Cereal harvest dates in the Czech Republic between 1501 and
2008 as a proxy for March–June temperature reconstruction

J 2012

Cereal harvest dates in the Czech Republic between 1501 and 2008 as a proxy for March–June temperature reconstruction

MOŽNÝ, Martin, Rudolf BRÁZDIL, Petr DOBROVOLNÝ and Mirek TRNKA

Basic information

Original name

Cereal harvest dates in the Czech Republic between 1501 and 2008 as a proxy for March–June temperature reconstruction

Authors

MOŽNÝ, Martin (203 Czech Republic, guarantor), Rudolf BRÁZDIL (203 Czech Republic, belonging to the institution), Petr DOBROVOLNÝ (203 Czech Republic, belonging to the institution) and Mirek TRNKA (203 Czech Republic)

Edition

Climatic Change, Dordrecht-Boston-London, Kluwer Academic Publishers, 2012, 0165-0009

Other information

Language

English

Type of outcome

Článek v odborném periodiku

Field of Study

10500 1.5. Earth and related environmental sciences

Country of publisher

Netherlands

Confidentiality degree

není předmětem státního či obchodního tajemství

Impact factor

Impact factor: 3.634

RIV identification code

RIV/00216224:14310/12:00057332

Organization unit

Faculty of Science

DOI

http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s10584-011-0075-z

UT WoS

000299346900017

Keywords (in Czech)

data počátku žní; rekonstrukce teploty vzduchu

Keywords in English

cereal harvest; temperature reconstruction

Abstract

V originále

Cereal crop harvests reflect the weather patterns of the period immediately preceding them, and thus the dates at which they begin may be used as a source of proxy data on regional climate. Using systematic phenological observations in the Czech Lands (now known as the Czech Republic) after 1845, together with exploration of further surviving documentary evidence (chronicles,diaries, financial accounts etc.), it has proved possible to create series of winter wheat harvest dates for the period 1501–2008. Employing linear regression, the harvesting dates of the main cereal species (wheat, rye, barley, oats) were first converted to winter wheat harvest days and then normalised to the same altitude above sea level. The next step consisted of using series of winter wheat harvest dates to reconstruct mean March–June temperatures in the Czech Republic, applying standard palaeoclimatological methods. Series reconstructed by linear regression explain 70% of temperature variability. A profound cold period corresponding with late winter wheat harvests was noted between 1659 and 1705. In contrast, warm periods (i.e. early winter wheat harvests) were found for the periods of 1517–1542, 1788–1834 and 1946–2008. Theperiod after 1951 is the warmest of all throughout the entire 1501–2008 period. Comparisons with other European temperature reconstructions derived from documentary sources (including grape harvest dates), tree-rings and instrumental data reveal generally close agreement, with significant correlations. Lower correlations around A.D. 1650 and 1750 may be partly related to deterioration of socio-economic conditions in the Czech Lands resulting from prolonged wars. The results obtained demonstrate that it is possible to use widely-available cereal harvest data for climate analysis and also that such data constitute an independent proxy data series for the region of Central Europe crucial to further studies of the potential impact of climatic variability and climate change on agriculture.

Links

GA521/08/1682, research and development project

Name: Vliv klimatické variability a meteorologických extrémů na produkci vybraných plodin v letech 1801-2007

Investor: Czech Science Foundation, Effect of climate variability and meteorological extremes on the production of selected crops between 1801 and 2007

Citovat

MOŽNÝ, Martin, Rudolf BRÁZDIL, Petr DOBROVOLNÝ and Mirek TRNKA. Cereal harvest dates in the Czech Republic between 1501 and 2008 as a proxy for March–June temperature reconstruction. Climatic Change. Dordrecht-Boston-London: Kluwer Academic Publishers, 2012, vol. 110, 3-4, p. 801-821. ISSN 0165-0009. Available from: https://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s10584-011-0075-z.

@article{978321,
   author = {Možný, Martin and Brázdil, Rudolf and Dobrovolný, Petr and Trnka, Mirek},
   article_location = {Dordrecht-Boston-London},
   article_number = {3-4},
   doi = {http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s10584-011-0075-z},
   keywords = {cereal harvest; temperature reconstruction},
   language = {eng},
   issn = {0165-0009},
   journal = {Climatic Change},
   title = {Cereal harvest dates in the Czech Republic between 1501 and 2008 as a proxy for March–June temperature reconstruction},
   volume = {110},
   year = {2012}
}

TY  - JOUR
ID  - 978321
AU  - Možný, Martin - Brázdil, Rudolf - Dobrovolný, Petr - Trnka, Mirek
PY  - 2012
TI  - Cereal harvest dates in the Czech Republic between 1501 and 2008 as a proxy for March–June temperature reconstruction
JF  - Climatic Change
VL  - 110
IS  - 3-4
SP  - 801-821
EP  - 801-821
PB  - Kluwer Academic Publishers
SN  - 01650009
KW  - cereal harvest
KW  - temperature reconstruction
N2  - Cereal crop harvests reflect the weather patterns of the period immediately preceding them, and thus the dates at which they begin may be used as a source of proxy data on regional climate. Using systematic phenological observations in the Czech Lands (now known as the Czech Republic) after 1845, together with exploration of further surviving documentary evidence (chronicles,diaries, financial accounts etc.), it has proved possible to create series of winter wheat harvest dates for the period 1501–2008. Employing linear regression, the harvesting dates of the main cereal species (wheat, rye, barley, oats) were first converted to winter wheat harvest days and then normalised to the same altitude above sea level. The next step consisted of using series of winter wheat harvest dates to reconstruct mean March–June temperatures in the Czech Republic, applying standard palaeoclimatological methods. Series reconstructed by linear regression explain 70% of temperature variability. A profound cold period corresponding with late winter wheat harvests was noted between 1659 and 1705. In contrast, warm periods (i.e. early winter wheat harvests) were found for the periods of 1517–1542, 1788–1834 and 1946–2008. Theperiod after 1951 is the warmest of all throughout the entire 1501–2008 period. Comparisons with other European temperature reconstructions derived from documentary sources (including grape harvest dates), tree-rings and instrumental data reveal generally close agreement, with significant correlations. Lower correlations around A.D. 1650 and 1750 may be partly related to deterioration of socio-economic conditions in the Czech Lands resulting from prolonged wars. The results obtained demonstrate that it is possible to use widely-available cereal harvest data for climate analysis and also that such data constitute an independent proxy data series for the region of Central Europe crucial to further studies of the potential impact of climatic variability and climate change on agriculture.
ER  -

MOŽNÝ, Martin, Rudolf BRÁZDIL, Petr DOBROVOLNÝ and Mirek TRNKA. Cereal harvest dates in the Czech Republic between 1501 and 2008 as a proxy for March–June temperature reconstruction. \textit{Climatic Change}. Dordrecht-Boston-London: Kluwer Academic Publishers, 2012, vol.~110, 3-4, p.~801-821. ISSN~0165-0009. Available from: https://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s10584-011-0075-z.

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