| POUTEAU, Robin, Idoia BIURRUN, Caroline BRUNEL, Milan CHYTRÝ, Wayne DAWSON, Franz ESSL, Trevor FRISTOE, Rense HAVEMAN, Carsten HOBOHM, Florian JANSEN, Holger KREFT, Jonathan LENOIR, Bernd LENZNER, Carsten MEYER, Jesper Erenskjold MOESLUND, Jan PERGL, Petr PYŠEK, Jens-Christian SVENNING, Wilfried THUILLER, Patrick WEIGELT, Thomas WOHLGEMUTH, Qiang YANG and Mark VAN KLEUNEN. Potential alien ranges of European plants will shrink in the future, but less so for already naturalized than for not yet naturalized species. Diversity and Distributions. HOBOKEN: WILEY, 2021, vol. 27, No 11, p. 2063-2076. ISSN 1366-9516. Available from: https://dx.doi.org/10.1111/ddi.13378. |
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@article{1813320,
author = {Pouteau, Robin and Biurrun, Idoia and Brunel, Caroline and Chytrý, Milan and Dawson, Wayne and Essl, Franz and Fristoe, Trevor and Haveman, Rense and Hobohm, Carsten and Jansen, Florian and Kreft, Holger and Lenoir, Jonathan and Lenzner, Bernd and Meyer, Carsten and Moeslund, Jesper Erenskjold and Pergl, Jan and Pyšek, Petr and Svenning, JensandChristian and Thuiller, Wilfried and Weigelt, Patrick and Wohlgemuth, Thomas and Yang, Qiang and van Kleunen, Mark},
article_location = {HOBOKEN},
article_number = {11},
doi = {http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/ddi.13378},
keywords = {Alien plant species; biological invasions; climate change; distributional range shift; interacting effect of global changes; land use change; macroecology; migration; non-analogue climate; species distribution model},
language = {eng},
issn = {1366-9516},
journal = {Diversity and Distributions},
title = {Potential alien ranges of European plants will shrink in the future, but less so for already naturalized than for not yet naturalized species},
url = {https://doi.org/10.1111/ddi.13378},
volume = {27},
year = {2021}
}
TY - JOUR
ID - 1813320
AU - Pouteau, Robin - Biurrun, Idoia - Brunel, Caroline - Chytrý, Milan - Dawson, Wayne - Essl, Franz - Fristoe, Trevor - Haveman, Rense - Hobohm, Carsten - Jansen, Florian - Kreft, Holger - Lenoir, Jonathan - Lenzner, Bernd - Meyer, Carsten - Moeslund, Jesper Erenskjold - Pergl, Jan - Pyšek, Petr - Svenning, Jens-Christian - Thuiller, Wilfried - Weigelt, Patrick - Wohlgemuth, Thomas - Yang, Qiang - van Kleunen, Mark
PY - 2021
TI - Potential alien ranges of European plants will shrink in the future, but less so for already naturalized than for not yet naturalized species
JF - Diversity and Distributions
VL - 27
IS - 11
SP - 2063-2076
EP - 2063-2076
PB - WILEY
SN - 13669516
KW - Alien plant species
KW - biological invasions
KW - climate change
KW - distributional range shift
KW - interacting effect of global changes
KW - land use change
KW - macroecology
KW - migration
KW - non-analogue climate
KW - species distribution model
UR - https://doi.org/10.1111/ddi.13378
N2 - Aims The rapid increase in the number of species that have naturalized beyond their native range is among the most apparent features of the Anthropocene. How alien species will respond to other processes of future global changes is an emerging concern and remains poorly misunderstood. We therefore ask whether naturalized species will respond to climate and land use change differently than those species not yet naturalized anywhere in the world. Location Global. Methods We investigated future changes in the potential alien range of vascular plant species endemic to Europe that are either naturalized (n = 272) or not yet naturalized (1,213) outside of Europe. Potential ranges were estimated based on projections of species distribution models using 20 future climate-change scenarios. We mapped current and future global centres of naturalization risk. We also analysed expected changes in latitudinal, elevational and areal extent of species' potential alien ranges. Results We showed a large potential for more worldwide naturalizations of European plants currently and in the future. The centres of naturalization risk for naturalized and non-naturalized plants largely overlapped, and their location did not change much under projected future climates. Nevertheless, naturalized plants had their potential range shifting poleward over larger distances, whereas the non-naturalized ones had their potential elevational ranges shifting further upslope under the most severe climate change scenarios. As a result, climate and land use changes are predicted to shrink the potential alien range of European plants, but less so for already naturalized than for non-naturalized species. Main conclusions While currently non-naturalized plants originate frequently from mountain ranges or boreal and Mediterranean biomes in Europe, the naturalized ones usually occur at low elevations, close to human centres of activities. As the latter are expected to increase worldwide, this could explain why the potential alien range of already naturalized plants will shrink less.
ER -
POUTEAU, Robin, Idoia BIURRUN, Caroline BRUNEL, Milan CHYTRÝ, Wayne DAWSON, Franz ESSL, Trevor FRISTOE, Rense HAVEMAN, Carsten HOBOHM, Florian JANSEN, Holger KREFT, Jonathan LENOIR, Bernd LENZNER, Carsten MEYER, Jesper Erenskjold MOESLUND, Jan PERGL, Petr PYŠEK, Jens-Christian SVENNING, Wilfried THUILLER, Patrick WEIGELT, Thomas WOHLGEMUTH, Qiang YANG and Mark VAN KLEUNEN. Potential alien ranges of European plants will shrink in the future, but less so for already naturalized than for not yet naturalized species. \textit{Diversity and Distributions}. HOBOKEN: WILEY, 2021, vol.~27, No~11, p.~2063-2076. ISSN~1366-9516. Available from: https://dx.doi.org/10.1111/ddi.13378.
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