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@proceedings{1475757,
author = {Bízik, Vladimír},
booktitle = {4. Mezinárodní konference Defence and Strategy 2018},
keywords = {Turkey; Stability; Social Order; Cosmopolitanism; Rationality; Conflict; Militarization; Civil-Military Relations; Democratic Backsliding},
language = {eng},
title = {Discord at Home, Discord in the World : Is Turkey, NATO’s Eastern Frontier, Sustainably Stable and Peaceful?},
year = {2018}
}
TY - CONF
ID - 1475757
AU - Bízik, Vladimír
PY - 2018
TI - Discord at Home, Discord in the World : Is Turkey, NATO’s Eastern Frontier, Sustainably Stable and Peaceful?
KW - Turkey
KW - Stability
KW - Social Order
KW - Cosmopolitanism
KW - Rationality
KW - Conflict
KW - Militarization
KW - Civil-Military Relations
KW - Democratic Backsliding
N2 - The aim of this presentation is to determine if it is likely for Turkey to remain a stable country that will avoid serious internal conflicts and violent conflicts abroad. The keynote examines long-term cultural and civilizational variables of cosmopolitanism and rationality. It examines indicators that are more immediately associated with escalation of internal conflict: violent criminality, youth unemployment rate income inequality, corruption perception, and political terror. In the end it examines the level of militarization and the evolution and current state of civil-military relations. It concludes that most of the indicators do not bode well for the stability and democratic consolidation of Turkey. The reason Turkey has not succumbed to violence and social instability is likely due to its high level of political repression. The author concludes that given the characteristics of the Turkish society, two basic scenarios for future development are feasible: Turkey can either become much less stable and a victim to social discord with a chance of dangerous escalation; or it will cement its authoritarianism and manage social order by draconian policing, disproportionate “counter-terrorism” laws and a disregard for the rule of law. Neither of these scenarios is favorable for its NATO allies, who must engage Turkey and work within the framework of existing alliances and international organizations to mitigate the risks of Turkey either becoming a rogue player or a state embroiled in a civil conflict.
ER -
BÍZIK, Vladimír. Discord at Home, Discord in the World : Is Turkey, NATO’s Eastern Frontier, Sustainably Stable and Peaceful? In \textit{4. Mezinárodní konference Defence and Strategy 2018}. 2018.
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