Cohort fertility decline in low fertility countries :
Decomposition using parity progression ratios

J 2018

Cohort fertility decline in low fertility countries : Decomposition using parity progression ratios

ZEMAN, Krystof; Eva BEAUJOUAN; Zuzanna BRZOZOWSKA a Tomáš SOBOTKA

Základní údaje

Originální název

Cohort fertility decline in low fertility countries : Decomposition using parity progression ratios

Autoři

ZEMAN, Krystof; Eva BEAUJOUAN; Zuzanna BRZOZOWSKA a Tomáš SOBOTKA

Vydání

Demographic Research, Rostock, Max-Planck-Institut fur Demografische Forschung, 2018, 1435-9871

Další údaje

Jazyk

angličtina

Typ výsledku

Článek v odborném periodiku

Obor

50402 Demography

Stát vydavatele

Německo

Utajení

není předmětem státního či obchodního tajemství

Odkazy

článek

Impakt faktor

Impact factor: 1.324

Označené pro přenos do RIV

Ano

Kód RIV

RIV/00216224:14230/18:00102345

Organizační jednotka

Fakulta sociálních studií

Klíčová slova anglicky

childlessness; cohort fertility; decomposition; family size; fertility decline; parity progression ratios

Štítky

rivok

Příznaky

Mezinárodní význam, Recenzováno

Změněno: 15. 3. 2019 10:42, Mgr. Blanka Farkašová

Anotace

V originále

Background: The long-term decline in cohort fertility in highly developed countries has been widely documented. However, no systematic analysis has investigated which parity contributed most to the fertility decline to low and very low levels. Objective: We examine how the contribution of changing parity progression ratios varied across cohorts, countries, and broader regions in Europe, North America, Australia, and East Asia. We pay special attention to countries that reached very low completed cohort fertility, below 1.75 children per woman. Methods: Using population censuses and large-scale surveys for 32 low fertility countries, we decompose the change in completed cohort fertility among women born between 1940 and 1970. The decomposition method takes into account the sequential nature of childbearing as a chain of transitions from lower to higher parities. Results: Among women born between 1940 and 1955, the fertility decline was mostly driven by reductions in the progression ratios to third and higher-order births. By contrast, among women born between 1955 and 1970, changes in fertility showed distinct regional patterns: In Central and Eastern Europe they were fuelled by falling second-birth rates, whereas in the German-speaking countries, Southern Europe, and East Asia decreases in first-birth rates played the major role. Conclusions: Pathways to low and very low fertility show distinct geographical patterns, which reflect the diversity of the cultural, socioeconomic, and institutional settings of low fertility countries. Contribution: Our study highlights the importance of analysing parity-specific components of fertility in order to understand fertility change and variation. We demonstrate that similar low levels of completed cohort fertility can result from different combinations of parity-specific fertility rates.

Přiložené soubory

Zeman__Beaujouan__Brzozowska__Sobotka__2018_Cohort_fertility_decline_in_low_fertility_countries._Decomposition_using_parity_progression_ratios_DemRes.pdf

Citovat

ZEMAN, Krystof; Eva BEAUJOUAN; Zuzanna BRZOZOWSKA a Tomáš SOBOTKA. Cohort fertility decline in low fertility countries : Decomposition using parity progression ratios. Demographic Research. Rostock: Max-Planck-Institut fur Demografische Forschung, 2018, roč. 38, February, s. 651-689. ISSN 1435-9871. Dostupné z: https://doi.org/10.4054/DemRes.2018.38.25.

@article{1409531,
   author = {Zeman, Krystof and Beaujouan, Eva and Brzozowska, Zuzanna and Sobotka, Tomáš},
   article_location = {Rostock},
   article_number = {February},
   doi = {https://doi.org/10.4054/DemRes.2018.38.25},
   keywords = {childlessness; cohort fertility; decomposition; family size; fertility decline; parity progression ratios},
   language = {eng},
   issn = {1435-9871},
   journal = {Demographic Research},
   title = {Cohort fertility decline in low fertility countries : Decomposition using parity progression ratios},
   url = {https://www.demographic-research.org/volumes/vol38/25/default.htm},
   volume = {38},
   year = {2018}
}

TY  - JOUR
ID  - 1409531
AU  - Zeman, Krystof - Beaujouan, Eva - Brzozowska, Zuzanna - Sobotka, Tomáš
PY  - 2018
TI  - Cohort fertility decline in low fertility countries : Decomposition using parity progression ratios
JF  - Demographic Research
VL  - 38
IS  - February
SP  - 651-689
EP  - 651-689
PB  - Max-Planck-Institut fur Demografische Forschung
SN  - 14359871
KW  - childlessness
KW  - cohort fertility
KW  - decomposition
KW  - family size
KW  - fertility decline
KW  - parity progression ratios
UR  - https://www.demographic-research.org/volumes/vol38/25/default.htm
L2  - https://www.demographic-research.org/volumes/vol38/25/default.htm
N2  - Background: The long-term decline in cohort fertility in highly developed countries has been widely documented. However, no systematic analysis has investigated which parity contributed most to the fertility decline to low and very low levels. Objective: We examine how the contribution of changing parity progression ratios varied across cohorts, countries, and broader regions in Europe, North America, Australia, and East Asia. We pay special attention to countries that reached very low completed cohort fertility, below 1.75 children per woman. Methods: Using population censuses and large-scale surveys for 32 low fertility countries, we decompose the change in completed cohort fertility among women born between 1940 and 1970. The decomposition method takes into account the sequential nature of childbearing as a chain of transitions from lower to higher parities. Results: Among women born between 1940 and 1955, the fertility decline was mostly driven by reductions in the progression ratios to third and higher-order births. By contrast, among women born between 1955 and 1970, changes in fertility showed distinct regional patterns: In Central and Eastern Europe they were fuelled by falling second-birth rates, whereas in the German-speaking countries, Southern Europe, and East Asia decreases in first-birth rates played the major role. Conclusions: Pathways to low and very low fertility show distinct geographical patterns, which reflect the diversity of the cultural, socioeconomic, and institutional settings of low fertility countries. Contribution: Our study highlights the importance of analysing parity-specific components of fertility in order to understand fertility change and variation. We demonstrate that similar low levels of completed cohort fertility can result from different combinations of parity-specific fertility rates.
ER  -

ZEMAN, Krystof; Eva BEAUJOUAN; Zuzanna BRZOZOWSKA a Tomáš SOBOTKA. Cohort fertility decline in low fertility countries : Decomposition using parity progression ratios. \textit{Demographic Research}. Rostock: Max-Planck-Institut fur Demografische Forschung, 2018, roč.~38, February, s.~651-689. ISSN~1435-9871. Dostupné z: https://doi.org/10.4054/DemRes.2018.38.25.

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