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@article{1373393,
author = {Janská, Veronika and Jiménez Alfaro González, Francisco De Borja and Chytrý, Milan and Divíšek, Jan and Anenkhonov, Oleg and Korolyuk, Andrey and Lashchinskyi, Nikolai and Culek, Martin},
article_location = {Oxford},
article_number = {March},
doi = {http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.quascirev.2017.01.011},
keywords = {Europe; Last Glacial Maximum; Modern analogues; Palaeoecological reconstructions; Siberia; Species distribution modelling},
language = {eng},
issn = {0277-3791},
journal = {Quaternary Science Reviews},
title = {Palaeodistribution modelling of European vegetation types at the Last Glacial Maximum using modern analogues from Siberia: Prospects and limitations},
url = {http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0277379117300598},
volume = {159},
year = {2017}
}
TY - JOUR
ID - 1373393
AU - Janská, Veronika - Jiménez Alfaro González, Francisco De Borja - Chytrý, Milan - Divíšek, Jan - Anenkhonov, Oleg - Korolyuk, Andrey - Lashchinskyi, Nikolai - Culek, Martin
PY - 2017
TI - Palaeodistribution modelling of European vegetation types at the Last Glacial Maximum using modern analogues from Siberia: Prospects and limitations
JF - Quaternary Science Reviews
VL - 159
IS - March
SP - 103-115
EP - 103-115
PB - PERGAMON-ELSEVIER SCIENCE LTD
SN - 02773791
KW - Europe
KW - Last Glacial Maximum
KW - Modern analogues
KW - Palaeoecological reconstructions
KW - Siberia
KW - Species distribution modelling
UR - http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0277379117300598
N2 - We modelled the European distribution of vegetation types at the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) using present-day data from Siberia, a region hypothesized to be a modern analogue of European glacial climate. Distribution models were calibrated with current climate using 6274 vegetation-plot records surveyed in Siberia. Out of 22 initially used vegetation types, good or moderately good models in terms of statistical validation and expert-based evaluation were computed for 18 types, which were then projected to European climate at the LGM. The resulting distributions were generally consistent with reconstructions based on pollen records and dynamic vegetation models. Spatial predictions were most reliable for steppe, forest-steppe, taiga, tundra, fens and bogs in eastern and central Europe, which had LGM climate more similar to present-day Siberia. The models for western and southern Europe, regions with a lower degree of climatic analogy, were only reliable for mires and steppe vegetation, respectively. Modelling LGM vegetation types for the wetter and warmer regions of Europe would therefore require gathering calibration data from outside Siberia. Our approach adds value to the reconstruction of vegetation at the LGM, which is limited by scarcity of pollen and macrofossil data, suggesting where specific habitats could have occurred. Despite the uncertainties of climatic extrapolations and the difficulty of validating the projections for vegetation types, the integration of palaeodistribution modelling with other approaches has a great potential for improving our understanding of biodiversity patterns during the LGM.
ER -
JANSKÁ, Veronika, Francisco De Borja JIMÉNEZ ALFARO GONZÁLEZ, Milan CHYTRÝ, Jan DIVÍŠEK, Oleg ANENKHONOV, Andrey KOROLYUK, Nikolai LASHCHINSKYI a Martin CULEK. Palaeodistribution modelling of European vegetation types at the Last Glacial Maximum using modern analogues from Siberia: Prospects and limitations. \textit{Quaternary Science Reviews}. Oxford: PERGAMON-ELSEVIER SCIENCE LTD, 2017, roč.~159, March, s.~103-115. ISSN~0277-3791. Dostupné z: https://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.quascirev.2017.01.011.
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