Drought trends over part of Central Europe between 1961 and
2014

J 2016

Drought trends over part of Central Europe between 1961 and 2014

TRNKA, Miroslav, Jan BALEK, Petr ŠTĚPÁNEK, Pavel ZAHRADNÍČEK, Martin MOŽNÝ et. al.

Základní údaje

Originální název

Drought trends over part of Central Europe between 1961 and 2014

Autoři

TRNKA, Miroslav (203 Česká republika), Jan BALEK (203 Česká republika), Petr ŠTĚPÁNEK (203 Česká republika), Pavel ZAHRADNÍČEK (203 Česká republika), Martin MOŽNÝ (203 Česká republika), Josef EITZINGER (40 Rakousko), Zdeněk ŽALUD (203 Česká republika), Herbert FORMAYER (40 Rakousko), Maroš TURŇA (703 Slovensko), Pavol NEJEDLÍK (703 Slovensko), Daniela SEMERÁDOVÁ (203 Česká republika), Petr HLAVINKA (203 Česká republika) a Rudolf BRÁZDIL (203 Česká republika, garant, domácí)

Vydání

Climate Research, 2016, 0936-577X

Další údaje

Jazyk

angličtina

Typ výsledku

Článek v odborném periodiku

Obor

10500 1.5. Earth and related environmental sciences

Stát vydavatele

Německo

Utajení

není předmětem státního či obchodního tajemství

Impakt faktor

Impact factor: 1.578

Kód RIV

RIV/00216224:14310/16:00088628

Organizační jednotka

Přírodovědecká fakulta

DOI

http://dx.doi.org/10.3354/cr01420

UT WoS

000388194400005

Klíčová slova anglicky

SPI; PDSI; SPEI; Z-index; ICDI; drought climatology; climate trends

Štítky

AKR, rivok

Změněno: 5. 4. 2017 10:00, Ing. Andrea Mikešková

Anotace

V originále

An increase in drought frequency, duration and severity is expected for the Central European region as a direct consequence of climate change. This will have profound effects on a number of key sectors (e.g. agriculture, forestry, energy production and tourism) and also affect water resources, biodiversity and the landscape as a whole. However, global circulation models significantly differ in their projections for Central Europe with respect to the magnitude and timing of these changes. Therefore, analysis of changes in drought characteristics during the last 54 yr in relation to prevailing climate trends might significantly enhance our understanding of present and future drought risks. This study is based on a set of drought indices, including the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI), the Palmer Drought Severity Index (PDSI), the Palmer Zindex (Z-index) and the Standardized Precipitation-Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI), in their most advanced formulations. The time series of the drought indices were calculated for 411 climatological stations across Austria (excluding the Alps), the Czech Republic and Slovakia. Up to 45% of the evaluated stations (depending on the index) became significantly drier during the 1961-2014 period except for areas in the west and north of the studied region. In addition to identifying the regions with the most pronounced drying trends, a drying trend consistency across the station network of 3 independent national weather services was shown. The main driver behind this development was an increase in the evaporative demand of the atmosphere, driven by higher temperatures and global radiation with limited changes in precipitation totals. The observed drying trends were most pronounced during the April-September period and in lower elevations. Conversely, the majority of stations above 1000 m exhibited a significant wetting trend for both the summer and winter (October-March) half-years.

Návaznosti

GA13-19831S, projekt VaV

Název: Hydrometeorologické extrémy na jižní Moravě odvozené z dokumentárních pramenů

Investor: Grantová agentura ČR, Hydrometeorologické extrémy na jižní Moravě odvozené z dokumentárních pramenů

Citovat

TRNKA, Miroslav, Jan BALEK, Petr ŠTĚPÁNEK, Pavel ZAHRADNÍČEK, Martin MOŽNÝ, Josef EITZINGER, Zdeněk ŽALUD, Herbert FORMAYER, Maroš TURŇA, Pavol NEJEDLÍK, Daniela SEMERÁDOVÁ, Petr HLAVINKA a Rudolf BRÁZDIL. Drought trends over part of Central Europe between 1961 and 2014. Climate Research. 2016, roč. 70, 2-3, s. 143-160. ISSN 0936-577X. Dostupné z: https://dx.doi.org/10.3354/cr01420.

@article{1371110,
   author = {Trnka, Miroslav and Balek, Jan and Štěpánek, Petr and Zahradníček, Pavel and Možný, Martin and Eitzinger, Josef and Žalud, Zdeněk and Formayer, Herbert and Turňa, Maroš and Nejedlík, Pavol and Semerádová, Daniela and Hlavinka, Petr and Brázdil, Rudolf},
   article_number = {2-3},
   doi = {http://dx.doi.org/10.3354/cr01420},
   keywords = {SPI; PDSI; SPEI; Z-index; ICDI; drought climatology; climate trends},
   language = {eng},
   issn = {0936-577X},
   journal = {Climate Research},
   title = {Drought trends over part of Central Europe between 1961 and 2014},
   volume = {70},
   year = {2016}
}

TY  - JOUR
ID  - 1371110
AU  - Trnka, Miroslav - Balek, Jan - Štěpánek, Petr - Zahradníček, Pavel - Možný, Martin - Eitzinger, Josef - Žalud, Zdeněk - Formayer, Herbert - Turňa, Maroš - Nejedlík, Pavol - Semerádová, Daniela - Hlavinka, Petr - Brázdil, Rudolf
PY  - 2016
TI  - Drought trends over part of Central Europe between 1961 and 2014
JF  - Climate Research
VL  - 70
IS  - 2-3
SP  - 143-160
EP  - 143-160
SN  - 0936577X
KW  - SPI
KW  - PDSI
KW  - SPEI
KW  - Z-index
KW  - ICDI
KW  - drought climatology
KW  - climate trends
N2  - An increase in drought frequency, duration and severity is expected for the Central European region as a direct consequence of climate change. This will have profound effects on a number of key sectors (e.g. agriculture, forestry, energy production and tourism) and also affect water resources, biodiversity and the landscape as a whole. However, global circulation models significantly differ in their projections for Central Europe with respect to the magnitude and timing of these changes. Therefore, analysis of changes in drought characteristics during the last 54 yr in relation to prevailing climate trends might significantly enhance our understanding of present and future drought risks. This study is based on a set of drought indices, including the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI), the Palmer Drought Severity Index (PDSI), the Palmer Zindex (Z-index) and the Standardized Precipitation-Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI), in their most advanced formulations. The time series of the drought indices were calculated for 411 climatological stations across Austria (excluding the Alps), the Czech Republic and Slovakia. Up to 45% of the evaluated stations (depending on the index) became significantly drier during the 1961-2014 period except for areas in the west and north of the studied region. In addition to identifying the regions with the most pronounced drying trends, a drying trend consistency across the station network of 3 independent national weather services was shown. The main driver behind this development was an increase in the evaporative demand of the atmosphere, driven by higher temperatures and global radiation with limited changes in precipitation totals. The observed drying trends were most pronounced during the April-September period and in lower elevations. Conversely, the majority of stations above 1000 m exhibited a significant wetting trend for both the summer and winter (October-March) half-years.
ER  -

TRNKA, Miroslav, Jan BALEK, Petr ŠTĚPÁNEK, Pavel ZAHRADNÍČEK, Martin MOŽNÝ, Josef EITZINGER, Zdeněk ŽALUD, Herbert FORMAYER, Maroš TURŇA, Pavol NEJEDLÍK, Daniela SEMERÁDOVÁ, Petr HLAVINKA a Rudolf BRÁZDIL. Drought trends over part of Central Europe between 1961 and 2014. \textit{Climate Research}. 2016, roč.~70, 2-3, s.~143-160. ISSN~0936-577X. Dostupné z: https://dx.doi.org/10.3354/cr01420.

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