Future land-use change and its impact on terrestrial ecosystem
carbon pool evolution along the Silk Road under SDG scenarios

J 2023

Future land-use change and its impact on terrestrial ecosystem carbon pool evolution along the Silk Road under SDG scenarios

CAO, Min, Ya TIAN, Kai WU, Min CHEN, Yu CHEN et. al.

Základní údaje

Originální název

Future land-use change and its impact on terrestrial ecosystem carbon pool evolution along the Silk Road under SDG scenarios

Autoři

CAO, Min, Ya TIAN, Kai WU, Min CHEN, Yu CHEN, Xue HU, Zhongchang SUN, Lijun ZUO, Jian LIN, Lei LUO, Rui ZHU, Zhenci XU, Temenoujka BANDROVA, Milan KONEČNÝ (203 Česká republika, domácí), Wenping YUAN, Huadong GUO, Hui LIN a Guonian LÜ (garant)

Vydání

Science Bulletin, Elsevier, 2023, 2095-9273

Další údaje

Jazyk

angličtina

Typ výsledku

Článek v odborném periodiku

Obor

10500 1.5. Earth and related environmental sciences

Stát vydavatele

Nizozemské království

Utajení

není předmětem státního či obchodního tajemství

Odkazy

URL

Impakt faktor

Impact factor: 18.900 v roce 2022

Kód RIV

RIV/00216224:14310/23:00130497

Organizační jednotka

Přírodovědecká fakulta

DOI

http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.scib.2023.03.012

UT WoS

000985269800001

Klíčová slova anglicky

Carbon pool; Cellular automata; Land-use projection; Scenarios; Sustainable development goals (SDGs); System dynamics model

Štítky

rivok

Příznaky

Mezinárodní význam, Recenzováno

Změněno: 2. 6. 2023 14:16, Mgr. Marie Šípková, DiS.

Anotace

V originále

Sustainable development goals (SDGs) in the United Nations 2030 Agenda call for action by all nations to promote economic prosperity while protecting the planet. Projection of future land-use change under SDG scenarios is a new attempt to scientifically achieve the SDGs. Herein, we proposed four scenario assumptions based on the SDGs, including the sustainable economy (ECO), sustainable grain (GRA), sustainable environment (ENV), and reference (REF) scenarios. We forecasted land-use change along the Silk Road (resolution: 300 m) and compared the impacts of urban expansion and forest conversion on terrestrial carbon pools. There were significant differences in future land use change and carbon stocks, under the four SDG scenarios, by 2030. In the ENV scenario, the trend of decreasing forest land was mitigated, and forest carbon stocks in China increased by approximately 0.60% compared to 2020. In the GRA scenario, the decreasing rate of cultivated land area has slowed down. Cultivated land area in South and Southeast Asia only shows an increasing trend in the GRA scenario, while it shows a decreasing trend in other SDG scenarios. The ECO scenario showed highest carbon losses associated with increased urban expansion. The study enhances our understanding of how SDGs can contribute to mitigate future environmental degradation via accurate simulations that can be applied on a global scale.

Citovat

CAO, Min, Ya TIAN, Kai WU, Min CHEN, Yu CHEN, Xue HU, Zhongchang SUN, Lijun ZUO, Jian LIN, Lei LUO, Rui ZHU, Zhenci XU, Temenoujka BANDROVA, Milan KONEČNÝ, Wenping YUAN, Huadong GUO, Hui LIN a Guonian LÜ. Future land-use change and its impact on terrestrial ecosystem carbon pool evolution along the Silk Road under SDG scenarios. Science Bulletin. Elsevier, 2023, roč. 68, č. 7, s. 740-749. ISSN 2095-9273. Dostupné z: https://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.scib.2023.03.012.

@article{2270318,
   author = {Cao, Min and Tian, Ya and Wu, Kai and Chen, Min and Chen, Yu and Hu, Xue and Sun, Zhongchang and Zuo, Lijun and Lin, Jian and Luo, Lei and Zhu, Rui and Xu, Zhenci and Bandrova, Temenoujka and Konečný, Milan and Yuan, Wenping and Guo, Huadong and Lin, Hui and Lü, Guonian},
   article_number = {7},
   doi = {http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.scib.2023.03.012},
   keywords = {Carbon pool; Cellular automata; Land-use projection; Scenarios; Sustainable development goals (SDGs); System dynamics model},
   language = {eng},
   issn = {2095-9273},
   journal = {Science Bulletin},
   title = {Future land-use change and its impact on terrestrial ecosystem carbon pool evolution along the Silk Road under SDG scenarios},
   url = {https://doi.org/10.1016/j.scib.2023.03.012},
   volume = {68},
   year = {2023}
}

TY  - JOUR
ID  - 2270318
AU  - Cao, Min - Tian, Ya - Wu, Kai - Chen, Min - Chen, Yu - Hu, Xue - Sun, Zhongchang - Zuo, Lijun - Lin, Jian - Luo, Lei - Zhu, Rui - Xu, Zhenci - Bandrova, Temenoujka - Konečný, Milan - Yuan, Wenping - Guo, Huadong - Lin, Hui - Lü, Guonian
PY  - 2023
TI  - Future land-use change and its impact on terrestrial ecosystem carbon pool evolution along the Silk Road under SDG scenarios
JF  - Science Bulletin
VL  - 68
IS  - 7
SP  - 740-749
EP  - 740-749
PB  - Elsevier
SN  - 20959273
KW  - Carbon pool
KW  - Cellular automata
KW  - Land-use projection
KW  - Scenarios
KW  - Sustainable development goals (SDGs)
KW  - System dynamics model
UR  - https://doi.org/10.1016/j.scib.2023.03.012
N2  - Sustainable development goals (SDGs) in the United Nations 2030 Agenda call for action by all nations to promote economic prosperity while protecting the planet. Projection of future land-use change under SDG scenarios is a new attempt to scientifically achieve the SDGs. Herein, we proposed four scenario assumptions based on the SDGs, including the sustainable economy (ECO), sustainable grain (GRA), sustainable environment (ENV), and reference (REF) scenarios. We forecasted land-use change along the Silk Road (resolution: 300 m) and compared the impacts of urban expansion and forest conversion on terrestrial carbon pools. There were significant differences in future land use change and carbon stocks, under the four SDG scenarios, by 2030. In the ENV scenario, the trend of decreasing forest land was mitigated, and forest carbon stocks in China increased by approximately 0.60% compared to 2020. In the GRA scenario, the decreasing rate of cultivated land area has slowed down. Cultivated land area in South and Southeast Asia only shows an increasing trend in the GRA scenario, while it shows a decreasing trend in other SDG scenarios. The ECO scenario showed highest carbon losses associated with increased urban expansion. The study enhances our understanding of how SDGs can contribute to mitigate future environmental degradation via accurate simulations that can be applied on a global scale.
ER  -

CAO, Min, Ya TIAN, Kai WU, Min CHEN, Yu CHEN, Xue HU, Zhongchang SUN, Lijun ZUO, Jian LIN, Lei LUO, Rui ZHU, Zhenci XU, Temenoujka BANDROVA, Milan KONEČNÝ, Wenping YUAN, Huadong GUO, Hui LIN a Guonian LÜ. Future land-use change and its impact on terrestrial ecosystem carbon pool evolution along the Silk Road under SDG scenarios. \textit{Science Bulletin}. Elsevier, 2023, roč.~68, č.~7, s.~740-749. ISSN~2095-9273. Dostupné z: https://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.scib.2023.03.012.

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