2016
The impact of Polish unconventional production on the regional distribution of natural gas supply and transit: A scenario analysis
OSIČKA, Jan, Petr OCELÍK a Břetislav DANČÁKZákladní údaje
Originální název
The impact of Polish unconventional production on the regional distribution of natural gas supply and transit: A scenario analysis
Autoři
OSIČKA, Jan (203 Česká republika, garant, domácí), Petr OCELÍK (203 Česká republika, domácí) a Břetislav DANČÁK (203 Česká republika, domácí)
Vydání
Energy Strategy Reviews, 2016, 2211-467X
Další údaje
Jazyk
angličtina
Typ výsledku
Článek v odborném periodiku
Obor
50601 Political science
Stát vydavatele
Nizozemské království
Utajení
není předmětem státního či obchodního tajemství
Odkazy
Impakt faktor
Impact factor: 1.891
Kód RIV
RIV/00216224:14230/16:00089911
Organizační jednotka
Fakulta sociálních studií
UT WoS
000378853000001
Klíčová slova anglicky
Natural gas; Network flow model; Unconventional gas; Central and Eastern Europe; Scenario analysis
Změněno: 26. 4. 2017 13:57, Ing. Alena Raisová
Anotace
V originále
We use the MEOS model to assess the possible impact of Polish unconventional gas (UNG) production on natural gas flows through the Czech Republic, Hungary, Poland and Slovakia. MEOS is a network flow optimization model designed to solve the minimum-cost flow problem in a network that consists of nodes (production areas, consumption areas, transshipment junctions) and arcs (pipelines). The article postulates and analyzes five distinct scenarios combining various levels of UNG production with different settings of regional infrastructure. The MEOS simulations reveal the critical importance of currently missing cross-border links between the countries. Polish UNG production is therefore likely to trigger new infrastructure projects and foster the ones that are currently under consideration. The biggest changes in natural gas supply can be expected in Slovakia and Hungary, as these markets do not have direct access to German hubs. Similarly, it is reasonable to expect Polish UNG to be traded at the Austrian CEGH hub, which will further catalyze the transformation of the regional market. It is further argued that in addition to sufficient infrastructure, UNG production will require liberalization of the Polish domestic market and a certain degree of integration of regional markets, effectively changing the nature of natural gas trading in the region, which is still dominated by Russian long-term, take-or-pay contracts.
Návaznosti
MUNI/A/1113/2015, interní kód MU |
| ||
MUNI/M/0081/2013, interní kód MU |
|