J 2019

Chronic hepatitis C in the Czech Republic: forecasting the disease burden

FRAŇKOVÁ, Soňa, Petr URBÁNEK, Petr HUSA, Vratislav NĚMEČEK, Homie RAZAVI et. al.

Základní údaje

Originální název

Chronic hepatitis C in the Czech Republic: forecasting the disease burden

Autoři

FRAŇKOVÁ, Soňa (203 Česká republika, garant), Petr URBÁNEK (203 Česká republika), Petr HUSA (203 Česká republika, domácí), Vratislav NĚMEČEK (203 Česká republika), Homie RAZAVI (840 Spojené státy), Devin RAZAVI-SHEARER (840 Spojené státy), Roman CHLÍBEK (203 Česká republika) a Jan ŠPERL (203 Česká republika)

Vydání

Central European Journal of Public Health, Prague, Tigis s.r.o. 2019, 1210-7778

Další údaje

Jazyk

angličtina

Typ výsledku

Článek v odborném periodiku

Obor

30303 Infectious Diseases

Stát vydavatele

Česká republika

Utajení

není předmětem státního či obchodního tajemství

Odkazy

Impakt faktor

Impact factor: 0.653

Kód RIV

RIV/00216224:14110/19:00110345

Organizační jednotka

Lékařská fakulta

DOI

UT WoS

000472898100002

Klíčová slova anglicky

hepatitis C;disease burden;epidemiology;Czech Republic

Štítky

Příznaky

Mezinárodní význam, Recenzováno
Změněno: 31. 1. 2020 10:36, Mgr. Tereza Miškechová

Anotace

V originále

Objective: Chronic HCV infection is associated with cirrhosis of the liver, hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC), and liver transplantation. HCV disease burden and the impact of new potent direct acting antivirals (DAAs) in the Czech Republic are unknown. Methods: Using a modelling framework, HCV disease progression in the Czech Republic was predicted to 2030 under the current standard of care treatment structure. In addition, two strategies to reduce the future burden of HCV infection were modelled: an incremental increase in treatment annually and WHO targets. Results: The number of viremic infected individuals in the Czech Republic is estimated to peak in 2026 (n = 55,130) and to decline by 0.5% by 2030 (n = 54,840). The number of individuals with compensated cirrhosis (n = 1,400), decompensated cirrhosis (n = 80), HCC (n = 70), and liver related deaths (n = 60) is estimated to more than double by 2030. Through aggressive increases in diagnosis and treatment, HCV related mortality may decrease by 70% by 2030. Conclusions: Disease burden associated with chronic HCV infection is projected to peak in the Czech Republic in 30-40 years. Assuming that the current portion of DAAs used remains constant, a significant reduction in HCV disease burden is possible through increased diagnosis and treatment through 2030. This analysis provides evidence in order to facilitate the development of national strategies for HCV care and management in the Czech Republic.