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@misc{2394287, author = {Brázdik, František and Žáček, Jan and Keseliová, Tatiana and Musil, Karel and Šnobl, Radek and Šolc, Jan and Tvrz, Stanislav}, keywords = {forecasting, inflation, expected inflation, inflation expectations index, structural models}, publisher = {Česká národní banka}, title = {Understanding Inflation Expectations: Data, Drivers and Policy Implications}, url = {https://www.cnb.cz/export/sites/cnb/en/economic-research/.galleries/research_publications/cnb_wp/cnbwp_2024_03.pdf}, year = {2024} }
TY - GEN ID - 2394287 AU - Brázdik, František - Žáček, Jan - Keseliová, Tatiana - Musil, Karel - Šnobl, Radek - Šolc, Jan - Tvrz, Stanislav PY - 2024 TI - Understanding Inflation Expectations: Data, Drivers and Policy Implications VL - CNB WP 3/2024 PB - Česká národní banka KW - forecasting, inflation, expected inflation, inflation expectations index, structural models UR - https://www.cnb.cz/export/sites/cnb/en/economic-research/.galleries/research_publications/cnb_wp/cnbwp_2024_03.pdf N2 - We investigate inflation expectations and their measures in the context of the 2022 inflation surge in the Czech Republic. Using data and econometric analyses, we explore how inflation expectations are formed and how they may affect inflation developments. To capture the overall trend of inflation expectations in the Czech economy, we develop a Common Inflation Expectations index. Additionally, we extend the CNB’s g3+ core projection model by incorporating endogenous expectation premiums that reflect elevated inflation expectations. Utilizing the Common Inflation Expectations index and the modified model, we construct a simulation that provides policyrelevant outcomes when addressing high inflation. By presenting the simulation, we emphasize the importance and relevance of our research for practical policymaking. ER -
BRÁZDIK, František, Jan ŽÁČEK, Tatiana KESELIOVÁ, Karel MUSIL, Radek ŠNOBL, Jan ŠOLC and Stanislav TVRZ. \textit{Understanding Inflation Expectations: Data, Drivers and Policy Implications}. Česká národní banka, 2024, 40 pp. CNB WP 3/2024. ISSN~1803-7070.
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