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@article{1801037, author = {Kostalova, Zuzana and Horvátová, Eva and Lyócsa, Štefan and Gernat, Peter}, article_location = {Abingdon (England)}, article_number = {1}, doi = {http://dx.doi.org/10.1080/00128775.2021.1990084}, keywords = {Credit growth; sentiment; early warning systems; Bayesian model averaging;macroprudential policy}, language = {eng}, issn = {0012-8775}, journal = {Eastern European Economics}, title = {New Credit Drivers: Results from a Small Open Economy}, url = {https://www.tandfonline.com/eprint/EVPYRMJCC4RGTA5QJSGC/full?target=10.1080/00128775.2021.1990084}, volume = {60}, year = {2022} }
TY - JOUR ID - 1801037 AU - Kostalova, Zuzana - Horvátová, Eva - Lyócsa, Štefan - Gernat, Peter PY - 2022 TI - New Credit Drivers: Results from a Small Open Economy JF - Eastern European Economics VL - 60 IS - 1 SP - 79-112 EP - 79-112 PB - TAYLOR & FRANCIS LTD SN - 00128775 KW - Credit growth KW - sentiment KW - early warning systems KW - Bayesian model averaging;macroprudential policy UR - https://www.tandfonline.com/eprint/EVPYRMJCC4RGTA5QJSGC/full?target=10.1080/00128775.2021.1990084 N2 - In developed economies, macroeconomic indicators such as unemployment and price indices tend to predict new credit expansion. We explore whether business and consumer surveys complement traditional macroeconomic variables in predicting new household and corporate loans in the following 3, 6, 9 and 12 months. Using monthly data for Slovakia, starting in 2009 and ending in 2019, we use Bayesian model averaging to examine 102 potential credit drivers. Our results show that, with the exception of interest rates and unemployment, traditional macroeconomic variables do not seem to drive credit market development. Instead, survey-based perceptions, calendar effects and policy uncertainty show relevant predictive power. ER -
KOSTALOVA, Zuzana, Eva HORVÁTOVÁ, Štefan LYÓCSA a Peter GERNAT. New Credit Drivers: Results from a Small Open Economy. \textit{Eastern European Economics}. Abingdon (England): TAYLOR \&{} FRANCIS LTD, 2022, roč.~60, č.~1, s.~79-112. ISSN~0012-8775. Dostupné z: https://dx.doi.org/10.1080/00128775.2021.1990084.
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