Detailed Information on Publication Record
2008
Will we witness an upturn in European fertility in the near future?
VAN PEER, Christine and Ladislav RABUŠICBasic information
Original name
Will we witness an upturn in European fertility in the near future?
Name in Czech
Budeme v blízké budoucnosti svědky nárůstu evropské plodnosti?
Authors
VAN PEER, Christine (56 Belgium) and Ladislav RABUŠIC (203 Czech Republic, guarantor)
Edition
1. vyd. The Hague, People, Population Change and Policies - Lessons from the Population Policy Acceptance Study - Volume 1: Family change, p. 215-241, 27 pp. European Studies of Population , 16, 2008
Publisher
Springer
Other information
Language
English
Type of outcome
Kapitola resp. kapitoly v odborné knize
Field of Study
50000 5. Social Sciences
Country of publisher
Netherlands
Confidentiality degree
není předmětem státního či obchodního tajemství
RIV identification code
RIV/00216224:14230/08:00025897
Organization unit
Faculty of Social Studies
ISBN
978-1-4020-6608-5
Keywords in English
Fertility; Expected fertility; Values; Childnesness; Value of children
Tags
International impact, Reviewed
Změněno: 22/5/2009 10:58, prof. PhDr. Ladislav Rabušic, CSc.
V originále
Fertility in many European countries is not only low but very low and in some even lowest low. What fertility levels are going to prevail in near future? Firstly, some indicators of the fertility climate are presented. The study shows that a country's actual level of fertility correlates to people's attitudes on how fertility should be dealt with on a societal level. Secondly, levels of expected feretility, so called hypothetical completed fertility (HCF), are calculated on the basis of the information on individually-experssed intentions in the IPPAS dayabase. The structure of the HCF indicator is analysed, together with its interrelation with the value-of-children indicator. Multinomial regression is performed to find the net effects of factors which we regard as relevant to expected fertility. Our results lead us to some speculative ideas. First, it seems to us that we recorded hints of a possible end of lowest low fertility. Second, we are inclined to believe that we found indicators which entitle us to express our assumption that Europe is moving to a two-speed fertility area. While fertility levels in former Eastern European countries like Czech Republic seem to be recovering (as the postponement effect is being abandoned), German speaking countries seem to move into another transition: from mediate to low fertility. The question is, howevever, whether the expectations will be realized? Our results are more or less scenarios of the future. Whether they become reality will depend on conditions on the family policy context, but also on the European labour market, the availability of (part-time) jobs, the gender equity system, changes in family values, congruency between partners. Alleviating the burden for young mothers is the necessary precondition for women to realize their fertility intentions.
In Czech
Plodnost je v mnnoha zemích Evropy nejen velmi nízká, je dokonce extrémně nízká. V této kapitole se ptáme, jaká intenzita plosnosti bude v Evropě převládat v blízké budoucnosti. Činíme tak za základě analýzy indikátoru hypotetické konečné plodnosti, která je jako závisle proměnná podrobena multinomické regresi. Výsledky naznačují, že fáze extrémně nízké plodnosti jsou v Evropě u konce. Dále se zdá, že plodnost v Evropě su bude vyvíjet dvourychlostně. Zatímco na jedné straně se plodnost v bývalých východoevropských zemích bude zotavovat z nízkých hodnot, v německy mluvících zemích může dojít k posunu plodnosti od středních hodnot k hodnotám nízkým. Zdali se tyto tendence naplní ovšem záleží na řadě faktorů, především na kontextu rodinné politiky, podmínkách pracovního trhua genderové rovnosti mezi partnery.
Links
| MSM0021622408, plan (intention) |
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