J 2024

Recent human-induced atmospheric drying across Europe unprecedented in the last 400 years

TREYDTE, Kerstin, Laibao LIU, Ryan S. PADRON, Elisabet MARTINEZ-SANCHO, Flurin BABST et. al.

Basic information

Original name

Recent human-induced atmospheric drying across Europe unprecedented in the last 400 years

Authors

TREYDTE, Kerstin, Laibao LIU, Ryan S. PADRON, Elisabet MARTINEZ-SANCHO, Flurin BABST, David C. FRANK, Arthur GESSLER, Ansgar KAHMEN, Benjamin POULTER, Sonia I. SENEVIRATNE, Annemiek I. STEGEHUIS, Rob WILSON, Laia ANDREU-HAYLES, Roderick BALE, Zdzislaw BEDNARZ, Tatjana BOETTGER, Frank BERNINGER, Ulf BÜNTGEN (276 Germany, belonging to the institution), Valerie DAUX, Isabel DORADO-LINAN, Jan ESPER, Michael FRIEDRICH, Mary GAGEN, Michael GRABNER, Hakan GRUDD, Bjoern E GUNNARSSON, Emilia GUTIERREZ, Polona HAFNER, Marika HAUPT, Emmi HILASVUORI, Ingo HEINRICH, Gerhard HELLE, Risto JALKANEN, Hoegne JUNGNER, Maarit KALELA-BRUNDIN, Andreas KESSLER, Andreas KIRCHHEFER, Stephan KLESSE, Marek KRAPIEC, Tom LEVANIC, Markus LEUENBERGER, Hans W LINDERHOLM, Danny MCCARROLL, Valerie MASSON-DELMOTTE, Slawomira PAWELCZYK, Anna PAZDUR, Octavi PLANELLS, Rutile PUKIENE, Katja T RINNE-GARMSTON, Iain ROBERTSON, Antonio SARACINO, Matthias SAURER, Gerhard H SCHLESER, Kristina SEFTIGEN, Rolf T W SIEGWOLF, Eloni SONNINEN, Michel STIEVENARD, Elzbieta SZYCHOWSKA-KRAPIEC, Malgorzata SZYMASZEK, Luigi TODARO, John S WATERHOUSE, Martin WEIGL-KUSKA, Rosemarie B WEIGT, Rupert WIMMER, Ewan J WOODLEY, Adomas VITAS, Giles YOUNG and Neil J LOADER

Edition

Nature Geoscience, Nature Portfolio, 2024, 1752-0894

Other information

Language

English

Type of outcome

Článek v odborném periodiku

Field of Study

10511 Environmental sciences

Country of publisher

Germany

Confidentiality degree

není předmětem státního či obchodního tajemství

References:

Impact factor

Impact factor: 18.300 in 2022

Organization unit

Faculty of Science

UT WoS

001131836300001

Keywords in English

Attribution; Climate and Earth system modelling; Forest ecology; Palaeoclimate; Stable isotope analysis

Tags

Tags

International impact, Reviewed
Změněno: 22/1/2024 12:23, Mgr. Marie Šípková, DiS.

Abstract

V originále

The vapor pressure deficit reflects the difference between how much moisture the atmosphere could and actually does hold, a factor that fundamentally affects evapotranspiration, ecosystem functioning, and vegetation carbon uptake. Its spatial variability and long-term trends under natural versus human-influenced climate are poorly known despite being essential for predicting future effects on natural ecosystems and human societies such as crop yield, wildfires, and health. Here we combine regionally distinct reconstructions of pre-industrial summer vapor pressure deficit variability from Europe's largest oxygen-isotope network of tree-ring cellulose with observational records and Earth system model simulations with and without human forcing included. We demonstrate that an intensification of atmospheric drying during the recent decades across different European target regions is unprecedented in a pre-industrial context and that it is attributed to human influence with more than 98% probability. The magnitude of this trend is largest in Western and Central Europe, the Alps and Pyrenees region, and the smallest in southern Fennoscandia. In view of the extreme drought and compound events of the recent years, further atmospheric drying poses an enhanced risk to vegetation, specifically in the densely populated areas of the European temperate lowlands.