The influence of decision-making in tree ring-based climate
reconstructions

J 2021

The influence of decision-making in tree ring-based climate reconstructions

BÜNTGEN, Ulf; Kathy ALLEN; Kevin J. ANCHUKAITIS; Dominique ARSENEAULT; Étienne BOUCHER et al.

Základní údaje

Originální název

The influence of decision-making in tree ring-based climate reconstructions

Autoři

BÜNTGEN, Ulf; Kathy ALLEN; Kevin J. ANCHUKAITIS; Dominique ARSENEAULT; Étienne BOUCHER; Achim BRÄUNING; Snigdhansu CHATTERJEE; Paolo CHERUBINI; Olga V. CHURAKOVA; Christophe CORONA; Fabio GENNARETTI; Jussi GRIESSINGER; Sebastian GUILLET; Joel GUIOT; Björn GUNNARSON; Samuli HELAMA; Philipp HOCHREUTHER; Malcolm K. HUGHES; Peter HUYBERS; Alexander V. KIRDYANOV; Paul J. KRUSIC; Josef LUDESCHER; Wolfgang J.-H. MEIER; Vladimir S. MYGLAN; Kurt NICOLUSSI; Clive OPPENHEIMER; Frederick REINIG; Matthew W. SALZER; Kristina SEFTIGEN; Alexander R. STINE; Markus STOFFEL; Scott St. GEORGE; Ernesto TEJEDOR; Aleyda TREVINO; Valerie TROUET; Jianglin WANG; Rob WILSON; Bao YANG; Guobao XU a Jan ESPER

Vydání

Nature Communications, London, Nature Publishing Group, 2021, 2041-1723

Další údaje

Jazyk

angličtina

Typ výsledku

Článek v odborném periodiku

Obor

10510 Climatic research

Stát vydavatele

Německo

Utajení

není předmětem státního či obchodního tajemství

Odkazy

URL

Impakt faktor

Impact factor: 17.694

Označené pro přenos do RIV

Ano

Kód RIV

RIV/00216224:14310/21:00122074

Organizační jednotka

Přírodovědecká fakulta

Klíčová slova anglicky

Climate change; Palaeoclimate; Research data

Štítky

14315030, rivok

Příznaky

Mezinárodní význam, Recenzováno

Změněno: 23. 9. 2021 13:36, Mgr. Marie Novosadová Šípková, DiS.

Anotace

V originále

Tree-ring chronologies underpin the majority of annually-resolved reconstructions of Common Era climate. However, they are derived using different datasets and techniques, the ramifications of which have hitherto been little explored. Here, we report the results of a double-blind experiment that yielded 15 Northern Hemisphere summer temperature reconstructions from a common network of regional tree-ring width datasets. Taken together as an ensemble, the Common Era reconstruction mean correlates with instrumental temperatures from 1794–2016 CE at 0.79 (p < 0.001), reveals summer cooling in the years following large volcanic eruptions, and exhibits strong warming since the 1980s. Differing in their mean, variance, amplitude, sensitivity, and persistence, the ensemble members demonstrate the influence of subjectivity in the reconstruction process. We therefore recommend the routine use of ensemble reconstruction approaches to provide a more consensual picture of past climate variability.

Přiložené soubory

1785721.pdf

Citovat

@article{1785721,
   author = {Büntgen, Ulf and Allen, Kathy and Anchukaitis, Kevin J. and Arseneault, Dominique and Boucher, Étienne and Bräuning, Achim and Chatterjee, Snigdhansu and Cherubini, Paolo and Churakova, Olga V. and Corona, Christophe and Gennaretti, Fabio and Grießinger, Jussi and Guillet, Sebastian and Guiot, Joel and Gunnarson, Björn and Helama, Samuli and Hochreuther, Philipp and Hughes, Malcolm K. and Huybers, Peter and Kirdyanov, Alexander V. and Krusic, Paul J. and Ludescher, Josef and Meier, Wolfgang J.andH. and Myglan, Vladimir S. and Nicolussi, Kurt and Oppenheimer, Clive and Reinig, Frederick and Salzer, Matthew W. and Seftigen, Kristina and Stine, Alexander R. and Stoffel, Markus and George, Scott St. and Tejedor, Ernesto and Trevino, Aleyda and Trouet, Valerie and Wang, Jianglin and Wilson, Rob and Yang, Bao and Xu, Guobao and Esper, Jan},
   article_location = {London},
   article_number = {1},
   doi = {https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-021-23627-6},
   keywords = {Climate change; Palaeoclimate; Research data},
   language = {eng},
   issn = {2041-1723},
   journal = {Nature Communications},
   title = {The influence of decision-making in tree ring-based climate reconstructions},
   url = {https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-021-23627-6},
   volume = {12},
   year = {2021}
}

TY  - JOUR
ID  - 1785721
AU  - Büntgen, Ulf - Allen, Kathy - Anchukaitis, Kevin J. - Arseneault, Dominique - Boucher, Étienne - Bräuning, Achim - Chatterjee, Snigdhansu - Cherubini, Paolo - Churakova, Olga V. - Corona, Christophe - Gennaretti, Fabio - Grießinger, Jussi - Guillet, Sebastian - Guiot, Joel - Gunnarson, Björn - Helama, Samuli - Hochreuther, Philipp - Hughes, Malcolm K. - Huybers, Peter - Kirdyanov, Alexander V. - Krusic, Paul J. - Ludescher, Josef - Meier, Wolfgang J.-H. - Myglan, Vladimir S. - Nicolussi, Kurt - Oppenheimer, Clive - Reinig, Frederick - Salzer, Matthew W. - Seftigen, Kristina - Stine, Alexander R. - Stoffel, Markus - George, Scott St. - Tejedor, Ernesto - Trevino, Aleyda - Trouet, Valerie - Wang, Jianglin - Wilson, Rob - Yang, Bao - Xu, Guobao - Esper, Jan
PY  - 2021
TI  - The influence of decision-making in tree ring-based climate reconstructions
JF  - Nature Communications
VL  - 12
IS  - 1
SP  - "3411"
EP  - "3411"
PB  - Nature Publishing Group
SN  - 20411723
KW  - Climate change
KW  - Palaeoclimate
KW  - Research data
UR  - https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-021-23627-6
N2  - Tree-ring chronologies underpin the majority of annually-resolved reconstructions of Common Era climate. However, they are derived using different datasets and techniques, the ramifications of which have hitherto been little explored. Here, we report the results of a double-blind experiment that yielded 15 Northern Hemisphere summer temperature reconstructions from a common network of regional tree-ring width datasets. Taken together as an ensemble, the Common Era reconstruction mean correlates with instrumental temperatures from 1794–2016 CE at 0.79 (p < 0.001), reveals summer cooling in the years following large volcanic eruptions, and exhibits strong warming since the 1980s. Differing in their mean, variance, amplitude, sensitivity, and persistence, the ensemble members demonstrate the influence of subjectivity in the reconstruction process. We therefore recommend the routine use of ensemble reconstruction approaches to provide a more consensual picture of past climate variability.
ER  -

Přehled o publikaci