Projecting potential future shifts in species composition of
European urban plant communities

J 2018

Projecting potential future shifts in species composition of European urban plant communities

LOSOSOVÁ, Zdeňka, Lubomír TICHÝ, Jan DIVÍŠEK, Natálie ČEPLOVÁ, Jiří DANIHELKA et. al.

Základní údaje

Originální název

Projecting potential future shifts in species composition of European urban plant communities

Autoři

LOSOSOVÁ, Zdeňka (203 Česká republika, garant, domácí), Lubomír TICHÝ (203 Česká republika, domácí), Jan DIVÍŠEK (203 Česká republika, domácí), Natálie ČEPLOVÁ (203 Česká republika, domácí), Jiří DANIHELKA (203 Česká republika, domácí), Pavel DŘEVOJAN (203 Česká republika, domácí), Karel FAJMON (203 Česká republika, domácí), Veronika KALNÍKOVÁ (203 Česká republika, domácí), Veronika KALUSOVÁ (203 Česká republika, domácí), Pavel NOVÁK (203 Česká republika, domácí), Vladimír ŘEHOŘEK (203 Česká republika, domácí), Tamás WIRTH (348 Maďarsko) a Milan CHYTRÝ (203 Česká republika, domácí)

Vydání

Diversity and Distributions, Wiley, 2018, 1366-9516

Další údaje

Jazyk

angličtina

Typ výsledku

Článek v odborném periodiku

Obor

10600 1.6 Biological sciences

Stát vydavatele

Velká Británie a Severní Irsko

Utajení

není předmětem státního či obchodního tajemství

Odkazy

URL

Impakt faktor

Impact factor: 4.092

Kód RIV

RIV/00216224:14310/18:00101053

Organizační jednotka

Přírodovědecká fakulta

DOI

http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/ddi.12725

UT WoS

000433571100005

Klíčová slova anglicky

CCSM4; climate chang; plant functional types; plant invasion; urban ecology; vegetation modelling

Příznaky

Mezinárodní význam, Recenzováno

Změněno: 23. 4. 2024 11:23, Mgr. Michal Petr

Anotace

V originále

Aim: Urban floras are composed of species of different origin, both native and alien, and with various traits and niches. It is likely that these species will respond to the ongoing climate change in different ways, resulting in future species compositions with no analogues in current European cities. Our goal was to estimate potential shifts in plant species composition in European cities under different scenarios of climate change for the 21st century. - Location: Europe. - Methods: Potential changes in the distribution of 375 species currently growing in 60 large cities in Southern, Central and Western Europe were modelled using generalized linear models and four climate change projections for two future periods (2041-2060 and 2061-2080). These projections were based on two global climate models (CCSM4 and MIROC-ESM) and two Representative Concentration Pathways (2.6 and 8.5). - Results: Results were similar across all climate projections, suggesting that the composition of urban plant communities will change considerably due to future climate change. However, even under the most severe climate change scenario, native and alien species will respond to climate change similarly. Many currently established species will decline and others, especially annuals currently restricted to Southern Europe, will spread to northern cities. In contrast, perennial herbs, woody plants and most species with temperate continental and oceanic distribution ranges will make up a smaller proportion of future European urban plant communities in comparison with the present communities. - Main conclusions: The projected 21st century climate change will lead to considerable changes in the species composition of urban floras. These changes will affect the structure and functioning of urban plant communities.

Návaznosti

GA14-10723S, projekt VaV

Název: Rostlinná společenstva měst: model vznikajících společenstev budoucnosti

Investor: Grantová agentura ČR, Rostlinná společenstva měst: model vznikajících společenstev budoucnosti

GB14-36079G, projekt VaV

Název: Centrum analýzy a syntézy rostlinné diverzity (PLADIAS) (Akronym: PLADIAS)

Investor: Grantová agentura ČR, Centrum analýzy a syntézy rostlinné diverzity

Citovat

LOSOSOVÁ, Zdeňka, Lubomír TICHÝ, Jan DIVÍŠEK, Natálie ČEPLOVÁ, Jiří DANIHELKA, Pavel DŘEVOJAN, Karel FAJMON, Veronika KALNÍKOVÁ, Veronika KALUSOVÁ, Pavel NOVÁK, Vladimír ŘEHOŘEK, Tamás WIRTH a Milan CHYTRÝ. Projecting potential future shifts in species composition of European urban plant communities. Diversity and Distributions. Wiley, 2018, roč. 24, č. 6, s. 765-775. ISSN 1366-9516. Dostupné z: https://dx.doi.org/10.1111/ddi.12725.

@article{1423261,
   author = {Lososová, Zdeňka and Tichý, Lubomír and Divíšek, Jan and Čeplová, Natálie and Danihelka, Jiří and Dřevojan, Pavel and Fajmon, Karel and Kalníková, Veronika and Kalusová, Veronika and Novák, Pavel and Řehořek, Vladimír and Wirth, Tamás and Chytrý, Milan},
   article_number = {6},
   doi = {http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/ddi.12725},
   keywords = {CCSM4; climate chang; plant functional types; plant invasion; urban ecology; vegetation modelling},
   language = {eng},
   issn = {1366-9516},
   journal = {Diversity and Distributions},
   title = {Projecting potential future shifts in species composition of European urban plant communities},
   url = {https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/ddi.12725},
   volume = {24},
   year = {2018}
}

TY  - JOUR
ID  - 1423261
AU  - Lososová, Zdeňka - Tichý, Lubomír - Divíšek, Jan - Čeplová, Natálie - Danihelka, Jiří - Dřevojan, Pavel - Fajmon, Karel - Kalníková, Veronika - Kalusová, Veronika - Novák, Pavel - Řehořek, Vladimír - Wirth, Tamás - Chytrý, Milan
PY  - 2018
TI  - Projecting potential future shifts in species composition of European urban plant communities
JF  - Diversity and Distributions
VL  - 24
IS  - 6
SP  - 765-775
EP  - 765-775
PB  - Wiley
SN  - 13669516
KW  - CCSM4
KW  - climate chang
KW  - plant functional types
KW  - plant invasion
KW  - urban ecology
KW  - vegetation modelling
UR  - https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/ddi.12725
N2  - Aim: Urban floras are composed of species of different origin, both native and alien, and with various traits and niches. It is likely that these species will respond to the ongoing climate change in different ways, resulting in future species compositions with no analogues in current European cities. Our goal was to estimate potential shifts in plant species composition in European cities under different scenarios of climate change for the 21st century. - Location: Europe. - Methods: Potential changes in the distribution of 375 species currently growing in 60 large cities in Southern, Central and Western Europe were modelled using generalized linear models and four climate change projections for two future periods (2041-2060 and 2061-2080). These projections were based on two global climate models (CCSM4 and MIROC-ESM) and two Representative Concentration Pathways (2.6 and 8.5). - Results: Results were similar across all climate projections, suggesting that the composition of urban plant communities will change considerably due to future climate change. However, even under the most severe climate change scenario, native and alien species will respond to climate change similarly. Many currently established species will decline and others, especially annuals currently restricted to Southern Europe, will spread to northern cities. In contrast, perennial herbs, woody plants and most species with temperate continental and oceanic distribution ranges will make up a smaller proportion of future European urban plant communities in comparison with the present communities. - Main conclusions: The projected 21st century climate change will lead to considerable changes in the species composition of urban floras. These changes will affect the structure and functioning of urban plant communities.
ER  -

LOSOSOVÁ, Zdeňka, Lubomír TICHÝ, Jan DIVÍŠEK, Natálie ČEPLOVÁ, Jiří DANIHELKA, Pavel DŘEVOJAN, Karel FAJMON, Veronika KALNÍKOVÁ, Veronika KALUSOVÁ, Pavel NOVÁK, Vladimír ŘEHOŘEK, Tamás WIRTH a Milan CHYTRÝ. Projecting potential future shifts in species composition of European urban plant communities. \textit{Diversity and Distributions}. Wiley, 2018, roč.~24, č.~6, s.~765-775. ISSN~1366-9516. Dostupné z: https://dx.doi.org/10.1111/ddi.12725.

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