European summer temperatures since Roman times

J 2016

European summer temperatures since Roman times

LUTERBACHER, Juerg, J.P. WERNER, J.E. SMERDON, L. FERNANDEZ-DONADO, F.J. GONZALEZ-ROUCO et. al.

Základní údaje

Originální název

European summer temperatures since Roman times

Autoři

LUTERBACHER, Juerg (756 Švýcarsko, garant), J.P. WERNER (276 Německo), J.E. SMERDON (840 Spojené státy), L. FERNANDEZ-DONADO (724 Španělsko), F.J. GONZALEZ-ROUCO (724 Španělsko), D. BARRIOPEDRO (724 Španělsko), F.C. LJUNGQVIST (752 Švédsko), Ulf BÜNTGEN (756 Švýcarsko), E. ZORITA (724 Španělsko), S. WAGNER (276 Německo), J. ESPER (276 Německo), D. MCCARROLL (826 Velká Británie a Severní Irsko), A. TORETI (380 Itálie), D. FRANK (756 Švýcarsko), J.H. JUNGCLAUS (276 Německo), M. BARRIENDOS (724 Španělsko), C. BERTOLIN (380 Itálie), O. BOTHE (276 Německo), Rudolf BRÁZDIL (203 Česká republika, domácí), D. CAMUFFO (380 Itálie), Petr DOBROVOLNÝ (203 Česká republika, domácí), M. GAGEN (826 Velká Británie a Severní Irsko), E. GARICA-BUSTAMANTE (724 Španělsko), Q. GE (156 Čína), J.J. GOMEZ-NAVARRO (724 Španělsko), J. GUIOT (250 Francie), Z. HAO (156 Čína), G.C. HEGERL (826 Velká Británie a Severní Irsko), K. HOLMGREN (752 Švédsko), V.V. KLIMENKO (643 Rusko), J. MARTIN-CHIVELET (724 Španělsko), Christian PFISTER (756 Švýcarsko), N. ROBERTS (826 Velká Británie a Severní Irsko), A. SCHINDLER (756 Švýcarsko), A. SCHURER (826 Velká Británie a Severní Irsko), O. SOLOMINA (643 Rusko), L. VON GUNTEN (756 Švýcarsko), E. WAHL (840 Spojené státy), H. WANNER (756 Švýcarsko), O. WETTER (756 Švýcarsko), E. XOPLAKI (300 Řecko), N. YUAN (156 Čína), D. ZANCHETTIN (380 Itálie), H. ZHANG (156 Čína) a C. ZEREFOS (300 Řecko)

Vydání

Environmental Research Letters, BRISTOL, IOP PUBLISHING LTD, 2016, 1748-9326

Další údaje

Jazyk

angličtina

Typ výsledku

Článek v odborném periodiku

Obor

10500 1.5. Earth and related environmental sciences

Stát vydavatele

Velká Británie a Severní Irsko

Utajení

není předmětem státního či obchodního tajemství

Impakt faktor

Impact factor: 4.404

Kód RIV

RIV/00216224:14310/16:00087868

Organizační jednotka

Přírodovědecká fakulta

DOI

http://dx.doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/11/2/024001

UT WoS

000371488300003

Klíčová slova anglicky

Common Era; heat waves; paleoclimatology; Bayesian hierarchical modelling; European summer temperature reconstruction; ensemble of climate model simulations; Medieval Climate Anomaly

Štítky

AKR, rivok

Příznaky

Mezinárodní význam, Recenzováno

Změněno: 5. 4. 2017 18:07, Ing. Andrea Mikešková

Anotace

V originále

The spatial context is criticalwhen assessing present-day climate anomalies, attributing them to potential forcings and making statements regarding their frequency and severity in a long-term perspective. Recent international initiatives have expanded the number of high-quality proxy-records and developed new statistical reconstruction methods. These advances allow more rigorous regional past temperature reconstructions and, in turn, the possibility of evaluating climate models on policy-relevant, spatiotemporal scales. Here we provide a new proxy-based, annually-resolved, spatial reconstruction of the European summer (June-August) temperature fields back to 755 CE based on Bayesian hierarchical modelling (BHM), together with estimates of the European mean temperature variation since 138 BCE based on BHM and composite-plus-scaling (CPS). Our reconstructions compare well with independent instrumental and proxy-based temperature estimates, but suggest a larger amplitude in summer temperature variability than previously reported. Both CPS and BHM reconstructions indicate that the mean 20th century European summer temperature was not significantly different from some earlier centuries, including the 1st, 2nd, 8th and 10th centuries CE. The 1st century (in BHM also the 10th century) may even have been slightly warmer than the 20th century, but the difference is not statistically significant. Comparing each 50 yr period with the 1951-2000 period reveals a similar pattern. Recent summers, however, have been unusually warm in the context of the last two millennia and there are no 30 yr periods in either reconstruction that exceed the mean average European summer temperature of the last 3 decades (1986-2015 CE). A comparison with an ensemble of climate model simulations suggests that the reconstructed European summer temperature variability over the period 850-2000 CE reflects changes in both internal variability and external forcing on multi-decadal time-scales. For pan-European temperatures we find slightly better agreement between the reconstruction and the model simulations with high-end estimates for total solar irradiance. Temperature differences between the medieval period, the recent period and the Little Ice Age are larger in the reconstructions than the simulations. This may indicate inflated variability of the reconstructions, a lack of sensitivity and processes to changes in external forcing on the simulated European climate and/or an underestimation of internal variability on centennial and longer time scales.

Návaznosti

GA13-04291S, projekt VaV

Název: Rekonstrukce hydro-klimatických podmínek jara a léta posledního milénia v České republice na základě dubové standardní chronologie

Investor: Grantová agentura ČR, Rekonstrukce hydro-klimatických podmínek jara a léta posledního milénia v České republice na základě šířky letokruhů dubu

Citovat

LUTERBACHER, Juerg, J.P. WERNER, J.E. SMERDON, L. FERNANDEZ-DONADO, F.J. GONZALEZ-ROUCO, D. BARRIOPEDRO, F.C. LJUNGQVIST, Ulf BÜNTGEN, E. ZORITA, S. WAGNER, J. ESPER, D. MCCARROLL, A. TORETI, D. FRANK, J.H. JUNGCLAUS, M. BARRIENDOS, C. BERTOLIN, O. BOTHE, Rudolf BRÁZDIL, D. CAMUFFO, Petr DOBROVOLNÝ, M. GAGEN, E. GARICA-BUSTAMANTE, Q. GE, J.J. GOMEZ-NAVARRO, J. GUIOT, Z. HAO, G.C. HEGERL, K. HOLMGREN, V.V. KLIMENKO, J. MARTIN-CHIVELET, Christian PFISTER, N. ROBERTS, A. SCHINDLER, A. SCHURER, O. SOLOMINA, L. VON GUNTEN, E. WAHL, H. WANNER, O. WETTER, E. XOPLAKI, N. YUAN, D. ZANCHETTIN, H. ZHANG a C. ZEREFOS. European summer temperatures since Roman times. Environmental Research Letters. BRISTOL: IOP PUBLISHING LTD, 2016, roč. 11, č. 2, s. "nestrankovano", 12 s. ISSN 1748-9326. Dostupné z: https://dx.doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/11/2/024001.

@article{1341254,
   author = {Luterbacher, Juerg and Werner, J.P. and Smerdon, J.E. and FernandezandDonado, L. and GonzalezandRouco, F.J. and Barriopedro, D. and Ljungqvist, F.C. and Büntgen, Ulf and Zorita, E. and Wagner, S. and Esper, J. and McCarroll, D. and Toreti, A. and Frank, D. and Jungclaus, J.H. and Barriendos, M. and Bertolin, C. and Bothe, O. and Brázdil, Rudolf and Camuffo, D. and Dobrovolný, Petr and Gagen, M. and GaricaandBustamante, E. and Ge, Q. and GomezandNavarro, J.J. and Guiot, J. and Hao, Z. and Hegerl, G.C. and Holmgren, K. and Klimenko, V.V. and MartinandChivelet, J. and Pfister, Christian and Roberts, N. and Schindler, A. and Schurer, A. and Solomina, O. and von Gunten, L. and Wahl, E. and Wanner, H. and Wetter, O. and Xoplaki, E. and Yuan, N. and Zanchettin, D. and Zhang, H. and Zerefos, C.},
   article_location = {BRISTOL},
   article_number = {2},
   doi = {http://dx.doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/11/2/024001},
   keywords = {Common Era; heat waves; paleoclimatology; Bayesian hierarchical modelling; European summer temperature reconstruction; ensemble of climate model simulations; Medieval Climate Anomaly},
   language = {eng},
   issn = {1748-9326},
   journal = {Environmental Research Letters},
   title = {European summer temperatures since Roman times},
   volume = {11},
   year = {2016}
}

TY  - JOUR
ID  - 1341254
AU  - Luterbacher, Juerg - Werner, J.P. - Smerdon, J.E. - Fernandez-Donado, L. - Gonzalez-Rouco, F.J. - Barriopedro, D. - Ljungqvist, F.C. - Büntgen, Ulf - Zorita, E. - Wagner, S. - Esper, J. - McCarroll, D. - Toreti, A. - Frank, D. - Jungclaus, J.H. - Barriendos, M. - Bertolin, C. - Bothe, O. - Brázdil, Rudolf - Camuffo, D. - Dobrovolný, Petr - Gagen, M. - Garica-Bustamante, E. - Ge, Q. - Gomez-Navarro, J.J. - Guiot, J. - Hao, Z. - Hegerl, G.C. - Holmgren, K. - Klimenko, V.V. - Martin-Chivelet, J. - Pfister, Christian - Roberts, N. - Schindler, A. - Schurer, A. - Solomina, O. - von Gunten, L. - Wahl, E. - Wanner, H. - Wetter, O. - Xoplaki, E. - Yuan, N. - Zanchettin, D. - Zhang, H. - Zerefos, C.
PY  - 2016
TI  - European summer temperatures since Roman times
JF  - Environmental Research Letters
VL  - 11
IS  - 2
SP  - "nestrankovano"
EP  - "nestrankovano"
PB  - IOP PUBLISHING LTD
SN  - 17489326
KW  - Common Era
KW  - heat waves
KW  - paleoclimatology
KW  - Bayesian hierarchical modelling
KW  - European summer temperature reconstruction
KW  - ensemble of climate model simulations
KW  - Medieval Climate Anomaly
N2  - The spatial context is criticalwhen assessing present-day climate anomalies, attributing them to potential forcings and making statements regarding their frequency and severity in a long-term perspective. Recent international initiatives have expanded the number of high-quality proxy-records and developed new statistical reconstruction methods. These advances allow more rigorous regional past temperature reconstructions and, in turn, the possibility of evaluating climate models on policy-relevant, spatiotemporal scales. Here we provide a new proxy-based, annually-resolved, spatial reconstruction of the European summer (June-August) temperature fields back to 755 CE based on Bayesian hierarchical modelling (BHM), together with estimates of the European mean temperature variation since 138 BCE based on BHM and composite-plus-scaling (CPS). Our reconstructions compare well with independent instrumental and proxy-based temperature estimates, but suggest a larger amplitude in summer temperature variability than previously reported. Both CPS and BHM reconstructions indicate that the mean 20th century European summer temperature was not significantly different from some earlier centuries, including the 1st, 2nd, 8th and 10th centuries CE. The 1st century (in BHM also the 10th century) may even have been slightly warmer than the 20th century, but the difference is not statistically significant. Comparing each 50 yr period with the 1951-2000 period reveals a similar pattern. Recent summers, however, have been unusually warm in the context of the last two millennia and there are no 30 yr periods in either reconstruction that exceed the mean average European summer temperature of the last 3 decades (1986-2015 CE). A comparison with an ensemble of climate model simulations suggests that the reconstructed European summer temperature variability over the period 850-2000 CE reflects changes in both internal variability and external forcing on multi-decadal time-scales. For pan-European temperatures we find slightly better agreement between the reconstruction and the model simulations with high-end estimates for total solar irradiance. Temperature differences between the medieval period, the recent period and the Little Ice Age are larger in the reconstructions than the simulations. This may indicate inflated variability of the reconstructions, a lack of sensitivity and processes to changes in external forcing on the simulated European climate and/or an underestimation of internal variability on centennial and longer time scales.
ER  -

LUTERBACHER, Juerg, J.P. WERNER, J.E. SMERDON, L. FERNANDEZ-DONADO, F.J. GONZALEZ-ROUCO, D. BARRIOPEDRO, F.C. LJUNGQVIST, Ulf BÜNTGEN, E. ZORITA, S. WAGNER, J. ESPER, D. MCCARROLL, A. TORETI, D. FRANK, J.H. JUNGCLAUS, M. BARRIENDOS, C. BERTOLIN, O. BOTHE, Rudolf BRÁZDIL, D. CAMUFFO, Petr DOBROVOLNÝ, M. GAGEN, E. GARICA-BUSTAMANTE, Q. GE, J.J. GOMEZ-NAVARRO, J. GUIOT, Z. HAO, G.C. HEGERL, K. HOLMGREN, V.V. KLIMENKO, J. MARTIN-CHIVELET, Christian PFISTER, N. ROBERTS, A. SCHINDLER, A. SCHURER, O. SOLOMINA, L. VON GUNTEN, E. WAHL, H. WANNER, O. WETTER, E. XOPLAKI, N. YUAN, D. ZANCHETTIN, H. ZHANG a C. ZEREFOS. European summer temperatures since Roman times. \textit{Environmental Research Letters}. BRISTOL: IOP PUBLISHING LTD, 2016, roč.~11, č.~2, s.~''nestrankovano'', 12 s. ISSN~1748-9326. Dostupné z: https://dx.doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/11/2/024001.

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