Network approached infectious disease experts to rank the diseases listed in the WHO R&D Blueprint according to their perceived risk of triggering a pandemic. VACCELERATE is an EU-funded collaborative European network of clinical trial sites, established to respond to emerging pandemics and enhance vaccine development capabilities. Methods: Between February and June 2023, a survey was conducted using an online form to collect data from members of the VACCELERATE Site Network and infectious disease experts worldwide. Participants were asked to rank various pathogens based on their perceived risk of causing a pandemic, including those listed in the WHO R&D Blueprint and additional pathogens. Results: A total of 187 responses were obtained from infectious disease experts representing 57 countries, with Germany, Spain, and Italy providing the highest number of replies. Influenza viruses received the highest rankings among the pathogens, with 79 % of participants including them in their top rankings. Disease X, SARSCoV- 2, SARS-CoV, and Ebola virus were also ranked highly. Hantavirus, Lassa virus, Nipah virus, and henipavirus were among the bottom-ranked pathogens in terms of pandemic potential. Conclusion: Influenza, SARS-CoV, SARS-CoV-2, and Ebola virus were found to be the most concerning pathogens with pandemic potential, characterised by transmissibility through respiratory droplets and a reported history of epidemic or pandemic outbreaks.

Citovat

SALMANTON-GARCÍA, Jon, Pauline WIPFLER, Janine LECKLER, Pontus NAUCLÉR, Patrick W MALLON, Patricxia CJL BRUIJNING-VERHAGEN, HJ SCHMITT, Ulrich BETHE, Ole F OLESEN, Fiona A STEWART, Kerstin ALBUS and OA CORNELY. Predicting the next pandemic: VACCELERATE ranking of the World Health Organization’s Blueprint for Action to Prevent Epidemics. TRAVEL MEDICINE AND INFECTIOUS DISEASE. ENGLAND: ELSEVIER SCI LTD, 2024, vol. 57, No 102676, p. 1-6. ISSN 1477-8939. Available from: https://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.tmaid.2023.102676.

@article{2358067,
   author = {SalmantonandGarcía, Jon and Wipfler, Pauline and Leckler, Janine and Nauclér, Pontus and Mallon, Patrick W and BruijningandVerhagen, Patricxia CJL and Schmitt, HJ and Bethe, Ulrich and Olesen, Ole F and Stewart, Fiona A and Albus, Kerstin and Cornely, OA},
   article_location = {ENGLAND},
   article_number = {102676},
   doi = {http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.tmaid.2023.102676},
   keywords = {WHO R&D Blueprint for action to prevent epidemics; Pandemic; Influenza viruses; Disease X; SARS-CoV-2; SARS-CoV; Ebola virus; Infectious disease},
   language = {eng},
   issn = {1477-8939},
   journal = {TRAVEL MEDICINE AND INFECTIOUS DISEASE},
   title = {Predicting the next pandemic: VACCELERATE ranking of the World Health Organization’s Blueprint for Action to Prevent Epidemics},
   url = {https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1477893923001369?pes=vor},
   volume = {57},
   year = {2024}
}

TY  - JOUR
ID  - 2358067
AU  - Salmanton-García, Jon - Wipfler, Pauline - Leckler, Janine - Nauclér, Pontus - Mallon, Patrick W - Bruijning-Verhagen, Patricxia CJL - Schmitt, HJ - Bethe, Ulrich - Olesen, Ole F - Stewart, Fiona A - Albus, Kerstin - Cornely, OA
PY  - 2024
TI  - Predicting the next pandemic: VACCELERATE ranking of the World Health Organization’s Blueprint for Action to Prevent Epidemics
JF  - TRAVEL MEDICINE AND INFECTIOUS DISEASE
VL  - 57
IS  - 102676
SP  - 1-6
EP  - 1-6
PB  - ELSEVIER SCI LTD
SN  - 14778939
KW  - WHO R&D Blueprint for action to prevent epidemics
KW  - Pandemic
KW  - Influenza viruses
KW  - Disease X
KW  - SARS-CoV-2
KW  - SARS-CoV
KW  - Ebola virus
KW  - Infectious disease
UR  - https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1477893923001369?pes=vor
N2  - Introduction: The World Health Organization (WHO)’s Research and Development (R&D) Blueprint for Action to Prevent Epidemics, a plan of action, highlighted several infectious diseases as crucial targets for prevention. These infections were selected based on a thorough assessment of factors such as transmissibility, infectivity, severity, and evolutionary potential. In line with this blueprint, the VACCELERATE Site Network approached infectious disease experts to rank the diseases listed in the WHO R&D Blueprint according to their perceived risk of triggering a pandemic. VACCELERATE is an EU-funded collaborative European network of clinical trial sites, established to respond to emerging pandemics and enhance vaccine development capabilities. Methods: Between February and June 2023, a survey was conducted using an online form to collect data from members of the VACCELERATE Site Network and infectious disease experts worldwide. Participants were asked to rank various pathogens based on their perceived risk of causing a pandemic, including those listed in the WHO R&D Blueprint and additional pathogens. Results: A total of 187 responses were obtained from infectious disease experts representing 57 countries, with Germany, Spain, and Italy providing the highest number of replies. Influenza viruses received the highest rankings among the pathogens, with 79 % of participants including them in their top rankings. Disease X, SARSCoV- 2, SARS-CoV, and Ebola virus were also ranked highly. Hantavirus, Lassa virus, Nipah virus, and henipavirus were among the bottom-ranked pathogens in terms of pandemic potential. Conclusion: Influenza, SARS-CoV, SARS-CoV-2, and Ebola virus were found to be the most concerning pathogens with pandemic potential, characterised by transmissibility through respiratory droplets and a reported history of epidemic or pandemic outbreaks.
ER  -

SALMANTON-GARCÍA, Jon, Pauline WIPFLER, Janine LECKLER, Pontus NAUCLÉR, Patrick W MALLON, Patricxia CJL BRUIJNING-VERHAGEN, HJ SCHMITT, Ulrich BETHE, Ole F OLESEN, Fiona A STEWART, Kerstin ALBUS and OA CORNELY. Predicting the next pandemic: VACCELERATE ranking of the World Health Organization’s Blueprint for Action to Prevent Epidemics. \textit{TRAVEL MEDICINE AND INFECTIOUS DISEASE}. ENGLAND: ELSEVIER SCI LTD, 2024, vol.~57, No~102676, p.~1-6. ISSN~1477-8939. Available from: https://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.tmaid.2023.102676.

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