A 200-year climate record in Central Europe: implications for
agriculture

J 2011

A 200-year climate record in Central Europe: implications for agriculture

TRNKA, Mirek, Rudolf BRÁZDIL, Martin DUBROVSKÝ, Daniela SEMERÁDOVÁ, Petr ŠTĚPÁNEK et. al.

Basic information

Original name

A 200-year climate record in Central Europe: implications for agriculture

Authors

TRNKA, Mirek (203 Czech Republic, guarantor), Rudolf BRÁZDIL (203 Czech Republic, belonging to the institution), Martin DUBROVSKÝ (203 Czech Republic), Daniela SEMERÁDOVÁ (203 Czech Republic), Petr ŠTĚPÁNEK (203 Czech Republic), Petr DOBROVOLNÝ (203 Czech Republic, belonging to the institution), Martin MOŽNÝ (203 Czech Republic), Josef EITZINGER (40 Austria), Jan MÁLEK (203 Czech Republic), Herbert FORMAYER (40 Austria), Jan BALEK (203 Czech Republic) and Zdeněk ŽALUD (203 Czech Republic)

Edition

Agronomy for sustainable environment, 2011, 1774-0746

Other information

Language

English

Type of outcome

Článek v odborném periodiku

Field of Study

10500 1.5. Earth and related environmental sciences

Country of publisher

France

Confidentiality degree

není předmětem státního či obchodního tajemství

Impact factor

Impact factor: 3.330

RIV identification code

RIV/00216224:14310/11:00050647

Organization unit

Faculty of Science

DOI

http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s13593-011-0038-9

UT WoS

000295125700002

Keywords (in Czech)

agroklimatické rozdělení; rekonstrukce klimatu; variabilita klimatu

Keywords in English

agroclimatic zoning; climate reconstruction; climate variability

Abstract

V originále

The close links of climate, soil conditions, and agricultural productivity have been used in Central Europe for taxation purposes since the eighteenth century. Since agroclimatic conditions are variable, their fluctuations in the past centuries can provide a valuable context for analyzing changes expected in the coming decades. Here, historical agroclimatic conditions and future projections were constructed for key agricultural regions in Central Europe. The agroclimatic zoning method used in this study incorporates (1) the sum of temperatures for days with a mean temperature above 10 deg. C during the frost-free period, (2) the water deficit during the summer period from June to August, defined as the difference between precipitation and reference evapotranspiration, and (3) information regarding the suitability of soil and terrain for agriculture production based on twentieth century soil surveys. Changes in selected agroclimatological indices were also analyzed. To produce a weather series representing climate conditions between 1803 and 2008 over the study area, we used a stochastic weather generator trained on high-quality daily observations from 52 representative meteorological stations during the baseline period from 1961 to 1990. To estimate the extent of agroclimatic zones and the values of selected agroclimatic indices, the parameters of the weather generator were perturbed by the deviations of the temperature and precipitation means from the baseline using a long-term climate series from 1803 to 2008, from Brno. To generate a weather series representing the climate in 2050, we used an approach known as “pattern-scaling” in combination with outputs of three general circulation models. To our knowledge, this is the first study analyzing both continuous fluctuations in agroclimatic conditions over the past 200 years and expected shifts in the coming decades over Central Europe. In the study region, our results demonstrate that changes in climate factors since the second half of the twentieth century have favored the expansion of warmer and drier agroclimatic conditions in the most fertile areas, progressively endangering the sustainability of rain-fed agriculture. Conversely, the agroclimatic conditions of regions at higher elevations have improved over the past six decades, as witnessed by increases in maize production areas but also an influx of previously absent pests, e.g., the European corn borer. The length of the vegetation summer has been increasing and shows daily average temperature exceeding 15 deg. C. The mean number of days with snow cover has decreased by up to 30 days since a peak in the late nineteenth century. In lowland areas, the date of the last frost, with a 20-year return period, has moved closer to beginning of the season. Our results show that the predicted rate of change is unprecedented in available agroclimatic records; thus, adaptation cannot rely on past. Consequently, agricultural producers in the region will be forced to significantly bolster their adaptive capacity and develop flexible procedures that reflect the rapidly changing agroclimatic conditions.

Links

GA521/08/1682, research and development project

Name: Vliv klimatické variability a meteorologických extrémů na produkci vybraných plodin v letech 1801-2007

Investor: Czech Science Foundation, Effect of climate variability and meteorological extremes on the production of selected crops between 1801 and 2007

Citovat

TRNKA, Mirek, Rudolf BRÁZDIL, Martin DUBROVSKÝ, Daniela SEMERÁDOVÁ, Petr ŠTĚPÁNEK, Petr DOBROVOLNÝ, Martin MOŽNÝ, Josef EITZINGER, Jan MÁLEK, Herbert FORMAYER, Jan BALEK and Zdeněk ŽALUD. A 200-year climate record in Central Europe: implications for agriculture. Agronomy for sustainable environment. 2011, vol. 31, No 4, p. 631-641. ISSN 1774-0746. Available from: https://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s13593-011-0038-9.

@article{978336,
   author = {Trnka, Mirek and Brázdil, Rudolf and Dubrovský, Martin and Semerádová, Daniela and Štěpánek, Petr and Dobrovolný, Petr and Možný, Martin and Eitzinger, Josef and Málek, Jan and Formayer, Herbert and Balek, Jan and Žalud, Zdeněk},
   article_number = {4},
   doi = {http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s13593-011-0038-9},
   keywords = {agroclimatic zoning; climate reconstruction; climate variability},
   language = {eng},
   issn = {1774-0746},
   journal = {Agronomy for sustainable environment},
   title = {A 200-year climate record in Central Europe: implications for agriculture},
   volume = {31},
   year = {2011}
}

TY  - JOUR
ID  - 978336
AU  - Trnka, Mirek - Brázdil, Rudolf - Dubrovský, Martin - Semerádová, Daniela - Štěpánek, Petr - Dobrovolný, Petr - Možný, Martin - Eitzinger, Josef - Málek, Jan - Formayer, Herbert - Balek, Jan - Žalud, Zdeněk
PY  - 2011
TI  - A 200-year climate record in Central Europe: implications for agriculture
JF  - Agronomy for sustainable environment
VL  - 31
IS  - 4
SP  - 631-641
EP  - 631-641
SN  - 17740746
KW  - agroclimatic zoning
KW  - climate reconstruction
KW  - climate variability
N2  - The close links of climate, soil conditions, and agricultural productivity have been used in Central Europe for taxation purposes since the eighteenth century. Since agroclimatic conditions are variable, their fluctuations in the past centuries can provide a valuable context for analyzing changes expected in the coming decades. Here, historical agroclimatic conditions and future projections were constructed for key agricultural regions in Central Europe. The agroclimatic zoning method used in this study incorporates (1) the sum of temperatures for days with a mean temperature above 10 deg. C during the frost-free period, (2) the water deficit during the summer period from June to August, defined as the difference between precipitation and reference evapotranspiration, and (3) information regarding the suitability of soil and terrain for agriculture production based on twentieth century soil surveys. Changes in selected agroclimatological indices were also analyzed. To produce a weather series representing climate conditions between 1803 and 2008 over the study area, we used a stochastic weather generator trained on high-quality daily observations from 52 representative meteorological stations during the baseline period from 1961 to 1990. To estimate the extent of agroclimatic zones and the values of selected agroclimatic indices, the parameters of the weather generator were perturbed by the deviations of the temperature and precipitation means from the baseline using a long-term climate series from 1803 to 2008, from Brno. To generate a weather series representing the climate in 2050, we used an approach known as “pattern-scaling” in combination with outputs of three general circulation models. To our knowledge, this is the first study analyzing both continuous fluctuations in agroclimatic conditions over the past 200 years and expected shifts in the coming decades over Central Europe. In the study region, our results demonstrate that changes in climate factors since the second half of the twentieth century have favored the expansion of warmer and drier agroclimatic conditions in the most fertile areas, progressively endangering the sustainability of rain-fed agriculture. Conversely, the agroclimatic conditions of regions at higher elevations have improved over the past six decades, as witnessed by increases in maize production areas but also an influx of previously absent pests, e.g., the European corn borer. The length of the vegetation summer has been increasing and shows daily average temperature exceeding 15 deg. C. The mean number of days with snow cover has decreased by up to 30 days since a peak in the late nineteenth century. In lowland areas, the date of the last frost, with a 20-year return period, has moved closer to beginning of the season. Our results show that the predicted rate of change is unprecedented in available agroclimatic records; thus, adaptation cannot rely on past. Consequently, agricultural producers in the region will be forced to significantly bolster their adaptive capacity and develop flexible procedures that reflect the rapidly changing agroclimatic conditions.
ER  -

TRNKA, Mirek, Rudolf BRÁZDIL, Martin DUBROVSKÝ, Daniela SEMERÁDOVÁ, Petr ŠTĚPÁNEK, Petr DOBROVOLNÝ, Martin MOŽNÝ, Josef EITZINGER, Jan MÁLEK, Herbert FORMAYER, Jan BALEK and Zdeněk ŽALUD. A 200-year climate record in Central Europe: implications for agriculture. \textit{Agronomy for sustainable environment}. 2011, vol.~31, No~4, p.~631-641. ISSN~1774-0746. Available from: https://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s13593-011-0038-9.

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