MOCHŤAK, Michal. Predictioneer´s Game: kolektívne násilie v Ekvádore (Predictioneer’s Game: the Collective Violence in Ecuador). Obrana a strategie. Brno: Univerzita obrany, 2011, vol. 11, No 2, p. 69-90, 21 pp. ISSN 1214-6463.
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Basic information
Original name Predictioneer´s Game: kolektívne násilie v Ekvádore
Name (in English) Predictioneer’s Game: the Collective Violence in Ecuador
Authors MOCHŤAK, Michal (703 Slovakia, guarantor, belonging to the institution).
Edition Obrana a strategie, Brno, Univerzita obrany, 2011, 1214-6463.
Other information
Original language Slovak
Type of outcome Article in a journal
Field of Study 50601 Political science
Country of publisher Czech Republic
Confidentiality degree is not subject to a state or trade secret
WWW URL
RIV identification code RIV/00216224:14230/11:00054460
Organization unit Faculty of Social Studies
Keywords in English Collective violence; Ecuador; prediction; Predictioneer’s Game
Tags Reviewed
Changed by Changed by: Mgr. et Mgr. Michal Mochťak, Ph.D., učo 219883. Changed: 3. 4. 2012 16:48.
Abstract
Text analyzuje kolektívne násilie v Ekvádore z konca septembra 2010. Situácia bola charakterizovaná ako pokus o štátny prevrat (Coup d'état), pričom sa v jeho priebehu eskalovalo násilie medzi nepriateľskými tábormi. Prezident bol napadnutý vzbúrenými jednotkami štátnej polície, ktoré protestovali proti plánovaným škrtom v silových zložkách. Spoločnosť bola ohrozovaná lokálnymi nepokojmi, dočasnými prejavmi anarchie a násilnými stretmi, ktoré viedli k vyhláseniu výnimočného stavu. Na základe empirických dát je následne vytvorený prediktívny model podľa analytického nástroja “Predictioneer’s Game“ definovaný Bruceom Bueno de Mesquita. Predikcia je zameraná na predpoveď stability režimu v kontexte udalostí z 30. septembra 2010.
Abstract (in English)
The paper analyses collective violence in Ecuador from the end of September 2010. The situation was characterized as a Coup d'état when violent clashes between hostile camps were identified. The president was attacked by rebellious units of state police that had protested against the planned cuts of benefits and salaries in the law enforcement sector. The society was threatened by local riots, temporary anarchy and violent clashes that led to the declaration of state of emergency by president Correa. On the basis of empirical data, the prediction model is designed according to the analytical tool “Predictioneer’s Game“ defined by Bruce Bueno de Mesquita. The prediction is aimed at the forecast of the stability of regime in the context of the events from the 30th September 2010.
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