J 2012

Projecting trends in plant invasions in Europe under different scenarios of future land-use change

CHYTRÝ, Milan, Jan WILD, Petr PYŠEK, Vojtěch JAROŠÍK, Nicolas DENDONCKER et. al.

Basic information

Original name

Projecting trends in plant invasions in Europe under different scenarios of future land-use change

Name in Czech

Projekce trendů v rostlinných invazích v Evropě při různých scénářích budoucích změn využití krajiny

Authors

CHYTRÝ, Milan (203 Czech Republic, guarantor, belonging to the institution), Jan WILD (203 Czech Republic), Petr PYŠEK (203 Czech Republic, belonging to the institution), Vojtěch JAROŠÍK (203 Czech Republic, belonging to the institution), Nicolas DENDONCKER (826 United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland), Isabelle REGINSTER (56 Belgium), Joan PINO (724 Spain), Lindsay C. MASKELL (826 United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland), Montserrat VILÀ (724 Spain), Jan PERGL (203 Czech Republic), Ingolf KÜHN (276 Germany, belonging to the institution), Joachim H. SPANGENBERG (276 Germany) and Josef SETTELE (276 Germany)

Edition

Global Ecology and Biogeography, Wiley-Blackwell, 2012, 1466-822X

Other information

Language

English

Type of outcome

Článek v odborném periodiku

Field of Study

10600 1.6 Biological sciences

Country of publisher

United States of America

Confidentiality degree

není předmětem státního či obchodního tajemství

Impact factor

Impact factor: 7.223

RIV identification code

RIV/00216224:14310/12:00059190

Organization unit

Faculty of Science

UT WoS

000298020200007

Keywords in English

ALARM scenarios; alien plants; biological invasions; environmental change; habitat types; neophytes; non-native species; risk assessment

Tags

Tags

International impact, Reviewed
Změněno: 11/4/2013 14:44, Ing. Andrea Mikešková

Abstract

V originále

Aim: Recent studies of plant invasions in habitat types across different climatic regions of Europe have made it possible to produce a European map of plant invasions. Parallel research led to the formulation of integrated scenarios of future socio-economic development, which were used to create spatially explicit scenarios of European land-use change for the 21st century. Here we integrate these two research lines and produce the first spatially explicit projections of plant invasions in Europe for the years 2020, 2050 and 2080. Location: The European Union (except Bulgaria and Romania), Norway and Switzerland. Methods: We used vegetation plots from southern, central and north-western Europe to quantify mean levels of invasion by neophytes (post-1500 alien plants) for forest, grassland, urban, arable and abandoned land. We projected these values on the land-use scenarios for 2020, 2050 and 2080, and constructed maps of future plant invasions under three socio-economic scenarios assuming: (1) deregulation and globalization, (2) continuation of current policies with standing regulations, and (3) a shift towards sustainable development. Results: Under all scenarios an increase in the level of invasion was projected for north-western and northern Europe, and under the first two scenarios a decrease for some agricultural areas of eastern Europe where abandonment of agricultural land is expected. A net increase in the level of invasion over Europe was projected under scenarios 2 and 3. Main conclusions: The polarization between more and less invaded regions is likely to increase if future policies are oriented on economic deregulation, which may result in serious future problems in some areas of Europe. However, an implementation of sustainability policies would not automatically restrict the spread of alien plants. Therefore invasions require specific policy approaches beyond the more general ones, which are currently on the policy agenda and were tested in the scenarios.

Links

MSM0021622416, plan (intention)
Name: Diverzita biotických společenstev a populací: kauzální analýza variability v prostoru a čase
Investor: Ministry of Education, Youth and Sports of the CR, Diversity of Biotic Communities and Populations: Causal Analysis of variation in space and time