Kessler Syndrome : System Dynamics Model

J 2018

Kessler Syndrome : System Dynamics Model

DRMOLA, Jakub a Tomáš HUBÍK

Základní údaje

Originální název

Kessler Syndrome : System Dynamics Model

Autoři

DRMOLA, Jakub a Tomáš HUBÍK

Vydání

Space Policy, Oxford, Elsevier, 2018, 0265-9646

Další údaje

Jazyk

angličtina

Typ výsledku

Článek v odborném periodiku

Obor

50601 Political science

Stát vydavatele

Velká Británie a Severní Irsko

Utajení

není předmětem státního či obchodního tajemství

Odkazy

článek

Impakt faktor

Impact factor: 0.582

Označené pro přenos do RIV

Ano

Kód RIV

RIV/00216224:14230/18:00104837

Organizační jednotka

Fakulta sociálních studií

Klíčová slova anglicky

System dynamics; Kessler syndrome; Satellites; Orbital debris; Antisatellite weapons; Debris evolutionary model

Štítky

rivok

Příznaky

Mezinárodní význam, Recenzováno

Změněno: 24. 1. 2019 17:35, Mgr. Blanka Farkašová

Anotace

V originále

The present article explores the Kessler syndrome (the potentially catastrophic accumulation of debris in the low-earth orbit) through system dynamics methodology. It models satellites and three classes of debris, their fragmentation, interactions, and gradual decay over 50 years. It presents 5 scenarios: (a) a “business as usual” approach, which leads to exponential accumulation and growing rate of satellite losses, but no catastrophic chain reaction; (b) a conflict with a large-scale deployment of antisatellite weapons, leading to an accelerated accumulation and losses, but still no chain reaction; (c) electromagnetic pulse scenario modeling loss of control over satellites en masse; (d) cessation of all low earth orbit (LEO) satellite launches, illustrating high inertia of the system, which continues to produce more debris; and (e) scenario representing an attempt to mitigate the situation via direct removal of some portion of inactive satellites from the LEO. All scenarios take place in 2040. The article demonstrates the gravity of the situation and the necessity for a sustainable long-term solution, as orbital debris poses a threat to our future space operation even without triggering a catastrophic chain reaction.

Návaznosti

MUNI/A/1159/2016, interní kód MU

Název: Aktuální problémy politologického výzkumu III.

Investor: Masarykova univerzita, Aktuální problémy politologického výzkumu III., DO R. 2020_Kategorie A - Specifický výzkum - Studentské výzkumné projekty

Přiložené soubory

Kessler_syndrome.pdf

Požádat o autorskou verzi souboru

Citovat

DRMOLA, Jakub a Tomáš HUBÍK. Kessler Syndrome : System Dynamics Model. Space Policy. Oxford: Elsevier, 2018, roč. 44-45, August, s. 29-39. ISSN 0265-9646. Dostupné z: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.spacepol.2018.03.003.

@article{1475876,
   author = {Drmola, Jakub and Hubík, Tomáš},
   article_location = {Oxford},
   article_number = {August},
   doi = {https://doi.org/10.1016/j.spacepol.2018.03.003},
   keywords = {System dynamics; Kessler syndrome; Satellites; Orbital debris; Antisatellite weapons; Debris evolutionary model},
   language = {eng},
   issn = {0265-9646},
   journal = {Space Policy},
   title = {Kessler Syndrome : System Dynamics Model},
   url = {https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0265964617300966?via%3Dihub},
   volume = {44-45},
   year = {2018}
}

TY  - JOUR
ID  - 1475876
AU  - Drmola, Jakub - Hubík, Tomáš
PY  - 2018
TI  - Kessler Syndrome : System Dynamics Model
JF  - Space Policy
VL  - 44-45
IS  - August
SP  - 29-39
EP  - 29-39
PB  - Elsevier
SN  - 02659646
KW  - System dynamics
KW  - Kessler syndrome
KW  - Satellites
KW  - Orbital debris
KW  - Antisatellite weapons
KW  - Debris evolutionary model
UR  - https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0265964617300966?via%3Dihub
L2  - https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0265964617300966?via%3Dihub
N2  - The present article explores the Kessler syndrome (the potentially catastrophic accumulation of debris in the low-earth orbit) through system dynamics methodology. It models satellites and three classes of debris, their fragmentation, interactions, and gradual decay over 50 years. It presents 5 scenarios: (a) a “business as usual” approach, which leads to exponential accumulation and growing rate of satellite losses, but no catastrophic chain reaction; (b) a conflict with a large-scale deployment of antisatellite weapons, leading to an accelerated accumulation and losses, but still no chain reaction; (c) electromagnetic pulse scenario modeling loss of control over satellites en masse; (d) cessation of all low earth orbit (LEO) satellite launches, illustrating high inertia of the system, which continues to produce more debris; and (e) scenario representing an attempt to mitigate the situation via direct removal of some portion of inactive satellites from the LEO. All scenarios take place in 2040. The article demonstrates the gravity of the situation and the necessity for a sustainable long-term solution, as orbital debris poses a threat to our future space operation even without triggering a catastrophic chain reaction.
ER  -

DRMOLA, Jakub a Tomáš HUBÍK. Kessler Syndrome : System Dynamics Model. \textit{Space Policy}. Oxford: Elsevier, 2018, roč.~44-45, August, s.~29-39. ISSN~0265-9646. Dostupné z: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.spacepol.2018.03.003.

Přehled o publikaci