| NEPOGODIEV, D, OM OMAR, JC GLASBEY, E LI, JF SIMOES, TE ABBOTT, AO ADEMUYIWA, BM BICCARD, D CHAUDHRY, GH DAVIDSON, Saverio S DI, G GALLO, D GHOSH, EM HARRISON, PJ HUTCHINSON, HM KAAFARANI, SK KAMARAJAH, DS KELLER, I LAWANI, A MINAYA-BRAVO, R MOORE, DG MORTON, F NTIRENGANYA, F PATA, RM PEARSE, La Medina A RAMOS-DE, S TABIRI, ML VENN, A BHANGU, K SIAW-ACHEAMPONG, M ADAMINA, A AGARWAL, E ALAMEER, D ALDERSON, F ALAKALOKO, O ALSER, AP ARNAUD, KM AUGESTAD, BK BANKHEAD-KENDALL, E BARLOW, RA BENSON, R BLANCO-COLINO, A BRAR, A MINAYA-BRAVO, KA BREEN, IL BUARQUE, EJ CARUANA, S CHAKRABORTEE, D COX, MF CUNHA, BE DAWSON, A DESAI, TD DRAKE, JG EDWARDS, M ELHADI, JP EVANS, S FARIK, M FIORE, JE FITZGERALD, S FORD, D GHOSH, GMA GOMES, EA GRIFFITHS, RR GUJJURI, C HALKIAS, E HERITAGE, A ISIK, MD JENKINSON, CS JONES, C KHATRI, JM KEATLEY, A KOLIAS, S LAWDAY, H LEDERHUBER, S LEVENTOGLU, MW LOFFLER, J MARTIN, HN MASHBARI, D MAZINGI, SC MCKAY, S METALLIDIS, Mohan HM, D MOSZKOWICZ, S MOUG, JS NG-KAMSTRA, M NIQUEN, O OUTANI, G PELLINO, TD PINKNEY, P POCKNEY, D RADENKOVIC, K ROBERTS, AC ROSLANI, I SANTOS, A SCHACHE, AA SCHNITZBAUER, GD STEWART, R SHAW, S SHU, K SOREIDE, A SPINELLI, S SUNDAR, A TIWARI, P TOWNEND, IM TROUT, G TSOULFAS, Ramshorst GH VAN, R VIDYA, D VIMALACHANDRAN, O WARREN, RJ WILKIN, N WRIGHT, A HOEFT, A RHODES, B VALLET, B LEVA, C SPIES, JL VINCENT, K GOLDER, M JANUSZEWSKA, P PELOSI, P BAUER, P METNITZ, R MORENO, R PEARSE, R HEWSON, S DAMSTER, V RAMOS, E HOSTE, L HUYGHENS, R JACOBS, Mossevelde V VAN, G OPDENACKER, J POELAERT, Michal DRÁB, Kamil HUDÁČEK, Ivo KŘIKAVA, Petr ŠTOURAČ, milena BRABCOVÁ, Radka KLOZOVÁ, jaromír VAJTER a Tomáš VYMAZAL. Elective surgery cancellations due to theCOVID-19 pandemic: global predictive modelling to inform surgical recovery plans. British Journal of Surgery. Hoboken: Wiley-Blackwell, 2020, roč. 107, č. 11, s. 1440-1449. ISSN 0007-1323. Dostupné z: https://dx.doi.org/10.1002/bjs.11746. |
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@article{1833324,
author = {Nepogodiev, D and Omar, OM and Glasbey, JC and Li, E and Simoes, JF and Abbott, TE and Ademuyiwa, AO and Biccard, BM and Chaudhry, D and Davidson, GH and Di, Saverio S and Gallo, G and Ghosh, D and Harrison, EM and Hutchinson, PJ and Kaafarani, HM and Kamarajah, SK and Keller, DS and Lawani, I and MinayaandBravo, A and Moore, R and Morton, DG and Ntirenganya, F and Pata, F and Pearse, RM and RamosandDe, La Medina A and Tabiri, S and Venn, ML and Bhangu, A and SiawandAcheampong, K and Adamina, M and Agarwal, A and Alameer, E and Alderson, D and Alakaloko, F and Alser, O and Arnaud, AP and Augestad, KM and BankheadandKendall, BK and Barlow, E and Benson, RA and BlancoandColino, R and Brar, A and MinayaandBravo, A and Breen, KA and Buarque, IL and Caruana, EJ and Chakrabortee, S and Cox, D and Cunha, MF and Dawson, BE and Desai, A and Drake, TD and Edwards, JG and Elhadi, M and Evans, JP and Farik, S and Fiore, M and Fitzgerald, JE and Ford, S and Ghosh, D and Gomes, GMA and Griffiths, EA and Gujjuri, RR and Halkias, C and Heritage, E and Isik, A and Jenkinson, MD and Jones, CS and Khatri, C and Keatley, JM and Kolias, A and Lawday, S and Lederhuber, H and Leventoglu, S and Loffler, MW and Martin, J and Mashbari, HN and Mazingi, D and Mckay, SC and Metallidis, S and HM, Mohan and Moszkowicz, D and Moug, S and NgandKamstra, JS and Niquen, M and Outani, O and Pellino, G and Pinkney, TD and Pockney, P and Radenkovic, D and Roberts, K and Roslani, AC and Santos, I and Schache, A and Schnitzbauer, AA and Stewart, GD and Shaw, R and Shu, S and Soreide, K and Spinelli, A and Sundar, S and Tiwari, A and Townend, P and Trout, IM and Tsoulfas, G and van, Ramshorst GH and Vidya, R and Vimalachandran, D and Warren, O and Wilkin, RJ and Wright, N and Hoeft, A and Rhodes, A and Vallet, B and Leva, B and Spies, C and Vincent, JL and Golder, K and Januszewska, M and Pelosi, P and Bauer, P and Metnitz, P and Moreno, R and Pearse, R and Hewson, R and Damster, S and Ramos, V and Hoste, E and Huyghens, L and Jacobs, R and Van, Mossevelde V and Opdenacker, G and Poelaert, J and Dráb, Michal and Hudáček, Kamil and Křikava, Ivo and Štourač, Petr and brabcová, milena and Klozová, Radka and vajter, jaromír and Vymazal, Tomáš},
article_location = {Hoboken},
article_number = {11},
doi = {http://dx.doi.org/10.1002/bjs.11746},
language = {eng},
issn = {0007-1323},
journal = {British Journal of Surgery},
title = {Elective surgery cancellations due to theCOVID-19 pandemic: global predictive modelling to inform surgical recovery plans},
volume = {107},
year = {2020}
}
TY - JOUR
ID - 1833324
AU - Nepogodiev, D - Omar, OM - Glasbey, JC - Li, E - Simoes, JF - Abbott, TE - Ademuyiwa, AO - Biccard, BM - Chaudhry, D - Davidson, GH - Di, Saverio S - Gallo, G - Ghosh, D - Harrison, EM - Hutchinson, PJ - Kaafarani, HM - Kamarajah, SK - Keller, DS - Lawani, I - Minaya-Bravo, A - Moore, R - Morton, DG - Ntirenganya, F - Pata, F - Pearse, RM - Ramos-De, La Medina A - Tabiri, S - Venn, ML - Bhangu, A - Siaw-Acheampong, K - Adamina, M - Agarwal, A - Alameer, E - Alderson, D - Alakaloko, F - Alser, O - Arnaud, AP - Augestad, KM - Bankhead-Kendall, BK - Barlow, E - Benson, RA - Blanco-Colino, R - Brar, A - Minaya-Bravo, A - Breen, KA - Buarque, IL - Caruana, EJ - Chakrabortee, S - Cox, D - Cunha, MF - Dawson, BE - Desai, A - Drake, TD - Edwards, JG - Elhadi, M - Evans, JP - Farik, S - Fiore, M - Fitzgerald, JE - Ford, S - Ghosh, D - Gomes, GMA - Griffiths, EA - Gujjuri, RR - Halkias, C - Heritage, E - Isik, A - Jenkinson, MD - Jones, CS - Khatri, C - Keatley, JM - Kolias, A - Lawday, S - Lederhuber, H - Leventoglu, S - Loffler, MW - Martin, J - Mashbari, HN - Mazingi, D - Mckay, SC - Metallidis, S - HM, Mohan - Moszkowicz, D - Moug, S - Ng-Kamstra, JS - Niquen, M - Outani, O - Pellino, G - Pinkney, TD - Pockney, P - Radenkovic, D - Roberts, K - Roslani, AC - Santos, I - Schache, A - Schnitzbauer, AA - Stewart, GD - Shaw, R - Shu, S - Soreide, K - Spinelli, A - Sundar, S - Tiwari, A - Townend, P - Trout, IM - Tsoulfas, G - van, Ramshorst GH - Vidya, R - Vimalachandran, D - Warren, O - Wilkin, RJ - Wright, N - Hoeft, A - Rhodes, A - Vallet, B - Leva, B - Spies, C - Vincent, JL - Golder, K - Januszewska, M - Pelosi, P - Bauer, P - Metnitz, P - Moreno, R - Pearse, R - Hewson, R - Damster, S - Ramos, V - Hoste, E - Huyghens, L - Jacobs, R - Van, Mossevelde V - Opdenacker, G - Poelaert, J - Dráb, Michal - Hudáček, Kamil - Křikava, Ivo - Štourač, Petr - brabcová, milena - Klozová, Radka - vajter, jaromír - Vymazal, Tomáš
PY - 2020
TI - Elective surgery cancellations due to theCOVID-19 pandemic: global predictive modelling to inform surgical recovery plans
JF - British Journal of Surgery
VL - 107
IS - 11
SP - 1440-1449
EP - 1440-1449
PB - Wiley-Blackwell
SN - 00071323
N2 - Background The COVID-19 pandemic has disrupted routine hospital services globally. This study estimated the total number of adult elective operations that would be cancelled worldwide during the 12 weeks of peak disruption due to COVID-19. Methods A global expert response study was conducted to elicit projections for the proportion of elective surgery that would be cancelled or postponed during the 12 weeks of peak disruption. A Bayesian beta-regression model was used to estimate 12-week cancellation rates for 190 countries. Elective surgical case-mix data, stratified by specialty and indication (surgery for cancerversusbenign disease), were determined. This case mix was applied to country-level surgical volumes. The 12-week cancellation rates were then applied to these figures to calculate the total number of cancelled operations. Results The best estimate was that 28 404 603 operations would be cancelled or postponed during the peak 12 weeks of disruption due to COVID-19 (2 367 050 operations per week). Most would be operations for benign disease (90 center dot 2 per cent, 25 638 922 of 28 404 603). The overall 12-week cancellation rate would be 72 center dot 3 per cent. Globally, 81 center dot 7 per cent of operations for benign conditions (25 638 922 of 31 378 062), 37 center dot 7 per cent of cancer operations (2 324 070 of 6 162 311) and 25 center dot 4 per cent of elective caesarean sections (441 611 of 1 735 483) would be cancelled or postponed. If countries increased their normal surgical volume by 20 per cent after the pandemic, it would take a median of 45 weeks to clear the backlog of operations resulting from COVID-19 disruption. Conclusion A very large number of operations will be cancelled or postponed owing to disruption caused by COVID-19. Governments should mitigate against this major burden on patients by developing recovery plans and implementing strategies to restore surgical activity safely.
ER -
NEPOGODIEV, D, OM OMAR, JC GLASBEY, E LI, JF SIMOES, TE ABBOTT, AO ADEMUYIWA, BM BICCARD, D CHAUDHRY, GH DAVIDSON, Saverio S DI, G GALLO, D GHOSH, EM HARRISON, PJ HUTCHINSON, HM KAAFARANI, SK KAMARAJAH, DS KELLER, I LAWANI, A MINAYA-BRAVO, R MOORE, DG MORTON, F NTIRENGANYA, F PATA, RM PEARSE, La Medina A RAMOS-DE, S TABIRI, ML VENN, A BHANGU, K SIAW-ACHEAMPONG, M ADAMINA, A AGARWAL, E ALAMEER, D ALDERSON, F ALAKALOKO, O ALSER, AP ARNAUD, KM AUGESTAD, BK BANKHEAD-KENDALL, E BARLOW, RA BENSON, R BLANCO-COLINO, A BRAR, A MINAYA-BRAVO, KA BREEN, IL BUARQUE, EJ CARUANA, S CHAKRABORTEE, D COX, MF CUNHA, BE DAWSON, A DESAI, TD DRAKE, JG EDWARDS, M ELHADI, JP EVANS, S FARIK, M FIORE, JE FITZGERALD, S FORD, D GHOSH, GMA GOMES, EA GRIFFITHS, RR GUJJURI, C HALKIAS, E HERITAGE, A ISIK, MD JENKINSON, CS JONES, C KHATRI, JM KEATLEY, A KOLIAS, S LAWDAY, H LEDERHUBER, S LEVENTOGLU, MW LOFFLER, J MARTIN, HN MASHBARI, D MAZINGI, SC MCKAY, S METALLIDIS, Mohan HM, D MOSZKOWICZ, S MOUG, JS NG-KAMSTRA, M NIQUEN, O OUTANI, G PELLINO, TD PINKNEY, P POCKNEY, D RADENKOVIC, K ROBERTS, AC ROSLANI, I SANTOS, A SCHACHE, AA SCHNITZBAUER, GD STEWART, R SHAW, S SHU, K SOREIDE, A SPINELLI, S SUNDAR, A TIWARI, P TOWNEND, IM TROUT, G TSOULFAS, Ramshorst GH VAN, R VIDYA, D VIMALACHANDRAN, O WARREN, RJ WILKIN, N WRIGHT, A HOEFT, A RHODES, B VALLET, B LEVA, C SPIES, JL VINCENT, K GOLDER, M JANUSZEWSKA, P PELOSI, P BAUER, P METNITZ, R MORENO, R PEARSE, R HEWSON, S DAMSTER, V RAMOS, E HOSTE, L HUYGHENS, R JACOBS, Mossevelde V VAN, G OPDENACKER, J POELAERT, Michal DRÁB, Kamil HUDÁČEK, Ivo KŘIKAVA, Petr ŠTOURAČ, milena BRABCOVÁ, Radka KLOZOVÁ, jaromír VAJTER a Tomáš VYMAZAL. Elective surgery cancellations due to theCOVID-19 pandemic: global predictive modelling to inform surgical recovery plans. \textit{British Journal of Surgery}. Hoboken: Wiley-Blackwell, 2020, roč.~107, č.~11, s.~1440-1449. ISSN~0007-1323. Dostupné z: https://dx.doi.org/10.1002/bjs.11746.
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