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@article{2358067, author = {SalmantonandGarcía, Jon and Wipfler, Pauline and Leckler, Janine and Nauclér, Pontus and Mallon, Patrick W and BruijningandVerhagen, Patricxia CJL and Schmitt, HJ and Bethe, Ulrich and Olesen, Ole F and Stewart, Fiona A and Albus, Kerstin and Cornely, OA and Husa, Petr}, article_location = {ENGLAND}, article_number = {102676}, doi = {http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.tmaid.2023.102676}, keywords = {WHO R&D Blueprint for action to prevent epidemics; Pandemic; Influenza viruses; Disease X; SARS-CoV-2; SARS-CoV; Ebola virus; Infectious disease}, language = {eng}, issn = {1477-8939}, journal = {TRAVEL MEDICINE AND INFECTIOUS DISEASE}, title = {Predicting the next pandemic: VACCELERATE ranking of the World Health Organization’s Blueprint for Action to Prevent Epidemics}, url = {https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1477893923001369?pes=vor}, volume = {57}, year = {2024} }
TY - JOUR ID - 2358067 AU - Salmanton-García, Jon - Wipfler, Pauline - Leckler, Janine - Nauclér, Pontus - Mallon, Patrick W - Bruijning-Verhagen, Patricxia CJL - Schmitt, HJ - Bethe, Ulrich - Olesen, Ole F - Stewart, Fiona A - Albus, Kerstin - Cornely, OA - Husa, Petr PY - 2024 TI - Predicting the next pandemic: VACCELERATE ranking of the World Health Organization’s Blueprint for Action to Prevent Epidemics JF - TRAVEL MEDICINE AND INFECTIOUS DISEASE VL - 57 IS - 102676 SP - 1-6 EP - 1-6 PB - ELSEVIER SCI LTD SN - 14778939 KW - WHO R&D Blueprint for action to prevent epidemics KW - Pandemic KW - Influenza viruses KW - Disease X KW - SARS-CoV-2 KW - SARS-CoV KW - Ebola virus KW - Infectious disease UR - https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1477893923001369?pes=vor N2 - Introduction: The World Health Organization (WHO)’s Research and Development (R&D) Blueprint for Action to Prevent Epidemics, a plan of action, highlighted several infectious diseases as crucial targets for prevention. These infections were selected based on a thorough assessment of factors such as transmissibility, infectivity, severity, and evolutionary potential. In line with this blueprint, the VACCELERATE Site Network approached infectious disease experts to rank the diseases listed in the WHO R&D Blueprint according to their perceived risk of triggering a pandemic. VACCELERATE is an EU-funded collaborative European network of clinical trial sites, established to respond to emerging pandemics and enhance vaccine development capabilities. Methods: Between February and June 2023, a survey was conducted using an online form to collect data from members of the VACCELERATE Site Network and infectious disease experts worldwide. Participants were asked to rank various pathogens based on their perceived risk of causing a pandemic, including those listed in the WHO R&D Blueprint and additional pathogens. Results: A total of 187 responses were obtained from infectious disease experts representing 57 countries, with Germany, Spain, and Italy providing the highest number of replies. Influenza viruses received the highest rankings among the pathogens, with 79 % of participants including them in their top rankings. Disease X, SARSCoV- 2, SARS-CoV, and Ebola virus were also ranked highly. Hantavirus, Lassa virus, Nipah virus, and henipavirus were among the bottom-ranked pathogens in terms of pandemic potential. Conclusion: Influenza, SARS-CoV, SARS-CoV-2, and Ebola virus were found to be the most concerning pathogens with pandemic potential, characterised by transmissibility through respiratory droplets and a reported history of epidemic or pandemic outbreaks. ER -
SALMANTON-GARCÍA, Jon, Pauline WIPFLER, Janine LECKLER, Pontus NAUCLÉR, Patrick W MALLON, Patricxia CJL BRUIJNING-VERHAGEN, HJ SCHMITT, Ulrich BETHE, Ole F OLESEN, Fiona A STEWART, Kerstin ALBUS a OA CORNELY. Predicting the next pandemic: VACCELERATE ranking of the World Health Organization’s Blueprint for Action to Prevent Epidemics. \textit{TRAVEL MEDICINE AND INFECTIOUS DISEASE}. ENGLAND: ELSEVIER SCI LTD, 2024, roč.~57, č.~102676, s.~1-6. ISSN~1477-8939. Dostupné z: https://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.tmaid.2023.102676.
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