SHERRATT, Katharine, Hugo GRUSON, Rok GRAH, Helen JOHNSON, Rene NIEHUS, Bastian PRASSE, Frank SANDMANN, Jannik DEUSCHEL, Daniel WOLFFRAM, Sam ABBOTT, Alexander ULLRICH, Graham GIBSON, Evan L RAY, Nicholas G REICH, Daniel SHELDON, Yijin WANG, Nutcha WATTANACHIT, Lijing WANG, Jan TRNKA, Guillaume OBOZINSKI, Tao SUN, Dorina THANOU, Loic POTTIER, Ekaterina KRYMOVA, Jan H MEINKE, Maria Vittoria BARBAROSSA, Neele LEITHÄUSER, Jan MOHRING, Johanna SCHNEIDER, Jaroslaw WŁAZŁO, Jan FUHRMANN, Berit LANGE, Isti RODIAH, Prasith BACCAM, Heidi GURUNG, Steven STAGE, Bradley SUCHOSKI, Jozef BUDZINSKI, Robert WALRAVEN, Inmaculada VILLANUEVA, Vit TUCEK, Martin SMID, Milan ZAJÍČEK, Cesar Pérez ÁLVAREZ, Borja REINA, Nikos I BOSSE, Sophie R MEAKIN, Lauren CASTRO, Geoffrey FAIRCHILD, Isaac MICHAUD, Dave OSTHUS, Pierfrancesco Alaimo Di LORO, Antonello MARUOTTI, Veronika ECLEROVÁ, Andrea KRAUS, David KRAUS, Lenka PŘIBYLOVÁ, Bertsimas DIMITRIS, Michael Lingzhi LI, Soni SAKSHAM, Jonas DEHNING, Sebastian MOHR, Viola PRIESEMANN, Grzegorz REDLARSKI, Benjamin BEJAR, Giovanni ARDENGHI, Nicola PAROLINI, Giovanni ZIARELLI, Wolfgang BOCK, Stefan HEYDER, Thomas HOTZ, David E SINGH, Miguel GUZMAN-MERINO, Jose L AZNARTE, David MORIÑA, Sergio ALONSO, Enric ÁLVAREZ, Daniel LÓPEZ, Clara PRATS, Jan Pablo BURGARD, Arne RODLOFF, Tom ZIMMERMANN, Alexander KUHLMANN, Janez ZIBERT, Fulvia PENNONI, Fabio DIVINO, Marti CATALÀ, Gianfranco LOVISON, Paolo GIUDICI, Barbara TARANTINO, Francesco BARTOLUCCI, Giovanna Jona LASINIO, Marco MINGIONE, Alessio FARCOMENI, Ajitesh SRIVASTAVA, Pablo MONTERO-MANSO, Aniruddha ADIGA, Benjamin HURT, Bryan LEWIS, Madhav MARATHE, Przemyslaw POREBSKI, Srinivasan VENKATRAMANAN, Rafal P BARTCZUK, Filip DREGER, Anna GAMBIN, Krzysztof GOGOLEWSKI, Magdalena GRUZIEL-SŁOMKA, Bartosz KRUPA, Antoni MOSZYŃSKI, Karol NIEDZIELEWSKI, Jedrzej NOWOSIELSKI, Maciej RADWAN, Franciszek RAKOWSKI, Marcin SEMENIUK, Ewa SZCZUREK, Jakub ZIELIŃSKI, Jan KISIELEWSKI, Barbara PABJAN, Holger KIRSTEN, Yuri KHEIFETZ, Markus SCHOLZ, Przemyslaw BIECEK, Marcin BODYCH, Maciej FILINSKI, Radoslaw IDZIKOWSKI, Tyll KRUEGER, Tomasz OZANSKI, Johannes BRACHER a Sebastian FUNK. Predictive performance of multi-model ensemble forecasts of COVID-19 across European nations. eLife. eLife Sciences Publications Ltd, 2023, roč. 12, April, s. 1-19. ISSN 2050-084X. Dostupné z: https://dx.doi.org/10.7554/eLife.81916.
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Základní údaje
Originální název Predictive performance of multi-model ensemble forecasts of COVID-19 across European nations
Autoři SHERRATT, Katharine (garant), Hugo GRUSON, Rok GRAH, Helen JOHNSON, Rene NIEHUS, Bastian PRASSE, Frank SANDMANN, Jannik DEUSCHEL, Daniel WOLFFRAM, Sam ABBOTT, Alexander ULLRICH, Graham GIBSON, Evan L RAY, Nicholas G REICH, Daniel SHELDON, Yijin WANG, Nutcha WATTANACHIT, Lijing WANG, Jan TRNKA, Guillaume OBOZINSKI, Tao SUN, Dorina THANOU, Loic POTTIER, Ekaterina KRYMOVA, Jan H MEINKE, Maria Vittoria BARBAROSSA, Neele LEITHÄUSER, Jan MOHRING, Johanna SCHNEIDER, Jaroslaw WŁAZŁO, Jan FUHRMANN, Berit LANGE, Isti RODIAH, Prasith BACCAM, Heidi GURUNG, Steven STAGE, Bradley SUCHOSKI, Jozef BUDZINSKI, Robert WALRAVEN, Inmaculada VILLANUEVA, Vit TUCEK, Martin SMID, Milan ZAJÍČEK, Cesar Pérez ÁLVAREZ, Borja REINA, Nikos I BOSSE, Sophie R MEAKIN, Lauren CASTRO, Geoffrey FAIRCHILD, Isaac MICHAUD, Dave OSTHUS, Pierfrancesco Alaimo Di LORO, Antonello MARUOTTI, Veronika ECLEROVÁ (203 Česká republika, domácí), Andrea KRAUS (703 Slovensko, domácí), David KRAUS (203 Česká republika, domácí), Lenka PŘIBYLOVÁ (203 Česká republika, domácí), Bertsimas DIMITRIS, Michael Lingzhi LI, Soni SAKSHAM, Jonas DEHNING, Sebastian MOHR, Viola PRIESEMANN, Grzegorz REDLARSKI, Benjamin BEJAR, Giovanni ARDENGHI, Nicola PAROLINI, Giovanni ZIARELLI, Wolfgang BOCK, Stefan HEYDER, Thomas HOTZ, David E SINGH, Miguel GUZMAN-MERINO, Jose L AZNARTE, David MORIÑA, Sergio ALONSO, Enric ÁLVAREZ, Daniel LÓPEZ, Clara PRATS, Jan Pablo BURGARD, Arne RODLOFF, Tom ZIMMERMANN, Alexander KUHLMANN, Janez ZIBERT, Fulvia PENNONI, Fabio DIVINO, Marti CATALÀ, Gianfranco LOVISON, Paolo GIUDICI, Barbara TARANTINO, Francesco BARTOLUCCI, Giovanna Jona LASINIO, Marco MINGIONE, Alessio FARCOMENI, Ajitesh SRIVASTAVA, Pablo MONTERO-MANSO, Aniruddha ADIGA, Benjamin HURT, Bryan LEWIS, Madhav MARATHE, Przemyslaw POREBSKI, Srinivasan VENKATRAMANAN, Rafal P BARTCZUK, Filip DREGER, Anna GAMBIN, Krzysztof GOGOLEWSKI, Magdalena GRUZIEL-SŁOMKA, Bartosz KRUPA, Antoni MOSZYŃSKI, Karol NIEDZIELEWSKI, Jedrzej NOWOSIELSKI, Maciej RADWAN, Franciszek RAKOWSKI, Marcin SEMENIUK, Ewa SZCZUREK, Jakub ZIELIŃSKI, Jan KISIELEWSKI, Barbara PABJAN, Holger KIRSTEN, Yuri KHEIFETZ, Markus SCHOLZ, Przemyslaw BIECEK, Marcin BODYCH, Maciej FILINSKI, Radoslaw IDZIKOWSKI, Tyll KRUEGER, Tomasz OZANSKI, Johannes BRACHER a Sebastian FUNK.
Vydání eLife, eLife Sciences Publications Ltd, 2023, 2050-084X.
Další údaje
Originální jazyk angličtina
Typ výsledku Článek v odborném periodiku
Obor 10100 1.1 Mathematics
Stát vydavatele Velká Británie a Severní Irsko
Utajení není předmětem státního či obchodního tajemství
WWW URL
Impakt faktor Impact factor: 7.700 v roce 2022
Kód RIV RIV/00216224:14310/23:00130636
Organizační jednotka Přírodovědecká fakulta
Doi http://dx.doi.org/10.7554/eLife.81916
UT WoS 001009734700001
Klíčová slova anglicky modelling; forecast; COVID-19; Europe; ensemble; prediction
Štítky rivok
Příznaky Mezinárodní význam, Recenzováno
Změnil Změnila: Mgr. Marie Šípková, DiS., učo 437722. Změněno: 22. 1. 2024 09:38.
Anotace
Background: Short-term forecasts of infectious disease contribute to situational awareness and capacity planning. Based on best practice in other fields and recent insights in infectious disease epidemiology, one can maximise forecasts’ predictive performance by combining independent models into an ensemble. Here we report the performance of ensemble predictions of COVID-19 cases and deaths across Europe from March 2021 to March 2022. Methods: We created the European COVID-19 Forecast Hub, an online open-access platform where modellers upload weekly forecasts for 32 countries with results publicly visualised and evaluated. We created a weekly ensemble forecast from the equally-weighted average across individual models' predictive quantiles. We measured forecast accuracy using a baseline and relative Weighted Interval Score (rWIS). We retrospectively explored ensemble methods, including weighting by past performance. Results: We collected weekly forecasts from 48 models, of which we evaluated 29 models alongside the ensemble model. The ensemble had a consistently strong performance across countries over time, performing better on rWIS than 91% of forecasts for deaths (N=763 predictions from 20 models), and 83% forecasts for cases (N=886 predictions from 23 models). Performance remained stable over a 4-week horizon for death forecasts but declined with longer horizons for cases. Among ensemble methods, the most influential choice came from using a median average instead of the mean, regardless of weighting component models.
Návaznosti
MUNI/A/1615/2020, interní kód MUNázev: Matematické a statistické modelování 5 (Akronym: MaStaMo5)
Investor: Masarykova univerzita, Matematické a statistické modelování 5
MUNI/11/02202001/2020, interní kód MUNázev: Online platforma pro monitoring, analýzu a management epidemických situací v reálném čase
Investor: Masarykova univerzita, Online platforma pro monitoring, analýzu a management epidemických situací v reálném čase
VytisknoutZobrazeno: 3. 9. 2024 04:00