BSSn4402 Sec. and strategic perspectives of CR

Faculty of Social Studies
Autumn 2024
Extent and Intensity
1/1/0. 8 credit(s). Type of Completion: zk (examination).
Taught in person.
Mgr. Josef Kraus, Ph.D. (lecturer)
doc. Ing. Josef Procházka, Ph.D. (lecturer)
Mgr. Michael Myklín (seminar tutor)
Guaranteed by
doc. Ing. Josef Procházka, Ph.D.
Department of Political Science – Faculty of Social Studies
Contact Person: Mgr. Lucie Pospíšilová
Supplier department: Division of Security and Strategic Studies – Department of Political Science – Faculty of Social Studies
No pre-requisite demanded.
Course Enrolment Limitations
The course is only offered to the students of the study fields the course is directly associated with.
fields of study / plans the course is directly associated with
Course objectives
The main goal of the course is to deepen student`s knowledge and ability to use prediction methods in analysis with the main focus on intelligence studies in the context of Czech, regional and global security.
Learning outcomes
The aim of the course is to acquire the ability to predict the security-strategic perspectives of the Czech Republic in the context of regional and global development on the basis of knowledge and application of prediction methods and structured analytical techniques from the field of "intelligence studies". The course will present the existing research in this field. The students will practice the selected prediction methods and techniques in seminar groups and will prepare scenarios of strategic development of the selected security issue.
  • Introduction to security perspective of the CR Introduction to security predictions Team A/ Team B method Brainstorming method Strategic Foresight method Wheel of Fortune method Red Team analysis Predictive scenarios
    required literature
  • Clark, R. M. (2004): Intelligence analysis. A target-centric approach. CQ Press, Washington. 403 s.
  • Potůček, M. et al (2006): Manuál prognostických metod. Praha: SLON.
  • Potůček, M. (2011:) Poznávání budoucnosti jako výzva. 1. vyd. Praha: Karolinum, 153 s.. US Goverment (2009): A Tradecraft Primer: Structured Analytic Techniques for Improving Intelligence Analysis.
  • Friedman, G. (2009): The next 100 years: A forecast for the 21st century. London: Allison & Busby
  • Mareš, M. (2014): Vybrané predikce terorismu. In Svatoš, R., Kříha, J. (eds.): II. kriminologické dny. Sborník příspěvků z vědecké konference II. kriminologické dny v Českých Budějovicích dne 27. až 28. ledna 2014. České Budějovice: Česká kriminologická
  • Zelinka, P. (2010): Prediktivní metodologie ve zpravodajských službách. Vojenské rozhledy, Roč. 19, č. 1, pp. 29-39
Teaching methods
Lectures, Seminary, Group projects and presentations.
Assessment methods
Final test, plus student group presentations and papers.
Language of instruction
Further comments (probably available only in Czech)
The course is taught annually.
The course is taught: every week.
Teacher's information
The course is taught through lectures and seminars, exclusively in the form of attendance. For this reason, student attendance at seminars is considered compulsory and the instructor will require an excuse slip established in the IS in case of absence.
The course is also listed under the following terms Autumn 2019, Autumn 2020, Autumn 2021, Autumn 2022, Autumn 2023.
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