The year-long unprecedented European heat and drought of 1540 –
a worst case

J 2014

The year-long unprecedented European heat and drought of 1540 – a worst case

WETTER, Oliver, Christian PFISTER, Johannes P. WERNER, Eduardo ZORITA, Sebastian WAGNER et. al.

Základní údaje

Originální název

The year-long unprecedented European heat and drought of 1540 – a worst case

Autoři

WETTER, Oliver (756 Švýcarsko, garant), Christian PFISTER (756 Švýcarsko), Johannes P. WERNER (276 Německo), Eduardo ZORITA (276 Německo), Sebastian WAGNER (276 Německo), Sonia I. SENEVIRATNE (756 Švýcarsko), Jürgen HERGET (276 Německo), Uwe GRÜNEWALD (276 Německo), Jürg LUTERBACHER (276 Německo), Maria-Joao ALCOFORADO (620 Portugalsko), Mariano BARRIENDOS (724 Španělsko), Ursula BIEBER (40 Rakousko), Rudolf BRÁZDIL (203 Česká republika, domácí), Karl H. BURMEISTER (276 Německo), Chantal CAMENISCH (756 Švýcarsko), Antonio CONTINO (380 Itálie), Petr DOBROVOLNÝ (203 Česká republika, domácí), Rüdiger GLASER (276 Německo), Iso HIMMELSBACH (276 Německo), Andrea KISS (40 Rakousko), Oldřich KOTYZA (203 Česká republika), Thomas LABBÉ (276 Německo), Danuta LIMANÓWKA (616 Polsko), Laurent LITZENBURGER (250 Francie), Øyvind NORDLI (578 Norsko), Kathleen PRIBYL (826 Velká Británie a Severní Irsko), Dag RETSÖ (752 Švédsko), Dirk RIEMANN (276 Německo), Christian ROHR (756 Švýcarsko), Werner SIEGFRIED (756 Švýcarsko), Johan SÖDERBERG (752 Švédsko) a Jean-Laurent SPRING (756 Švýcarsko)

Vydání

Climatic Change, 2014, 0165-0009

Další údaje

Jazyk

angličtina

Typ výsledku

Článek v odborném periodiku

Obor

10500 1.5. Earth and related environmental sciences

Stát vydavatele

Nizozemské království

Utajení

není předmětem státního či obchodního tajemství

Impakt faktor

Impact factor: 3.430

Kód RIV

RIV/00216224:14310/14:00073833

Organizační jednotka

Přírodovědecká fakulta

DOI

http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s10584-014-1184-2

UT WoS

000339970700005

Klíčová slova anglicky

documentary evidence; meteorological drought ; hydrological drought; agricultural drought; socio-economic drought; megadrought; precipitation; Europe

Štítky

AKR, rivok

Změněno: 11. 4. 2015 22:37, Ing. Andrea Mikešková

Anotace

V originále

The heat waves of 2003 in Western Europe and 2010 in Russia, commonly labelled as rare climatic anomalies outside of previous experience, are often taken as harbingers of more frequent extremes in the global warming-influenced future. However, a recent reconstruction of spring–summer temperatures for WE resulted in the likelihood of significantly higher temperatures in 1540. In order to check the plausibility of this result we investigated the severity of the 1540 drought by putting forward the argument of the known soil desiccation-temperature feedback. Based on more than 300 first-hand documentary weather report sources originating from an area of 2 to 3 million km2, we show that Europe was affected by an unprecedented 11-month-long Megadrought. The estimated number of precipitation days and precipitation amount for Central and Western Europe in 1540 is significantly lower than the 100-year minima of the instrumental measurement period for spring, summer and autumn. This result is supported by independent documentary evidence about extremely low river flows and Europe-wide wild-, forest- and settlement fires. We found that an event of this severity cannot be simulated by state-of-the-art climate models.

Návaznosti

GA13-04291S, projekt VaV

Název: Rekonstrukce hydro-klimatických podmínek jara a léta posledního milénia v České republice na základě dubové standardní chronologie

Investor: Grantová agentura ČR, Rekonstrukce hydro-klimatických podmínek jara a léta posledního milénia v České republice na základě šířky letokruhů dubu

GA13-19831S, projekt VaV

Název: Hydrometeorologické extrémy na jižní Moravě odvozené z dokumentárních pramenů

Investor: Grantová agentura ČR, Hydrometeorologické extrémy na jižní Moravě odvozené z dokumentárních pramenů

Citovat

WETTER, Oliver, Christian PFISTER, Johannes P. WERNER, Eduardo ZORITA, Sebastian WAGNER, Sonia I. SENEVIRATNE, Jürgen HERGET, Uwe GRÜNEWALD, Jürg LUTERBACHER, Maria-Joao ALCOFORADO, Mariano BARRIENDOS, Ursula BIEBER, Rudolf BRÁZDIL, Karl H. BURMEISTER, Chantal CAMENISCH, Antonio CONTINO, Petr DOBROVOLNÝ, Rüdiger GLASER, Iso HIMMELSBACH, Andrea KISS, Oldřich KOTYZA, Thomas LABBÉ, Danuta LIMANÓWKA, Laurent LITZENBURGER, Øyvind NORDLI, Kathleen PRIBYL, Dag RETSÖ, Dirk RIEMANN, Christian ROHR, Werner SIEGFRIED, Johan SÖDERBERG a Jean-Laurent SPRING. The year-long unprecedented European heat and drought of 1540 – a worst case. Climatic Change. 2014, roč. 125, 3-4, s. 349-363. ISSN 0165-0009. Dostupné z: https://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s10584-014-1184-2.

@article{1197047,
   author = {Wetter, Oliver and Pfister, Christian and Werner, Johannes P. and Zorita, Eduardo and Wagner, Sebastian and Seneviratne, Sonia I. and Herget, Jürgen and Grünewald, Uwe and Luterbacher, Jürg and Alcoforado, MariaandJoao and Barriendos, Mariano and Bieber, Ursula and Brázdil, Rudolf and Burmeister, Karl H. and Camenisch, Chantal and Contino, Antonio and Dobrovolný, Petr and Glaser, Rüdiger and Himmelsbach, Iso and Kiss, Andrea and Kotyza, Oldřich and Labbé, Thomas and Limanówka, Danuta and Litzenburger, Laurent and Nordli, Øyvind and Pribyl, Kathleen and Retsö, Dag and Riemann, Dirk and Rohr, Christian and Siegfried, Werner and Söderberg, Johan and Spring, JeanandLaurent},
   article_number = {3-4},
   doi = {http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s10584-014-1184-2},
   keywords = {documentary evidence; meteorological drought ; hydrological drought; agricultural drought; socio-economic drought; megadrought; precipitation; Europe},
   language = {eng},
   issn = {0165-0009},
   journal = {Climatic Change},
   title = {The year-long unprecedented European heat and drought of 1540 – a worst case},
   volume = {125},
   year = {2014}
}

TY  - JOUR
ID  - 1197047
AU  - Wetter, Oliver - Pfister, Christian - Werner, Johannes P. - Zorita, Eduardo - Wagner, Sebastian - Seneviratne, Sonia I. - Herget, Jürgen - Grünewald, Uwe - Luterbacher, Jürg - Alcoforado, Maria-Joao - Barriendos, Mariano - Bieber, Ursula - Brázdil, Rudolf - Burmeister, Karl H. - Camenisch, Chantal - Contino, Antonio - Dobrovolný, Petr - Glaser, Rüdiger - Himmelsbach, Iso - Kiss, Andrea - Kotyza, Oldřich - Labbé, Thomas - Limanówka, Danuta - Litzenburger, Laurent - Nordli, Øyvind - Pribyl, Kathleen - Retsö, Dag - Riemann, Dirk - Rohr, Christian - Siegfried, Werner - Söderberg, Johan - Spring, Jean-Laurent
PY  - 2014
TI  - The year-long unprecedented European heat and drought of 1540 – a worst case
JF  - Climatic Change
VL  - 125
IS  - 3-4
SP  - 349-363
EP  - 349-363
SN  - 01650009
KW  - documentary evidence
KW  - meteorological drought
KW  - hydrological drought
KW  - agricultural drought
KW  - socio-economic drought
KW  - megadrought
KW  - precipitation
KW  - Europe
N2  - The heat waves of 2003 in Western Europe and 2010 in Russia, commonly labelled as rare climatic anomalies outside of previous experience, are often taken as harbingers of more frequent extremes in the global warming-influenced future. However, a recent reconstruction of spring–summer temperatures for WE resulted in the likelihood of significantly higher temperatures in 1540. In order to check the plausibility of this result we investigated the severity of the 1540 drought by putting forward the argument of the known soil desiccation-temperature feedback. Based on more than 300 first-hand documentary weather report sources originating from an area of 2 to 3 million km2, we show that Europe was affected by an unprecedented 11-month-long Megadrought. The estimated number of precipitation days and precipitation amount for Central and Western Europe in 1540 is significantly lower than the 100-year minima of the instrumental measurement period for spring, summer and autumn. This result is supported by independent documentary evidence about extremely low river flows and Europe-wide wild-, forest- and settlement fires. We found that an event of this severity cannot be simulated by state-of-the-art climate models.
ER  -

WETTER, Oliver, Christian PFISTER, Johannes P. WERNER, Eduardo ZORITA, Sebastian WAGNER, Sonia I. SENEVIRATNE, Jürgen HERGET, Uwe GRÜNEWALD, Jürg LUTERBACHER, Maria-Joao ALCOFORADO, Mariano BARRIENDOS, Ursula BIEBER, Rudolf BRÁZDIL, Karl H. BURMEISTER, Chantal CAMENISCH, Antonio CONTINO, Petr DOBROVOLNÝ, Rüdiger GLASER, Iso HIMMELSBACH, Andrea KISS, Oldřich KOTYZA, Thomas LABBÉ, Danuta LIMANÓWKA, Laurent LITZENBURGER, Øyvind NORDLI, Kathleen PRIBYL, Dag RETSÖ, Dirk RIEMANN, Christian ROHR, Werner SIEGFRIED, Johan SÖDERBERG a Jean-Laurent SPRING. The year-long unprecedented European heat and drought of 1540 – a worst case. \textit{Climatic Change}. 2014, roč.~125, 3-4, s.~349-363. ISSN~0165-0009. Dostupné z: https://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s10584-014-1184-2.

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