Spatial modelling of summer climate indices based on local
climate zones: expected changes in the future climate of Brno,
Czech Republic

J 2019

Spatial modelling of summer climate indices based on local climate zones: expected changes in the future climate of Brno, Czech Republic

GELETIČ, Jan, Michal LEHNERT, Petr DOBROVOLNÝ a Maja ZUVELA-ALOISE

Základní údaje

Originální název

Spatial modelling of summer climate indices based on local climate zones: expected changes in the future climate of Brno, Czech Republic

Autoři

GELETIČ, Jan (203 Česká republika, garant), Michal LEHNERT (203 Česká republika), Petr DOBROVOLNÝ (203 Česká republika, domácí) a Maja ZUVELA-ALOISE (40 Rakousko)

Vydání

Climatic Change, Dordrecht, Springer Netherlands, 2019, 0165-0009

Další údaje

Jazyk

angličtina

Typ výsledku

Článek v odborném periodiku

Obor

10509 Meteorology and atmospheric sciences

Stát vydavatele

Nizozemské království

Utajení

není předmětem státního či obchodního tajemství

Odkazy

Full Text

Impakt faktor

Impact factor: 4.134

Kód RIV

RIV/00216224:14310/19:00109520

Organizační jednotka

Přírodovědecká fakulta

DOI

http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s10584-018-2353-5

UT WoS

000462907000011

Klíčová slova anglicky

URBAN HEAT LOAD; LARGE-EDDY SIMULATION; TEMPERATURE OBSERVATIONS; CHANGE IMPACTS; EURO-CORDEX; CITIES; HEALTH; SCHEME; CITY; VARIABILITY

Štítky

rivok

Příznaky

Mezinárodní význam, Recenzováno

Změněno: 18. 3. 2020 09:14, Mgr. Marie Šípková, DiS.

Anotace

V originále

With global climate change ongoing, there is growing concern about future living conditions in urban areas. This contribution presents the modelled spatial distribution of two daytime (summer days, hot days), and two night-time (warm nights and tropical nights) summer climate indices in the recent and future climate of the urban environment of Brno, Czech Republic, within the framework of local climate zones (LCZs). The thermodynamic MUKLIMO_3 model combined with the CUBOID method is used for spatial modelling. Climate indices are calculated from measurements over three periods (1961-1990, 1971-2000 and 1981-2010). The EURO-CORDEX database for two periods (2021-2050 and 2071-2100) and three representative concentration pathway (RCP) scenarios (2.6, 4.5 and 8.5) are employed to indicate future climate. The results show that the values of summer climate indices will significantly increase in the twenty-first century. In all LCZs, the increase per RCP 8.5 scenario is substantially more pronounced than scenarios per RCP 2.6 and 4.5. Our results indicate that a higher absolute increment in the number of hot days, warm nights and tropical nights is to be expected in already warmer, densely populated midrise and/or compact developments (LCZs 2, 3 and 5) in contrast to a substantially lower increment for forested areas (LCZ A). Considering the projected growth of summer climate indices and the profound differences that exist between LCZs, this study draws urgent attention to the importance of urban planning that works towards moderating the increasing heat stress in central European cities.

Citovat

GELETIČ, Jan, Michal LEHNERT, Petr DOBROVOLNÝ a Maja ZUVELA-ALOISE. Spatial modelling of summer climate indices based on local climate zones: expected changes in the future climate of Brno, Czech Republic. Climatic Change. Dordrecht: Springer Netherlands, 2019, roč. 152, 3-4, s. 487-502. ISSN 0165-0009. Dostupné z: https://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s10584-018-2353-5.

@article{1525576,
   author = {Geletič, Jan and Lehnert, Michal and Dobrovolný, Petr and ZuvelaandAloise, Maja},
   article_location = {Dordrecht},
   article_number = {3-4},
   doi = {http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s10584-018-2353-5},
   keywords = {URBAN HEAT LOAD; LARGE-EDDY SIMULATION; TEMPERATURE OBSERVATIONS; CHANGE IMPACTS; EURO-CORDEX; CITIES; HEALTH; SCHEME; CITY; VARIABILITY},
   language = {eng},
   issn = {0165-0009},
   journal = {Climatic Change},
   title = {Spatial modelling of summer climate indices based on local climate zones: expected changes in the future climate of Brno, Czech Republic},
   url = {https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s10584-018-2353-5},
   volume = {152},
   year = {2019}
}

TY  - JOUR
ID  - 1525576
AU  - Geletič, Jan - Lehnert, Michal - Dobrovolný, Petr - Zuvela-Aloise, Maja
PY  - 2019
TI  - Spatial modelling of summer climate indices based on local climate zones: expected changes in the future climate of Brno, Czech Republic
JF  - Climatic Change
VL  - 152
IS  - 3-4
SP  - 487-502
EP  - 487-502
PB  - Springer Netherlands
SN  - 01650009
KW  - URBAN HEAT LOAD
KW  - LARGE-EDDY SIMULATION
KW  - TEMPERATURE OBSERVATIONS
KW  - CHANGE IMPACTS
KW  - EURO-CORDEX
KW  - CITIES
KW  - HEALTH
KW  - SCHEME
KW  - CITY
KW  - VARIABILITY
UR  - https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s10584-018-2353-5
L2  - https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s10584-018-2353-5
N2  - With global climate change ongoing, there is growing concern about future living conditions in urban areas. This contribution presents the modelled spatial distribution of two daytime (summer days, hot days), and two night-time (warm nights and tropical nights) summer climate indices in the recent and future climate of the urban environment of Brno, Czech Republic, within the framework of local climate zones (LCZs). The thermodynamic MUKLIMO_3 model combined with the CUBOID method is used for spatial modelling. Climate indices are calculated from measurements over three periods (1961-1990, 1971-2000 and 1981-2010). The EURO-CORDEX database for two periods (2021-2050 and 2071-2100) and three representative concentration pathway (RCP) scenarios (2.6, 4.5 and 8.5) are employed to indicate future climate. The results show that the values of summer climate indices will significantly increase in the twenty-first century. In all LCZs, the increase per RCP 8.5 scenario is substantially more pronounced than scenarios per RCP 2.6 and 4.5. Our results indicate that a higher absolute increment in the number of hot days, warm nights and tropical nights is to be expected in already warmer, densely populated midrise and/or compact developments (LCZs 2, 3 and 5) in contrast to a substantially lower increment for forested areas (LCZ A). Considering the projected growth of summer climate indices and the profound differences that exist between LCZs, this study draws urgent attention to the importance of urban planning that works towards moderating the increasing heat stress in central European cities.
ER  -

GELETIČ, Jan, Michal LEHNERT, Petr DOBROVOLNÝ a Maja ZUVELA-ALOISE. Spatial modelling of summer climate indices based on local climate zones: expected changes in the future climate of Brno, Czech Republic. \textit{Climatic Change}. Dordrecht: Springer Netherlands, 2019, roč.~152, 3-4, s.~487-502. ISSN~0165-0009. Dostupné z: https://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s10584-018-2353-5.

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