Sounding-derived parameters and their ability to forecast
individual severe weather threats for the region of central
Europe.

a 2013

Sounding-derived parameters and their ability to forecast individual severe weather threats for the region of central Europe.

PÚČIK, Tomáš; Miroslav KOLÁŘ and David RÝVA

Basic information

Original name

Sounding-derived parameters and their ability to forecast individual severe weather threats for the region of central Europe.

Authors

PÚČIK, Tomáš; Miroslav KOLÁŘ and David RÝVA

Edition

7th European Conference on Severe Storms, 2013

Other information

Language

English

Type of outcome

Conference abstract

Field of Study

10500 1.5. Earth and related environmental sciences

Country of publisher

Finland

Confidentiality degree

is not subject to a state or trade secret

References:

URL

Organization unit

Faculty of Science

Keywords in English

sounding severe weather forecasting parameter buoyancy shear

Abstract

In the original language

Study is devoted to the analysis of more than 35 environmental parameters (indices) and their ability to discriminate between the intensity categories of individual severe weather types (hail, wind gusts, excessive precipitation). Intensity categories were delineated as non-severe, severe and extremely severe while severity for each of the events was assigned using the ESWD data. Environmental parameters (indices) have been processed from 1962 proximity soundings acquired for 4 years of thunderstorm activity (2008-2011) in the region of central Europe. Ability of parameters to discriminate between the intensity categories has been determined via non-parametric statistical tests (using p-values and test score values). One of the primary findings is that the discriminatory ability of a certain parameter is often very different for individual severe weather types, another being that even parameters with the best scores exhibit at least some overlap between the values of individual intensity categories. Statistical results showed that the best discriminatory skills were found for the hail events, worst for the excessive precipitation. Moreover, we found that it is easier to discriminate non-severe and severe events than severe and extremely severe ones. Severe hail environments were well predicted using the buoyancy-related parameters, while severe wind gust environments were more sensitive to the vertical wind shear. Simple combinations of buoyancy and wind shear proved as the best predictors for both severe weather types. In case of the excessive precipitation, results were different with a tendency for severe events to occur in the environments favoring high precipitation rates / efficiency. Also, tornado environments were examined with the finding that even in the favorable range of parameters, non-tornadic cases dominate. Generally speaking, primary goal is an assessment of the severe weather predictability using simple, sounding derived parameters and the outline of main limitations that stem from using them, especially regarding the parameter “threshold” values.

Links

MUNI/A/0902/2012, interní kód MU

Name: Globální environmentální změny v krajinné sféře Země a jejich dopady (Acronym: GlobE)

Investor: Masaryk University, Category A

Cite

PÚČIK, Tomáš; Miroslav KOLÁŘ and David RÝVA. Sounding-derived parameters and their ability to forecast individual severe weather threats for the region of central Europe. In 7th European Conference on Severe Storms. 2013.

@proceedings{1110886,
   author = {Púčik, Tomáš and Kolář, Miroslav and Rýva, David},
   booktitle = {7th European Conference on Severe Storms},
   keywords = {sounding severe weather forecasting parameter buoyancy shear},
   language = {eng},
   title = {Sounding-derived parameters and their ability to forecast individual severe weather threats for the region of central Europe.},
   url = {http://www.essl.org/ECSS/2013/programme/abstracts/70.pdf},
   year = {2013}
}

TY  - CONF
ID  - 1110886
AU  - Púčik, Tomáš - Kolář, Miroslav - Rýva, David
PY  - 2013
TI  - Sounding-derived parameters and their ability to forecast individual severe weather threats for the region of central Europe.
KW  - sounding severe weather forecasting parameter buoyancy shear
UR  - http://www.essl.org/ECSS/2013/programme/abstracts/70.pdf
L2  - http://www.essl.org/ECSS/2013/programme/abstracts/70.pdf
N2  - Study is devoted to the analysis of more than 35 environmental parameters (indices) and their ability to discriminate between the intensity categories of individual severe weather types (hail, wind gusts, excessive precipitation). Intensity categories were delineated as non-severe, severe and extremely severe while severity for each of the events was assigned using the ESWD data. Environmental parameters (indices) have been processed from 1962 proximity soundings acquired for 4 years of thunderstorm activity (2008-2011) in the region of central Europe. Ability of parameters to discriminate between the intensity categories has been determined via non-parametric statistical tests (using p-values and test score values). One of the primary findings is that the discriminatory ability of a certain parameter is often very different for individual severe weather types, another being that even parameters with the best scores exhibit at least some overlap between the values of individual intensity categories. Statistical results showed that the best discriminatory skills were found for the hail events, worst for the excessive precipitation. Moreover, we found that it is easier to discriminate non-severe and severe events than severe and extremely severe ones. Severe hail environments were well predicted using the buoyancy-related parameters, while severe wind gust environments were more sensitive to the vertical wind shear. Simple combinations of buoyancy and wind shear proved as the best predictors for both severe weather types. In case of the excessive precipitation, results were different with a tendency for severe events to occur in the environments favoring high precipitation rates / efficiency. Also, tornado environments were examined with the finding that even in the favorable range of parameters, non-tornadic cases dominate. Generally speaking, primary goal is an assessment of the severe weather predictability using simple, sounding derived parameters and the outline of main limitations that stem from using them, especially regarding the parameter “threshold” values.
ER  -

PÚČIK, Tomáš; Miroslav KOLÁŘ and David RÝVA. Sounding-derived parameters and their ability to forecast individual severe weather threats for the region of central Europe. In \textit{7th European Conference on Severe Storms}. 2013.

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